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Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

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Re: Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

#11

Post by pretoriusB »

shanelja wrote: post #2

I hadn't thought of these individual achievements as being that big until I saw them all together in one place and now I can say that this has truly been a breakthrough year all across the technology sector. Every year we seem to be accelerating our speed of development when it comes to technology, I'm only 19 and in my life I've seen us go from 56kb/s internet to 1gb/s internet, go from the rare NASA launch to regul…

>We live in the golden age of human history up to now and I would be willing to place a long bet that in 100 years, we will look back on the last 30 years as the dawn of the modern age.

Well, we live in the golden age of human _technology_.

But, I'd argue, far from the golden age of human history.

And maybe closer than ever to the extinction of mankind, if that "let's fix the climate issue with even more technology and continue on the same 'development for development's sake' path continues. Not to mention crazy politicians with nuclear, biological and what have you weapons on their hands and a battle for global resources like oil and water...

Re: Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

#13

Post by kjackson2012 »

scoot wrote: post #9
joshuahedlund wrote: post #8

The only one I would quibble with is the one that has nothing to do with technology. Sandy was the largest storm ever recorded in the Atlantic, but it was still not as large as the Pacific's Typhoon Tip in 1979. If three decades of accelerating climate change explains Sandy, it doesn't explain Tip, or why its record has yet to be broken.

Yes it does - it's about trends, not isolated occurrences (so in that sense I agree with your quibble, just not with your rationale). The frequency and intensity of extreme weather incidents is on an upward (and exponential) track.

No, it's not. The Earth has always experienced devastating weather-related occurrences. There's nothing about it that suggests things are on a upward and exponential track.

Re: Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

#14

Post by kjackson2012 »

I really hope the one point about communicating with patients in a vegetative state is wrong. Not because it's not a groundbreaking discovery, but the implications are horrifying to me. Imagine all those patients who are left to just lie there their entire lives, and those that like Terri Schiavo that were allowed to starve to death. If they were actual aware of what was going on, that is the most horrifying fate I could imagine.

Re: Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

#16

Post by shawn-butler »

shanelja wrote: post #2

I hadn't thought of these individual achievements as being that big until I saw them all together in one place and now I can say that this has truly been a breakthrough year all across the technology sector. Every year we seem to be accelerating our speed of development when it comes to technology, I'm only 19 and in my life I've seen us go from 56kb/s internet to 1gb/s internet, go from the rare NASA launch to regul…

I think you should critically reevaluate your use of the word modern. We've already never been modern once before. Besides being a lot of fun, making up new words to describe historical trends both real and imagined can also be profitable.

Re: Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

#17

Post by joshuahedlund »

scoot wrote: post #9
joshuahedlund wrote: post #8

The only one I would quibble with is the one that has nothing to do with technology. Sandy was the largest storm ever recorded in the Atlantic, but it was still not as large as the Pacific's Typhoon Tip in 1979. If three decades of accelerating climate change explains Sandy, it doesn't explain Tip, or why its record has yet to be broken.

Yes it does - it's about trends, not isolated occurrences (so in that sense I agree with your quibble, just not with your rationale). The frequency and intensity of extreme weather incidents is on an upward (and exponential) track.

> The frequency and intensity of extreme weather incidents is on an upward (and exponential) track.

I am not one who claims there is no evidence for climate change (I would point to this year's record arctic ice minimum, for instance) but I remain unconvinced that this is true. For example, there is absolutely no positive trend in US F3+ tornadoes[1], or in major US hurricane strikes per decade[2]. I know that's just the US, although the US does have the most tornadoes, but those are just two examples of things that seem like they're becoming more frequent/intense but actually aren't - not even linearly over the past century, much less exponentially.

[1]http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/tornado/clim/E... [2]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml

Re: Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

#18

Post by keenerd »

AlexeiSadeski wrote: post #7

Hurricane Sandy was a Category 1 hurricane at landfall. That's pretty much the opposite of a SUPERSTORM. Much larger hurricanes have hit New England before. For example, the "Great New England Hurricane of 1938" made landfall on Long Island as a Category 3 storm, killing over 600 people. The Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944 also was Category 3, killing 390 people. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_England_Hurricane_of…

Sandy was a big deal was because it landed in a highly overdeveloped area that should not have houses. Building your residence on a sandbar (or on a flood plane or below sea level or under an active volcano) is not exactly the brightest long term thinking.

While global warming is going to make weather more unpredictable, hubris will always be the leading cause of damage.

Re: Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

#19

Post by tgb »

I was really skeptical of this article, but turns out that this is actually a really interesting list. A lot of them are still up-in-the-air as far as end-results and I'd expect at least a couple of them to fall through in the end, but still a really neat collection.

Re: Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

#20

Post by JanezStupar »

pretoriusB wrote: post #11
shanelja wrote: post #2

I hadn't thought of these individual achievements as being that big until I saw them all together in one place and now I can say that this has truly been a breakthrough year all across the technology sector. Every year we seem to be accelerating our speed of development when it comes to technology, I'm only 19 and in my life I've seen us go from 56kb/s internet to 1gb/s internet, go from the rare NASA launch to regul…

> We live in the golden age of human history up to now and I would be willing to place a long bet that in 100 years, we will look back on the last 30 years as the dawn of the modern age. Well, we live in the golden age of human _technology_. But, I'd argue, far from the golden age of human history. And maybe closer than ever to the extinction of mankind, if that "let's fix the climate issue with even more technology…

Enlighten me then, when was golden age of human history then in your opinion?

I have a problem with you new age romantics, bitching about issues of current civilization without providing alternatives or even realizing what "reversing" current state of affairs would really mean.

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