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Thermodynamics rules future orbital data centers

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Re: Thermodynamics rules future orbital data centers

#11

Post by arjie »

Only a single order of magnitude of cost? So a $4b data center on Earth delivers the same value as a $40b data center in Space? So if you have greater than a 95% operating margin and capacity constraints (either due to nation environmental law, power limits, or other such blockers) then this is a no-brainer - a 95% operating margin becomes a 50% operating margin. The return on capital is much much lower so you have to be anticipating cheaper capital, even cheaper costs than this in practice, or something else.

Inference margins are some 70% right now? So it needs quite some work on both sides but this seems to make it seem more achievable than I previously thought.

Re: Thermodynamics rules future orbital data centers

#12

Post by Pxtl »

jobead wrote: post #8

Why is everyone so focused on heat when cosmic rays randomly scrambling memory is going to be a much bigger problem?

Cosmic rays can probably be resolved with some parity bits and redundancy. Especially since these don't have to be located way up in geosynch, lower orbits get you more magnetosphere protection.

Not that it isn't a problem, but I think heat dissipation will have the edge.

Re: Thermodynamics rules future orbital data centers

#13

Post by giraffe_lady »

arjie wrote: post #11

Only a single order of magnitude of cost? So a $4b data center on Earth delivers the same value as a $40b data center in Space? So if you have greater than a 95% operating margin and capacity constraints (either due to nation environmental law, power limits, or other such blockers) then this is a no-brainer - a 95% operating margin becomes a 50% operating margin. The return on capital is much much lower so you have t…

It assumes $44/kg to launch into orbit. Idk where that came from if it's a musk claim or what but it's ludicrous against current costs. Currently still at thousands/kg and dropping but nowhere near $44 and I haven't heard anyone claim that's likely who isn't selling a rocket company.

Re: Thermodynamics rules future orbital data centers

#14

Post by mannykannot »

2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #4

> At ABI Research, where I work as an aerospace analyst, we did a rough total-cost-of-ownership comparison between a data center on Earth and one in space. It showed that the cost to launch and run a GPU in space for a year is at least an order of magnitude higher than the same feat in a terrestrial data center.

And in the next paragraph:

"However, there are niche applications where the much higher costs of computing in space could be justified. Examples include ... active collision avoidance in the increasingly crowded low Earth orbit."

A self-justifying purpose!

Re: Thermodynamics rules future orbital data centers

#15

Post by rbanffy »

Pxtl wrote: post #12
jobead wrote: post #8

Why is everyone so focused on heat when cosmic rays randomly scrambling memory is going to be a much bigger problem?

Cosmic rays can probably be resolved with some parity bits and redundancy. Especially since these don't have to be located way up in geosynch, lower orbits get you more magnetosphere protection. Not that it isn't a problem, but I think heat dissipation will have the edge.

You can also place the most sensitive electronics inside a module within the propellant tank. That also should help a lot.

Re: Thermodynamics rules future orbital data centers

#16

Post by rtkwe »

CuriouslyC wrote: post #7

Honestly, data centers in the ocean make so much more sense than data centers in space it's kind of silly, but Mr Moneybags owns a rocket company he's trying to pump and dump, not a submarine company, so here we are.

It's like the idea of Mars as a backup to human civilization. The technology required to make Mars livable and independent from Earth is so advanced it would allow you to survive basically anything here on Earth already.

Re: Thermodynamics rules future orbital data centers

#17

Post by rbanffy »

CuriouslyC wrote: post #7

Honestly, data centers in the ocean make so much more sense than data centers in space it's kind of silly, but Mr Moneybags owns a rocket company he's trying to pump and dump, not a submarine company, so here we are.

I would suggest data centres near the arctic - it's close to most of the Northern hemisphere's users, presents an easy option for cooling (the place is a heat sink), and, with collapsing glaciers, there will be abundant hydro power to be used.

It has the killer feature of allowing a human to walk up to a rack and replace a component.

Re: Thermodynamics rules future orbital data centers

#18

Post by stackghost »

arjie wrote: post #11

Only a single order of magnitude of cost? So a $4b data center on Earth delivers the same value as a $40b data center in Space? So if you have greater than a 95% operating margin and capacity constraints (either due to nation environmental law, power limits, or other such blockers) then this is a no-brainer - a 95% operating margin becomes a 50% operating margin. The return on capital is much much lower so you have t…

>So a $4b data center on Earth delivers the same value as a $40b data center in Space?

It may do so, initially, compared to a new-build DC.

But, critically, you can upgrade the racks in an already-built DC without demolishing the entire building. You can't do that in orbit, so the full lifecycle ROI is lower.

Orbital DCs are constrained by cooling and by bandwidth. Even a space-to-ground laser (which does not currently exist in a sufficiently-mature form) has a fraction of the bandwidth of a proper terrestrial fiber line. So you're paying at least 10x for essentially a disposable datacenter that can't move as much data in or out, and likely will not be as powerful as a terrestrial DC because of the cooling constraint, just to have it in space because reasons.

I don't see the business case, at all.

This is so transparently another hyperloop-esque pipe dream invented for the sole purpose of inflating SpaceX's valuation.

Re: Thermodynamics rules future orbital data centers

#20

Post by cmrdporcupine »

CuriouslyC wrote: post #7

Honestly, data centers in the ocean make so much more sense than data centers in space it's kind of silly, but Mr Moneybags owns a rocket company he's trying to pump and dump, not a submarine company, so here we are.

Corrosion is one hell of a problem in salt water.

I think the specific attraction to space is the copious massive amounts of free solar energy, isn't it?

(In reality, they want to build the torment nexus at the Lagrange points because that would just be edgy-as-fuck)

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