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The Abundance Illusion

carlyle.com

11–20 of 46 posts

Re: The Abundance Illusion

#11
Odd framing. Every country, not just the US, is drawing down its oil stockpiles, including China[1]. Chinese investments in electrification will certainly pay dividends for as long as the strait of Hormuz remains closed, but they will only be partially shielded from the pain that will hit global oil markets once reserves run out, which as the author points out will probably happen this summer.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-seen-tapping-d...

Re: The Abundance Illusion

#12
post #8

61% AI generated, according to Pangram https://www.pangram.com/history/e5a00ace-94cc-436e-b87b-a094... c'mon, you're Carlyle, a trusted institution for financial advice! How can I trust what you're saying if the AI-generated text is so blatantly obvious?

Is there any reason to trust Pangram's tool over Carlyle's reputation? I don't know whether this was AI generated or not, but an online tool claiming it's AI generated doesn't sway my opinion much. Are there any studies showing that Pangram's tool is well calibrated for this type of article? If not, what makes you trust it?

(I'm not sure why it was marked that way, but I vouched to bring your comment back from auto-dead. I glanced at your comment history, but don't see any clear reason for this.)

Re: The Abundance Illusion

#13

Sometimes when I’m programming I get a little lost in trying to make a pipeline more efficient. While it’s a noble goal, I have to remind myself: “somewhere here, you have to pay the piper”. No matter how you squeeze the bits, distribute the work, or optimize the input, you still have to draw those pixels to the display. The simplification and optimization makes it easier somewhere in the process, but all of those pi…

[deleted]

Re: The Abundance Illusion

#14
post #9

'Figure 2: US energy exports outpace production' We're producing 14,000,000 barrels of oil per day and exporting about 6,000,000 per day, but the author used a graph with two different y-axis scales to make the lines cross so it looks like more oil is being exported than produced.

And to top it off both Y axes have the exact same label. The graph has no indication as to which line belongs to which axis. Of course, we can easily infer which is which from the surrounding article, but still... terrible data visualization

Re: The Abundance Illusion

#15

“…for energy is the lifeblood of this society and when the chips are down he who controls the energy supply controls Planet. In former times the energy monopoly was called ‘The Power Company’; we intend to give this name an entirely new meaning.” — CEO Nwabudike Morgan, The Centauri Monopoly

Speaking of grand names with extra meanings, I admit I did smirk and chuckle at TFA's "The New Joule Order."

Re: The Abundance Illusion

#16
post #12
post #8

61% AI generated, according to Pangram https://www.pangram.com/history/e5a00ace-94cc-436e-b87b-a094... c'mon, you're Carlyle, a trusted institution for financial advice! How can I trust what you're saying if the AI-generated text is so blatantly obvious?

Is there any reason to trust Pangram's tool over Carlyle's reputation? I don't know whether this was AI generated or not, but an online tool claiming it's AI generated doesn't sway my opinion much. Are there any studies showing that Pangram's tool is well calibrated for this type of article? If not, what makes you trust it? (I'm not sure why it was marked that way, but I vouched to bring your comment back from auto-d…

I only went to Pangram because I read through the essay and could not help but notice the Claude-like sentence structure and AI-isms in it, which distracted me and completely made me distrust the thesis of the piece.

My understanding is that Pangram is the best out of all of the AI detectors and if there is a better one I'm happy to switch to it. And it's easier to point to them than to give explicit sentences and examples about why it reads so AI-generated (and since you want it, it's these sentences in particular: "The message was unambiguous: energy is finite, security is earned, and comfort has a cost.", "That template is being applied again today — and markets have accepted it.", "One country never made the West’s mistake.", etc.)

Reading through it again, there are so many emdashes. And don't get me wrong, I was a liberal user of emdashes before AI! But just like, if your job is to communicate your thoughts to a wide audience at least respect their intelligence enough and not rely on crutches just to get an article out against a deadline.

Re: The Abundance Illusion

#17
post #9

'Figure 2: US energy exports outpace production' We're producing 14,000,000 barrels of oil per day and exporting about 6,000,000 per day, but the author used a graph with two different y-axis scales to make the lines cross so it looks like more oil is being exported than produced.

Wow, that’s an egregious chart crime. Surely there’s a way to make a chart that isn’t so dishonest. Just plotting the SPR level would make the same point honestly.

Re: The Abundance Illusion

#18
post #9

'Figure 2: US energy exports outpace production' We're producing 14,000,000 barrels of oil per day and exporting about 6,000,000 per day, but the author used a graph with two different y-axis scales to make the lines cross so it looks like more oil is being exported than produced.

And to top it off both Y axes have the exact same label. The graph has no indication as to which line belongs to which axis. Of course, we can easily infer which is which from the surrounding article, but still... terrible data visualization

I thought the same thing about matching the line to the axis, but the legend is marked with LHS and RHS. It's very subtle.

Re: The Abundance Illusion

#19
post #6

> The hard work Carter asked for — building the physical capacity to never need the buffer — was quietly abandoned. But since then, US natural gas production doubled [1], and solar power is growing exponentially [2]. Leaving that out of the history seems excessively gloomy. [1] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9050us2a.htm [2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/183447/us-energy-generat...

The person named in the byline (can we still call them "author" when Claude wrote the text?) may have included "be pessimistic" in their prompt.

Re: The Abundance Illusion

#20
post #12
post #8

61% AI generated, according to Pangram https://www.pangram.com/history/e5a00ace-94cc-436e-b87b-a094... c'mon, you're Carlyle, a trusted institution for financial advice! How can I trust what you're saying if the AI-generated text is so blatantly obvious?

Is there any reason to trust Pangram's tool over Carlyle's reputation? I don't know whether this was AI generated or not, but an online tool claiming it's AI generated doesn't sway my opinion much. Are there any studies showing that Pangram's tool is well calibrated for this type of article? If not, what makes you trust it? (I'm not sure why it was marked that way, but I vouched to bring your comment back from auto-d…

Yes there are studies, for example last year Pangram's false positives were measured to be under 0.5%.

https://www.pangram.com/blog/third-party-pangram-evals

Personally, at first I thought these sorts of tools were dumb and wouldn't really work, but I think it works because it just isn't designed to be "adversarial". If you want your AI to trick Pangram, you can make an AI to trick Pangram. It just catches people who are cutting and pasting from the AIs without putting any more effort into hiding it.

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