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Technology Is Over

taylorforeman.com

11–20 of 30 posts

Re: Technology Is Over

#11
Everyone seems to be attacking this as a statement about the obviousness of technological limits.

That is exactly what the article is not.

The article seems (at least to me) to be about the uses of technology, and how deeply that interacts with both a) what people want and b) what people are willing to tolerate to get what they want.

The examples here are not architectures or benchmarks, they are stories about the slow change of real life, even if the rate of technological change blurs and accelerates to some degree. It's about the flattening curve of demand and deployment (markets), not of capability.

Yes, the internet, cpu speeds, etc etc, and now LLMs, but the water heater example is an analogy for how "We only want so much of this stuff, and eventually we'll figure out how much is enough". Steve Jobs quotes pin this to consumer tech even more: You don't want the prettiest thing, you want what solves people's real problems in a way that works for them.

TFA is trying to show that you can make a better widget, but its impact might fade into the background, countering the "technoptimist" "singularity" "exponentionaly blah blah", or whatever narrative.

Re: Technology Is Over

#13
> An exponential curve going on infinitely is necessarily a singularity.

Nope. It goes higher and higher faster and faster, but that's not what a singularity is.

Re: Technology Is Over

#14
My question is simply, “Which technology?”

The author I think made a very apt comparison to hot water heaters. I expect in days gone past, there were probably amateur plumbers and HVA/C specialists that were just as obsessed with novel developments in water heating and cooling technology as the author was obsessed with the RAM on their Gateway desktop and the bandwidth of their internet connection. Certainly, you saw this dynamic with motor vehicles back in the 50s and 60s when engine displacement was increasing every year, alongside other new features like fuel injectors and 12V electrical systems. Each model year was a genuine upgrade over the last.

And so too, I feel confident that there will be new technologies which will attract the same kind of fervor even as computers and information technology become commodities as previous technologies did. You can sort of see the development of that culture right now in bioscience, as people share tips on their “supplement stacks,” and their skincare regimens, and track which drugs are passing through the the FDA clinical trial pipeline.

Re: Technology Is Over

#15
post #8

"Technology" isn't just one thing. It's simply been subsumed by a model of technology that actively hurts people, i.e. a16z type projects. That's why we're sick of it. We know that it involves pain and extraction from us of our social circles, sanity, productivity, resources, etc. Compare surveys on AI optimism (tech proxy) for countries where antisocial billionaires are black bagged and sent to an underground prison…

Yeah it's the notion of what is "technology" that's the issue. I'm pretty happy that I can just plug my car (and my lawnmower!) in now instead of going to the gas station every few days. Solar panels and batteries have dropped off a cliff in price over the last few years, so it seems pretty obvious that we'll have ubiquitous clean energy coming simply because it's so cheap. My daily driver computer is now a silent minipc that I paid like $180 for, uses If you want games that create "fun at parties" skills, there's e.g. https://got-feedback.org/ (formerly slopsmith) or https://yarg.in/.

"Big tech" has been trash somewhere between 15 years and always depending on the company. They're all just advertising companies, not tech companies. Mainstream culture has been full of trash too basically always (for similar reasons). You've always needed to be discerning. Blocks ads and ignore their noise. I've never even known when the new apple gadget is coming out.

Re: Technology Is Over

#16
“The techno-optimists, as they’ve so conveniently named themselves, have bet their lives on an infinite exponential. An exponential curve going on infinitely is necessarily a singularity. To them, the “singularity” actually means that all the sacrificing they did of their ability to be normal in the real world will never have to be paid for. A lot of them semi-religiously believe they’ll get to live forever in some abstract super-world where they never pay the cost of being weird at parties. Maybe. But that’s a suspiciously convenient thing for them to think.”

Re: Technology Is Over

#17

Technology is stacked sigmoids. There's a lot more to unlock. What's becoming more important in human's relationship with technology is restraint. Dopamine comes from the journey, not the destination, and for a journey to be meaningful, there needs to be some amount of challenge / struggle. The increasingly important skill to lead a fulfilled existence is learning how to optimally balance ease vs. challenge.

> Technology is stacked sigmoids. There's a lot more to unlock

Sure. But the point of the stacking analogy is the winners from one stack don’t naturally translate to the next one.

Re: Technology Is Over

#18

My question is simply, “Which technology?” The author I think made a very apt comparison to hot water heaters. I expect in days gone past, there were probably amateur plumbers and HVA/C specialists that were just as obsessed with novel developments in water heating and cooling technology as the author was obsessed with the RAM on their Gateway desktop and the bandwidth of their internet connection. Certainly, you saw…

> My question is simply, “Which technology?”

America in 2026 has one technology: AI. We’ve gone culturally, financially and educationally all in on it.

Re: Technology Is Over

#20

Everyone seems to be attacking this as a statement about the obviousness of technological limits. That is exactly what the article is not . The article seems (at least to me) to be about the uses of technology, and how deeply that interacts with both a) what people want and b) what people are willing to tolerate to get what they want. The examples here are not architectures or benchmarks, they are stories about the s…

Right. I don’t full agree with the title, but I think it’s quite plausible that technology as we know it is going sigmoidal. We still use trains, and we’d rather have Shinkansen as our national system than Amtrak, but the railroad industry stopped being where all the talent wanted to be 100+ years ago, and what makes a good or bad train system no longer comes down to steam engines, but resources and politics. Software is in that transition now. Uber didn’t take over the world because of software, but regulatory arbitrage.
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