AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x • Hacker News Board

Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x

#11

Post by discreteevent » Thu, Jul 30, 2026, 7:40 PM UTC

mycentstoo wrote: post #8

My unsolicited thoughts: * AI will drive additional features as development accelerates * There will be a window where fast adopting AI companies can deliver features faster than peers * Those fast adopting AI companies will be able to garner additional revenue * Gap closes as AI benefits slow in their impact to feature development and slower adopting companies catch up * Companies that were faster adopters can no lo…

> There will be a window where fast adopting AI companies can deliver features faster than peers >Those fast adopting AI companies will be able to garner additional revenue

The companies going 50% slower on reliable features that customers want to pay for will continue to wipe the floor with the hyper productive companies producing fluff.

Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x

#12

Post by discreteevent » Thu, Jul 30, 2026, 7:42 PM UTC

UltraSane wrote: post #9

10% is still huge.

10% in profit is huge but that's not what the article is about.

Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x

#13

Post by horticulturist » Thu, Jul 30, 2026, 7:59 PM UTC

The variation in individual developer throughput was as much as 20x pre-AI. 10% is basically nothing. You’d be better off firing your worst performer and replacing them with someone good (or great).

Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x

#14

Post by smcg » Thu, Jul 30, 2026, 8:26 PM UTC

maleero wrote: post #3

10% seems low. I think 1.5-3x is more like it without sacrificing quality. You can easily go 10x if you don’t care about the results too much.

unless AI also speeds up the 84% of work that isn't coding, that is not possible.

Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x

#15

Post by smcg » Thu, Jul 30, 2026, 8:26 PM UTC

UltraSane wrote: post #9

10% is still huge.

it's much lower than common claims about AI.

Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x

#16

Post by satvikpendem » Thu, Jul 30, 2026, 8:51 PM UTC

watwut wrote: post #7

maleero wrote: post #3

10% seems low. I think 1.5-3x is more like it without sacrificing quality. You can easily go 10x if you don’t care about the results too much.

> You can easily go 10x if you don’t care about the results too much. People are also much faster when they dont care about quality at all.

Not really. There's a limit to how much you can focus on and literally type, even caring little about quality.

Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x

#17

Post by UltraSane » Thu, Jul 30, 2026, 9:25 PM UTC

discreteevent wrote: post #12

UltraSane wrote: post #9

10% is still huge.

10% in profit is huge but that's not what the article is about.

A 10% increase to total labor productivity would be huge. It would add trillions to global GDP.

Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x

#18

Post by UltraSane » Thu, Jul 30, 2026, 9:26 PM UTC

smcg wrote: post #15

UltraSane wrote: post #9

10% is still huge.

it's much lower than common claims about AI.

Bit it would still add trillions to global GDP

Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x

#19

Post by watwut » Thu, Jul 30, 2026, 9:36 PM UTC

satvikpendem wrote: post #16

watwut wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can easily go 10x if you don’t care about the results too much. People are also much faster when they dont care about quality at all.

Not really. There's a limit to how much you can focus on and literally type, even caring little about quality.

You dont need to focus if you dont care about quality. Overworked teams do it all the time.

Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x

#20

Post by whateveracct » Thu, Jul 30, 2026, 9:53 PM UTC

maleero wrote: post #3

10% seems low. I think 1.5-3x is more like it without sacrificing quality. You can easily go 10x if you don’t care about the results too much.

3x? a year of work in 4 months?

it's almost August - companies should have two years of progress since Jan 1 2026.