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Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts

theatlantic.com

11–20 of 120 posts

Re: Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts

#11
post #5

The problem with stimulus spending in a place like Spain is that someone will have to lend them the money to spend. They either have to charge pretty high interest (which exacerbates Spain's already high deficit) or give a discount on the interest, such that it no longer reflects the risk the lender is taking. Most anti-austerity calls seem to suggest the latter, which basically amounts to redistribution from those c…

Germany isn't completely innocent here though either, even though it can look like they were frugal during the boom years.

From Michael Pettis [1]:

The strength of the German economy in recent years has largely to do with its export success. But for Germany to run a large current account surplus – the consequence I would argue of domestic policies aimed at suppressing consumption and subsidizing production – Spain and the other peripheral countries of Europe had to run large current account deficits. If they didn’t, the euro would have undoubtedly surged, and with it Germany’s export performance would have collapsed. Very low interest rates in the euro area (set largely by Germany) ensured that the peripheral countries would, indeed, run large trade deficits.

The funding by German banks of peripheral European borrowing, in other words, was a necessary part of deal, arrived at willingly or unwillingly, leading both to Germany’s export success and to the debt problems of the deficit countries.

[1] http://www.mpettis.com/2011/07/19/current-account-dilemma/

Re: Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts

#12

And we still think krugman is a god.

I'm guessing you're not here for any kind of rational discussion, but, could you explain a little bit about your motivation to post that comment? I'm not sure I've seen a pro-Krugman bias on news.yc. Even among most of those who think he's right, I'm not sure that deification is an accurate description.

In this case, it's particularly confusing, since Spain is one of Krugman's "look, austerity is bad" poster children.

Re: Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts

#14
post #3
post #2

The labor disparity between senior workers and young ones will lead to a lot more trouble. Irrational people take out their frustrations on the easiest target; irrational young people even more so. I'm not sure if the article's doom and gloom is actually reflected in reality though. Most people are averse to letting society collapse (especially when they've had a history of it standing upright and stable for a long t…

Spain needs to breed. Their median age is ~41 (US at about 37... ). Not as bad as Japan, but very ominous when you've got a society built on pensions. Ireland is about 35 and it shows (little pale kiddies running around everywhere). That is the only one of the PIIGS I'm betting on.

Germanys is 42 and they are doing fine, its a longterm issue though.

Theyd need something like germanies dual education system that has classic University/College Education plus on the Job apprenticeships were companies train young People for several years. These companies get some Financial benefits and the young get excellent job training plus a low income during that time. Afterwards they are qualified to tackle the more senior jobs. Of course this is a long term process as well, seems already too late.

Re: Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts

#15
post #14
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Spain needs to breed. Their median age is ~41 (US at about 37... ). Not as bad as Japan, but very ominous when you've got a society built on pensions. Ireland is about 35 and it shows (little pale kiddies running around everywhere). That is the only one of the PIIGS I'm betting on.

Germanys is 42 and they are doing fine, its a longterm issue though. Theyd need something like germanies dual education system that has classic University/College Education plus on the Job apprenticeships were companies train young People for several years. These companies get some Financial benefits and the young get excellent job training plus a low income during that time. Afterwards they are qualified to tackle t…

There already is a dual education system. It's called Formación Profesional. Includes on the job apprenticeships, plus a "senior" track, or qualification to college.

Re: Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts

#16
post #5

The problem with stimulus spending in a place like Spain is that someone will have to lend them the money to spend. They either have to charge pretty high interest (which exacerbates Spain's already high deficit) or give a discount on the interest, such that it no longer reflects the risk the lender is taking. Most anti-austerity calls seem to suggest the latter, which basically amounts to redistribution from those c…

Germany isn't completely innocent here though either, even though it can look like they were frugal during the boom years. From Michael Pettis [1]: The strength of the German economy in recent years has largely to do with its export success. But for Germany to run a large current account surplus – the consequence I would argue of domestic policies aimed at suppressing consumption and subsidizing production – Spain an…

It was certainly very convenient for the germans to have some takers for their cheap bonds, but the fact remains that nobody forced the peripheral countries to live beyond their means and to refrain from implementing necessary reforms.

Re: Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts

#19
post #5

The problem with stimulus spending in a place like Spain is that someone will have to lend them the money to spend. They either have to charge pretty high interest (which exacerbates Spain's already high deficit) or give a discount on the interest, such that it no longer reflects the risk the lender is taking. Most anti-austerity calls seem to suggest the latter, which basically amounts to redistribution from those c…

Germany isn't completely innocent here though either, even though it can look like they were frugal during the boom years. From Michael Pettis [1]: The strength of the German economy in recent years has largely to do with its export success. But for Germany to run a large current account surplus – the consequence I would argue of domestic policies aimed at suppressing consumption and subsidizing production – Spain an…

This seems backwards. I think Germany is to blame, but for keeping interest rates too HIGH.

A higher Euro would INCREASE Spain's trade deficit. Spain needs a looser monetary policy than Germany is currently allowing. If the Euro were lower, they could export more and the real value of their debt would decrease.

Re: Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts

#20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany isn't completely innocent here though either, even though it can look like they were frugal during the boom years. From Michael Pettis [1]: The strength of the German economy in recent years has largely to do with its export success. But for Germany to run a large current account surplus – the consequence I would argue of domestic policies aimed at suppressing consumption and subsidizing production – Spain an…

It was certainly very convenient for the germans to have some takers for their cheap bonds, but the fact remains that nobody forced the peripheral countries to live beyond their means and to refrain from implementing necessary reforms.

Nor did anyone force countries like Germany to share a common currency with them.

I've never really gotten why one country would want to share only a currency with another country, while leaving their social and economic policies independent. But now that that's happened, the combination gets to stand or fall as a whole.

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