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Show HN: Bateman, a stock trading system I'm working on

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Re: Show HN: Bateman, a stock trading system I'm working on

#12

Post by matt__ring »

I trade real money on a similar system, but using genetic algorithms. I worked on it for maybe 4 years before putting money on it in 2013. So far, I'm up 1.05% on $284K traded.

I wrote my own fairly pessimistic backtester. Also, I currently use the generated models for buy signals, but I tend to sell earlier than they dictate, because I find it hard to turn down even a modest profit.

Re: Show HN: Bateman, a stock trading system I'm working on

#13

Post by sseveran »

yarou wrote: post #2

Interesting project. I haven't had the time to look at your project in-depth, but keep in mind most retail traders are at a disadvantage due to routing. Most orders are routed through providers such as Getco or Knight Capital, and often you are not aware of whom your counter-party is. Therefore, any expected P&L may vary by x amount of basis points, due to latency and liquidity.

I would assume that if one would deploy a strategy live then it would be done with something like Interactive Brokers. They do allow directed orders although if you cancel them they are not cost effective.

Re: Show HN: Bateman, a stock trading system I'm working on

#14

Post by objclxt »

matt__ring wrote: post #12

I trade real money on a similar system, but using genetic algorithms. I worked on it for maybe 4 years before putting money on it in 2013. So far, I'm up 1.05% on $284K traded. I wrote my own fairly pessimistic backtester. Also, I currently use the generated models for buy signals, but I tend to sell earlier than they dictate, because I find it hard to turn down even a modest profit.

Out of interest, is that better or worse than you were expecting? You don't say when in 2013 you started, but since the start of the year the S&P is up around 6%, the NASDAQ composite is up 4.5%, and the FTSE All Share is up a similar amount.

Assuming you did put the money in in January you would have probably made more profit by simply investing in an index tracker.

Re: Show HN: Bateman, a stock trading system I'm working on

#17

Post by random42 »

pnathan wrote: post #16

Spiffy! A buddy and I have been working on a similar thing (not open sourced (yet?)) for a while off and on. The model we're going to shoot for is to look at online opinion on the stock as a base for estimating rise/fall.

Since stock prices are all about speculation and market psychology, it is an interesting approach. I'd be very interested to know about how you implement.

How do you define and track the "online" world though?

Re: Show HN: Bateman, a stock trading system I'm working on

#18

Post by niggler »

pnathan wrote: post #16

Spiffy! A buddy and I have been working on a similar thing (not open sourced (yet?)) for a while off and on. The model we're going to shoot for is to look at online opinion on the stock as a base for estimating rise/fall.

Derwent Capital Markets (website down now) tried to do this with twitter, but ultimately collapsed:

http://www.idsnews.com/news/story.aspx?id=80469 http://venturebeat.com/2012/05/28/twitter-fueled-hedge-fund-...

Re: Show HN: Bateman, a stock trading system I'm working on

#19

Post by thestranger »

pnathan wrote: post #16

Spiffy! A buddy and I have been working on a similar thing (not open sourced (yet?)) for a while off and on. The model we're going to shoot for is to look at online opinion on the stock as a base for estimating rise/fall.

Reminds me of an article I read awhile back that pointed out a correlation between news about Anne Hathaway and an increase in Berkshire Hathaway stock.

http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2011/03/does-a...

Re: Show HN: Bateman, a stock trading system I'm working on

#20

Post by Choronzon »

Henning, If you are going to go some computer optimisation please read Whites reality check, I applaud your effort but I think the trading strategy as described might be too simple unfortunately and historical optimisation can make anything profitable. In an ideal strategy edge would be present do to an extrapolation of platonistic assumptions and optimisation would further tune this rather than produce profits in itself. Also AAPL is a lousy stock to simulate anything with apart from itself as its basically an complete outlier in terms of statistical factors(std deviation,exposure to news etc)
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