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Earlier quoted context omitted.
Let’s say this is the case it still does not explain what the real end game looks like. What do you think?
I don't know. It's a quagmire where America finds itself with no good options. Bibi and Israel set in motion a trap that the USA can't easily escape. Netanyahu never believed America would back down, and America never believed it could lose. So what now? Do you surrender? Do you invade? Trump and Hegseth, being the fools they are, were never equipped to deal with a situation like this. The only outcome they seriously…
More accurately, they've been pushing this trap for decades and US presidents have been sidestepping it for decades.
From that PoV it's always been easily avoided.
A bad peace will be better than this war. I know people want to stick this into some kind of winners vs losers discussion but I for one would be happy if it reliably ended. It's very difficult for me to think of such a terrible peace agreement that I'd personally reject it.
A bad peace will be better than this war. I know people want to stick this into some kind of winners vs losers discussion but I for one would be happy if it reliably ended. It's very difficult for me to think of such a terrible peace agreement that I'd personally reject it.
We're no longer in a position to unilaterally disengage. If the IRGC decides its political establishment is wrong and starts potting random shit again, we'll be dragged back in.
It ain't over until Bibi says it's over. Trump is pissing his pants trying to get out of this anyway he can but Bibi won't let him. I'm sure our military was against this from day one, but the Fox news host and the Real Estate developer thought they knew better but, in the end Bibi and Israel call the shots and America obeys.... Just saying...Junk away...
There is enough frustration between Bibi and Trump that I could see Israel unilaterally trying to blow up this deal massively backfiring. (To the point that it might be in e.g. Hezbollah's strategic interest to goad them into it.)
Materiel - a huge amount of expensive and long lead time to replace missiles/interceptors expended - a $300,000,000 radar station destroyed - like 30 Reaper drones (approximately 1/5 of the total) - 1 AWACs destroyed and 3-5 others heavily damaged (we only have about 20 of them - tons of damage to infrastructure in the area (like refineries, ports, chemical plants)
Geopolitical - primacy of American military power shown to be truly questionable (I consider this as the biggest part of the L; can't decide if it's an unforced error or it was bound to happen under any administration) - Iran now knows it can leverage its drones and missiles to influence the region and world; they don't even need a nuke anymore to project power
I guess if there is a silver lining it's that the conflict has exposed how unprepared some of our doctrines and orders of battle are when dealing against an adversary that needs to operate on a more asymmetric level. But also it feels like that should be already known after years of monitoring the Ukrainian conflict.
Even if the peace holds the whole thing feels like a definite L for the following reasons: Materiel - a huge amount of expensive and long lead time to replace missiles/interceptors expended - a $300,000,000 radar station destroyed - like 30 Reaper drones (approximately 1/5 of the total) - 1 AWACs destroyed and 3-5 others heavily damaged (we only have about 20 of them - tons of damage to infrastructure in the area (li…
Tehran probably needs nukes to project power. As in reärm its proxies and have them go off and start being a nuisance again without real fear of facing any consequences for it.
What Iran has learned–and globally demonstrated–is America is willing to pay more to its enemies than it's willing to spend defending its allies. (We're discussing arranging financing for Iran in an amount equal to what it costs us to support NATO for a decade.)
[1] https://www.ft.com/content/088c14d3-f708-44d8-a306-7996aa521...
Even if the peace holds the whole thing feels like a definite L for the following reasons: Materiel - a huge amount of expensive and long lead time to replace missiles/interceptors expended - a $300,000,000 radar station destroyed - like 30 Reaper drones (approximately 1/5 of the total) - 1 AWACs destroyed and 3-5 others heavily damaged (we only have about 20 of them - tons of damage to infrastructure in the area (li…
A bad peace will be better than this war. I know people want to stick this into some kind of winners vs losers discussion but I for one would be happy if it reliably ended. It's very difficult for me to think of such a terrible peace agreement that I'd personally reject it.
> A bad peace will be better than this war We're no longer in a position to unilaterally disengage. If the IRGC decides its political establishment is wrong and starts potting random shit again, we'll be dragged back in.
This is as unified as Iran is going to get in the near future. So we gotta work with what we have.
A bad peace will be better than this war. I know people want to stick this into some kind of winners vs losers discussion but I for one would be happy if it reliably ended. It's very difficult for me to think of such a terrible peace agreement that I'd personally reject it.
It's just sad how much wealth and how many lives have been spent for absolutely nothing.