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Four Time Scales for Technology Development and Deployment

rodneybrooks.com

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Re: Four Time Scales for Technology Development and Deployment

#11
post #10

I read Rodney's past predictions on LLM's. There's not a _single_ one that was high information. Not a single one that made me go "hey this was actually a good call, it was very hard to catch that in hindsight". Almost all his predictions were low signal, just correcting the hype and doom from extremes. If I'm wrong, please show me one thing he said (almost everyone has one thing tbh but lets see) that would make eve…

> It is now worth ~$1 trillion... Oh, so they went public after all. When?

They didn't, its an estimate.

Re: Four Time Scales for Technology Development and Deployment

#12

I read Rodney's past predictions on LLM's. There's not a _single_ one that was high information. Not a single one that made me go "hey this was actually a good call, it was very hard to catch that in hindsight". Almost all his predictions were low signal, just correcting the hype and doom from extremes. If I'm wrong, please show me one thing he said (almost everyone has one thing tbh but lets see) that would make eve…

> Like, the one high signal claim he made turned out to be 25x incorrect!

He has dozens of high signal claims in his prediction blog posts. Picking out one of the ones he got wrong doesn't tell you much. Overall his track record is pretty good. Definitely better calibrated than most people, especially the very anti and very pro LLM people.

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