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Intrade Ceases Trading Activity

intrade.com

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Re: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity

#11

Post by gwern »

rishimoko wrote: post #6
niggler wrote: post #4

Slightly OT: what's the current status of online gambling? There were talks of nevada and new jersey loosening restrictions, but most of those were reported by financial analysts and not by the technical community.

It's booming in some circles, millions a month probably: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Category:Gambling sealswithclubs.eu should be mentioned here too.

The problem is that currently the closest thing to a prediction market is Bets of Bitcoin, and they use probably the bizarrest set of rules you have ever had the misfortune to lay eyes on. So.. not really an alternative at all except for the most wildly mispriced bets on it (where you can be sure to come out with a profit regardless of how much the rules screw you).

I see the wiki lists 2 other prediction markets, but they seem to handle sports only.

Re: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity

#12

Post by carbocation »

gwern wrote: post #11
rishimoko wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's booming in some circles, millions a month probably: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Category:Gambling sealswithclubs.eu should be mentioned here too.

The problem is that currently the closest thing to a prediction market is Bets of Bitcoin, and they use probably the bizarrest set of rules you have ever had the misfortune to lay eyes on. So.. not really an alternative at all except for the most wildly mispriced bets on it (where you can be sure to come out with a profit regardless of how much the rules screw you). I see the wiki lists 2 other prediction markets, bu…

Thanks for exposing a market opportunity! Sounds promising, in the right jurisdiction.

Re: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity

#13

Post by rishimoko »

gwern wrote: post #11
rishimoko wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's booming in some circles, millions a month probably: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Category:Gambling sealswithclubs.eu should be mentioned here too.

The problem is that currently the closest thing to a prediction market is Bets of Bitcoin, and they use probably the bizarrest set of rules you have ever had the misfortune to lay eyes on. So.. not really an alternative at all except for the most wildly mispriced bets on it (where you can be sure to come out with a profit regardless of how much the rules screw you). I see the wiki lists 2 other prediction markets, bu…

There's also https://icbit.se for actual futures.

Re: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity

#14

Post by unreal37 »

ghayes wrote: post #2

The title here is misleading. They are "ceasing trading activity" ... "as we do all we can to resume operations as promptly as possible." The statement alludes to "financial irregularities" which are being investigated.

I don't think it's misleading. Reading that statement by Intrade makes the situation seem that dire.

Re: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity

#15

Post by jellicle »

PeterisP wrote: post #3
ghayes wrote: post #2

The title here is misleading. They are "ceasing trading activity" ... "as we do all we can to resume operations as promptly as possible." The statement alludes to "financial irregularities" which are being investigated.

Well, "financial irregularities which in accordance with Irish law oblige the directors ..." is legalese that, in essence, means something like "we've caught someone [stealing from the cookie jar / lying about losses] on a so large scale that the board is not sure if the company will be able to pay the money it owes to everyone". There are just a few cases where the law obliges directors to do something; I'm not an e…

Well, it's worse than that. No significant company would shut down in this manner unless they were 100% certain that they did NOT have the money to pay their debts.

Re: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity

#16

Post by culturestate »

niggler wrote: post #4

Slightly OT: what's the current status of online gambling? There were talks of nevada and new jersey loosening restrictions, but most of those were reported by financial analysts and not by the technical community.

Both Nevada[1] and New Jersey[2] have legalized though there's still quite a bit undecided, especially re: regulations.

1. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57570664/nevada-legalize...

2. http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/03/nj_moving_at_di...

Re: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity

#18

Post by adam »

gwern wrote: post #11
rishimoko wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's booming in some circles, millions a month probably: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Category:Gambling sealswithclubs.eu should be mentioned here too.

The problem is that currently the closest thing to a prediction market is Bets of Bitcoin, and they use probably the bizarrest set of rules you have ever had the misfortune to lay eyes on. So.. not really an alternative at all except for the most wildly mispriced bets on it (where you can be sure to come out with a profit regardless of how much the rules screw you). I see the wiki lists 2 other prediction markets, bu…

Prediction markets don't necessarily have to be real currency and it's a misconception that they are only accurate if you're using real money. We have run a prediction market using fantasy currency for years: http://home.inklingmarkets.com. We also run run private markets for companies...

Re: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity

#19

Post by apineda »

andrewcooke wrote: post #5

is it related to http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6423-12 and the subsequent collapse in volume http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e0c9eea0-7ae4-11e2-915b-00144... ?

Real life version of the ban hammer. What are they called? Power tripping moderators or something like that.

Re: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity

#20

Post by gameshot911 »

The money is gone. Either fraud (founders were skimming off the top all along), or they got hacked (and the 'hack' could have been an inside job as well). That's why they're not paying out - they don't have enough funds available. Same thing happened previously to one of the largest bitcoin exchanges[1].

[1]http://www.dailytech.com/Inside+the+MegaHack+of+Bitcoin+the+...

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