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It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

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Re: It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

#12
I'm having a hard time understanding what the writer is trying to accomplish with this (weird) post, especially the "IQ" part on the side (wtf?). Yes, the goal posts change as the technology changes (this is true of ALL technology), and it turns out that people keep underestimating with each release of this technology what it would actually take to replace a job.

Re: It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

#13
post #3

I think this is true of "AGI" too. AI is already better than us at a bunch of things, and worse at a few. The list of things it's better than us at increases every month. In 5 years, people will still be saying "Well, I can still ride a unicycle blindfolded better than a robot so it's not AGI." AGI is such a meaningless term and puts too much importance on human-level intelligence.

I think we're not putting enough emphasis on the importance of human intelligence. Technology is supposed to serve us, we're not supposed to serve technology.

Re: It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

#14
post #3

I think this is true of "AGI" too. AI is already better than us at a bunch of things, and worse at a few. The list of things it's better than us at increases every month. In 5 years, people will still be saying "Well, I can still ride a unicycle blindfolded better than a robot so it's not AGI." AGI is such a meaningless term and puts too much importance on human-level intelligence.

> "Well, I can still ride a unicycle blindfolded better than a robot so it's not AGI." Can you though? I've seen some videos recently of some pretty darn scary Chinese robots that I suspect might already be capable of riding a unicycle blindfolded if someone set 'em on that task. ;)

Can you link those videos? What I have seen was impressive but far from "riding a unicycle blindfolded". But with time can be surely done. Also yes, there are likely not many humans who can do it, but most could learn it.

Re: It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

#15

You should add a parallel timeline of how many times AI CEOs have claimed their next model is too dangerous to release, AGI is months away, or some white collar job will be obsolete within 6 months. I don’t know anyone in the tech industry who thinks AGI will never happen or that software engineering and white collar jobs can’t be automated. We all read sci fi, you’re not some unique visionary for anticipating AI. Th…

Understandably, the frustration is also around "what happens then?"

Everyone is wondering about what happens if (when?) it finally comes true

We really have to figure out what comes next for your average person. I think the reason no one wants to talk about this is because the answers aren't great. The average person not going to be living a great life in all likelihood, once we have no access to capital anymore

Re: It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

#16

You should add a parallel timeline of how many times AI CEOs have claimed their next model is too dangerous to release, AGI is months away, or some white collar job will be obsolete within 6 months. I don’t know anyone in the tech industry who thinks AGI will never happen or that software engineering and white collar jobs can’t be automated. We all read sci fi, you’re not some unique visionary for anticipating AI. Th…

You don’t know me, but I am in the tech industry and believe AGI will never happen.

Albeit that is because I did a BSc in psychology where I developed a deep distrust for intelligence research and concluded that intelligence is not a useful term in philosophy nor science (and especially not in engineering).

Re: It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

#17
post #3

I think this is true of "AGI" too. AI is already better than us at a bunch of things, and worse at a few. The list of things it's better than us at increases every month. In 5 years, people will still be saying "Well, I can still ride a unicycle blindfolded better than a robot so it's not AGI." AGI is such a meaningless term and puts too much importance on human-level intelligence.

I think we're not putting enough emphasis on the importance of human intelligence. Technology is supposed to serve us, we're not supposed to serve technology.

I agree. I don't think they're mutually exclusive. You can have something smarter than you which you use as a tool.

My point was that there's nothing objectively special about our level of intelligence, so it shouldn't be used as a benchmark.

Re: It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

#19
post #3

I think this is true of "AGI" too. AI is already better than us at a bunch of things, and worse at a few. The list of things it's better than us at increases every month. In 5 years, people will still be saying "Well, I can still ride a unicycle blindfolded better than a robot so it's not AGI." AGI is such a meaningless term and puts too much importance on human-level intelligence.

It’s not meaningless because AGI = genuinely being able to replace humans in almost any job. Sure, AI is getting better at stuff that humans direct it to do, but the fact that a human is required in the loop is super meaningful.
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