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Big Tech is borrowing like never before

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11–20 of 56 posts

Re: Big Tech is borrowing like never before

#11

Is it me? I feel like we are entering an era where it has become possible for one of the big companies to fail.

After the bailouts of 2008, I think the only thing to fear is that the US government will fail first. As long as they can afford to keep big businesses going, they will. Whether things will get bad enough that the government can't afford to do that is an exercise to the reader.

Re: Big Tech is borrowing like never before

#12
post #4

Smart to borrow when money is cheap if you think you can do something more profitable with it.

Also, if you have expectations that future inflation may be high, the leverage of borrowing can make sense as a hedge against your cash equivalent holdings in that scenario.

Re: Big Tech is borrowing like never before

#15

Is it me? I feel like we are entering an era where it has become possible for one of the big companies to fail.

Financially? Sure. Politically? Not a chance, they'll get bailed out or partially nationalized.

Frontier labs will be considered essential to national security, Microsoft is basically a public utility at this point, Facebook is too important for the spread of propaganda (although this one has less of a case/justification for a government bailout), Amazon (via AWS) runs massive parts of the federal gov (along with Azure), Google dying would cause almost an immediate global depression (73% of mobiles run android, the massive ad network).

These companies are so entrenched in day to day operations and into the economy that they cannot fail without ushering in whats effectively dark ages 2.0

Re: Big Tech is borrowing like never before

#16
post #4

Smart to borrow when money is cheap if you think you can do something more profitable with it.

If you’re profitable and can pay it back, it’s better than equity. If there’s any financial risk then it may not be worth the potential loss of control.

Would depend on the yield on debt vs yield on equity (factoring in earnings growth rate)

If your company trades at 100x sales you should probably sell the equity.

Re: Big Tech is borrowing like never before

#17

Is it me? I feel like we are entering an era where it has become possible for one of the big companies to fail.

After the bailouts of 2008, I think the only thing to fear is that the US government will fail first. As long as they can afford to keep big businesses going, they will. Whether things will get bad enough that the government can't afford to do that is an exercise to the reader.

US Government won’t fail. They can certainly just default on all debt and keep on going like many other countries. It will be a shitty country going forward, but not a failed one.

The best thing you can do is diversify assets to be prepared for that scenario, so you do not fall into the hell of a permanent underclass, in perpetual servitude.

Re: Big Tech is borrowing like never before

#18

Is it me? I feel like we are entering an era where it has become possible for one of the big companies to fail.

After the bailouts of 2008, I think the only thing to fear is that the US government will fail first. As long as they can afford to keep big businesses going, they will. Whether things will get bad enough that the government can't afford to do that is an exercise to the reader.

I mean, we are approaching the point where the government can't afford to do that. Debt is near $40 trillion, and debt held by the public has recently just slightly tipped over 100% of the US GDP, so we are long past affordability.

Interest payments on US Debt are already $1T annually. If GDP stops growing faster than the interest rate on the debt, we're "cooked" as the kids say.

If we lose reserve currency status, we are equally screwed.

A big tech bailout isn't going to look like a big cash injection. It would look more like total asset seizure and nationalization of those companies.

Re: Big Tech is borrowing like never before

#20

Is it me? I feel like we are entering an era where it has become possible for one of the big companies to fail.

Financially? Sure. Politically? Not a chance, they'll get bailed out or partially nationalized. Frontier labs will be considered essential to national security, Microsoft is basically a public utility at this point, Facebook is too important for the spread of propaganda (although this one has less of a case/justification for a government bailout), Amazon (via AWS) runs massive parts of the federal gov (along with Azu…

Is Google really a critical dependency for android? I've installed Lineage OS before which worked.
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