My football predictor scores 0.203 vs. the bookies' 0.198

Re: My football predictor scores 0.203 vs. the bookies' 0.198 – and loses

#11

Post by jqpabc123 » Fri, Jul 24, 2026, 7:58 PM UTC

cmanoliu wrote: post #10

jqpabc123 wrote: post #7

Comparison to bookies is really comparison to betters. Bookies don't really care about winners and losers. They just try to balance the money being bet on each side. Bookies make their money from the "vigorish" --- and a good bookie will win every time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vigorish

I wonder if bookies share between them information about where people places the money.

What is happening with other bookies is not really relevant. All a bookie really cares about are the bets on his books.

As long as the bets are roughly the same on each side (money wise), the bookies work is done. All he has to do is take from the losers and give to the winners --- and take a nice cut for himself.

Re: My football predictor scores 0.203 vs. the bookies' 0.198 – and loses

#12

Post by cmanoliu » Sat, Jul 25, 2026, 6:34 AM UTC

jqpabc123 wrote: post #11

cmanoliu wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if bookies share between them information about where people places the money.

What is happening with other bookies is not really relevant. All a bookie really cares about are the bets on his books. As long as the bets are roughly the same on each side (money wise), the bookies work is done. All he has to do is take from the losers and give to the winners --- and take a nice cut for himself.

I never built this to bet, just for fun, always liked statistics and sports. In the end, better to invest your money in stock market and leave it there, than to think you can make a living out of betting.

Re: My football predictor scores 0.203 vs. the bookies' 0.198 – and loses

#13

Post by jqpabc123 » Sat, Jul 25, 2026, 11:57 AM UTC

cmanoliu wrote: post #12

jqpabc123 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is happening with other bookies is not really relevant. All a bookie really cares about are the bets on his books. As long as the bets are roughly the same on each side (money wise), the bookies work is done. All he has to do is take from the losers and give to the winners --- and take a nice cut for himself.

I never built this to bet, just for fun, always liked statistics and sports. In the end, better to invest your money in stock market and leave it there, than to think you can make a living out of betting.

than to think you can make a living out of betting.

The most sensible, surefire way to make money from betting is to become a bookie.

A good bookie doesn't care about picking winners and he knows precisely how much he will make before the game begins.