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Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

matteast.io

11–20 of 219 posts

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#11
> AN ESSAY IN SCROLLS

I'd have preferred the essay. This kind of Claude Code landing page turns people off when the content is otherwise meaningful.

The target audience will be looking for any reason to excuse this logic, and by vibe coding them a website you've given them their reason.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#13
post #2

You never know what inflation gonna be in futute. In some countries that turned into autocracies with strong and long standing leaders who love traditional values and religion inflation can easily be 30-70% a year. Then not only 4.3T reachable, but even 43T.

China launched a direct competitor on June 2nd "China launches debut mission of Falcon 9-like rocket with no advance notice" https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/... Spacex is going to get rekt, China has all the materials and workforce

> Spacex is going to get rekt, China has all the materials and workforce

According to their brief, most of the revenue is going to come from AI!

The rockets are apparently just "minor" now.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#14
post #2

You never know what inflation gonna be in futute. In some countries that turned into autocracies with strong and long standing leaders who love traditional values and religion inflation can easily be 30-70% a year. Then not only 4.3T reachable, but even 43T.

at that inflation rate the US dollar would lose its reserve currency status so I doubt it

at some point interest rates should reach double digits like in the 70s following oil crisis

the only crazy scenario for spaceX is it does space exploration/mining and finds something extremely exotic or valuable and sought after.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#15
post #8

The actual takeaway question is "is Elon Musk on a frontier of his own — or is the market extrapolating one proven outlier onto an unproven one?" The HN title editorializes its own answer to the author's question.

it's a rhetorical question, not a real one. the author's inclination is clear as day.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#16
post #2

You never know what inflation gonna be in futute. In some countries that turned into autocracies with strong and long standing leaders who love traditional values and religion inflation can easily be 30-70% a year. Then not only 4.3T reachable, but even 43T.

China launched a direct competitor on June 2nd "China launches debut mission of Falcon 9-like rocket with no advance notice" https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/... Spacex is going to get rekt, China has all the materials and workforce

Well, SpaceX is supposed to be more about AI than low cost orbital launches. At least that’s what their roadshow is claiming.

But either way, yeah, I’m not willing to bet much money on USD4.3T unless we can get some serious financial engineering, (read “circular deals”), going.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#17
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China launched a direct competitor on June 2nd "China launches debut mission of Falcon 9-like rocket with no advance notice" https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/... Spacex is going to get rekt, China has all the materials and workforce

> Spacex is going to get rekt, China has all the materials and workforce According to their brief, most of the revenue is going to come from AI! The rockets are apparently just "minor" now.

That must be a mistake, revenue isn't the word for the money you're going to throw in the furnace.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#18
post #2

You never know what inflation gonna be in futute. In some countries that turned into autocracies with strong and long standing leaders who love traditional values and religion inflation can easily be 30-70% a year. Then not only 4.3T reachable, but even 43T.

China launched a direct competitor on June 2nd "China launches debut mission of Falcon 9-like rocket with no advance notice" https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/... Spacex is going to get rekt, China has all the materials and workforce

China has multiple reusable rocket programs, the reuse will become key to driving down costs.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#19
I think the US is in such a fucked up place economically, that the stock market is so overheated and will cause grave inflation, but it's the only lever left to pull for the government, that it will cause havoc within the next 10 years.

SpaceX or any of AI companies for that matter is absolutely not worth their money, but they will be carried through by government legislation, because otherwise the economy will be fucked for the US.

SpaceX ... 4.3 trillion...what the fuck are you on about

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