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Big Tech Has Suddenly Flipped on the AI Jobs Wipeout Scenario

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11–20 of 106 posts

Re: Big Tech Has Suddenly Flipped on the AI Jobs Wipeout Scenario

#11
> The only thing that matters is if LLMs with sufficient scaling can become frontier AI researchers kicking off the exponential. Everything else is transient

As long as the term “AI” means by-and-large LLMs with additional features sprinkled on top, the answer is no. More likely (without careful vetting by the folks aggregating these models) is that the quality will go down as more and more AI-generated output gets subsumed into these models.

Even without that particular problem, LLMs-as-AI can only give us probabilistic outputs based on inputs; and by definition they’re reliant on humans to provide the training data for their model. Without specialized knowledge or training on that knowledge (And even with it, viz. Meta’s engineering), we don’t have to worry about AI itself. We do have to worry what investors who are looking for outsized returns will do to get those returns, job market be damned.

The problem for us isn’t that AI will take our jobs; it’s that snake-oil salesmen can sell the idea that AI will take our jobs, investors buy into it, companies try it, fire their folks, the snake-oil salesmen IPOs, the companies that bought into this idea implode in some form or fashion, and the salesmen have already taken the money and ran. Of course, we still lose our jobs, but maybe (!) we get them back when this all fails?

Re: Big Tech Has Suddenly Flipped on the AI Jobs Wipeout Scenario

#12

This is all noise. The leaders of these companies are flip-flopping to whatever sounds best for their current agenda - hiring, fundraising, pre-IPO, etc. The only thing that matters is if LLMs with sufficient scaling can become frontier AI researchers kicking off the exponential. Everything else is transient noise.

> The only thing that matters is if LLMs with sufficient scaling can become frontier AI researchers kicking off the exponential. I think we know the answer to that already - LLMs show no sign of improving intelligence and instead providers are going down the ‘agentic’ rabbit hole. There are too many things missing, like a world model, understanding, and taste (in the sense of knowing what is good and what is not good…

As long as LLMs don't understand the different between regurgitating facts and making up stories, they're going to necessarily be limited.

Re: Big Tech Has Suddenly Flipped on the AI Jobs Wipeout Scenario

#14
After watching the AI roll out for a couple years now I'm much more confident that it's just a scam. There is no net positive ROI on AI. It's not good enough, and the "mass job destruction" scenario offsets any marginal gains by eliminating the market for basically all products. That doesn't mean that mediocre C-suites won't try but it only takes 1-2 quarters to feel the burn and back track.

Re: Big Tech Has Suddenly Flipped on the AI Jobs Wipeout Scenario

#15

This is all noise. The leaders of these companies are flip-flopping to whatever sounds best for their current agenda - hiring, fundraising, pre-IPO, etc. The only thing that matters is if LLMs with sufficient scaling can become frontier AI researchers kicking off the exponential. Everything else is transient noise.

Sure, but let’s not pretend that people treated the statements of these ceos as strategic messaging. People very clearly treated what Altman, Zuck, Amodei etc have been saying as predictions, and it hasn’t been until they’ve been proven wrong that people have started with the counter-narrative.

Re: Big Tech Has Suddenly Flipped on the AI Jobs Wipeout Scenario

#16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only thing that matters is if LLMs with sufficient scaling can become frontier AI researchers kicking off the exponential. I think we know the answer to that already - LLMs show no sign of improving intelligence and instead providers are going down the ‘agentic’ rabbit hole. There are too many things missing, like a world model, understanding, and taste (in the sense of knowing what is good and what is not good…

As long as LLMs don't understand the different between regurgitating facts and making up stories, they're going to necessarily be limited.

They are taught the difference through reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards. Pretending you've solved the task or making up a story about how you solved it won't do well in that training step.

Re: Big Tech Has Suddenly Flipped on the AI Jobs Wipeout Scenario

#17
post #4

Dumbasses the lot of them. Took that nonsense to Capitol Hill, trying to tell a bunch of politicians who knew damn well they are only there as long as they can keep their voters employed. They could have asked their own AI what happens when employment reaches 40-50%. Hint: it's never good. They were going to become another problem the government had to solve. Also, UBI is non-starter no matter what Sam Altman believe…

Afer COVID and AI, the only buzzword left is WAR. Doesn't rhyme but we are well beyond funny.

Re: Big Tech Has Suddenly Flipped on the AI Jobs Wipeout Scenario

#19
I kind of wish there was a way to flip the script on the companies that gave up on humans and tried to switch to AI. Make them suffer for their idiocy in the same way that workers suffered or continue to suffer.

If that makes me a bad person, fine. If a few CEO's wind up working at 7-11 to make rent money, all the better.

Re: Big Tech Has Suddenly Flipped on the AI Jobs Wipeout Scenario

#20

This is all noise. The leaders of these companies are flip-flopping to whatever sounds best for their current agenda - hiring, fundraising, pre-IPO, etc. The only thing that matters is if LLMs with sufficient scaling can become frontier AI researchers kicking off the exponential. Everything else is transient noise.

It's important not to miss the fact that AI productivity was a useful excuse for companies looking to conduct layoffs. Did some companies buy the hype? Sure - but the biggest companies would have wanted that sweet stock price layoff bump anyways and AI was a readily available justification to get it.
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