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We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

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Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#11

Post by killingtime74 »

p-e-w wrote: post #6

If SpaceX is indeed overvalued (which I have no opinion on), it above all else demonstrates how unimportant spaceflight still is. SpaceX has been the only game in town for quite a while now, to such an extent that the intelligence agencies of foreign governments have no alternative but to launch with SpaceX. They now do more orbital launches than the entire rest of the world combined. If they really are worth less th…

I think you are conflating mattering and making money. You can matter a lot, generate a lot of social good and not make money.

This article is just about the making money part.

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#13

Post by thrownthatway »

SeanAnderson wrote: post #4

Everyone says SpaceX IPO price is too high, but it's the most interesting IPO in a long time, it's critical to the US government, and America is, frankly, addicted to gambling. I'm not convinced it's going anywhere but up for a long while.

[dead]

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#14

Post by mlyle »

p-e-w wrote: post #6

If SpaceX is indeed overvalued (which I have no opinion on), it above all else demonstrates how unimportant spaceflight still is. SpaceX has been the only game in town for quite a while now, to such an extent that the intelligence agencies of foreign governments have no alternative but to launch with SpaceX. They now do more orbital launches than the entire rest of the world combined. If they really are worth less th…

SpaceX is important to launch and telecom, which are two big space verticals but not all of space.

Further, space is just reaching the point it can really grow.

Space is strategically important but perhaps not as directly economically valuable as Microsoft yet, and SpaceX is just a fraction of that value.

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#15

Post by oldfuture »

And the prospectus says it plainly: "Mr. Musk will be able to control the outcome of matters requiring shareholder approval."

Musk holds over 85% voting power through Class B super-voting shares (10 votes/share). Public investors combined will have 15%.

What Musk Controls:

- CEO removal = his consent. You can't fire him even if he destroys the company

- Take business for himself. SpaceX gets a rocket deal? Musk can say "I'll do it at Tesla instead"

- 85% voting forever. No expiration, no time limit, permanent control

- Board elections. You have no power to elect directors you trust

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#16

Post by credit_guy »

kldavis4 wrote: post #10
m-hodges wrote: post #2

> Even at $63 per share, we give SpaceX a lot of benefit of the doubt in two of the three scenarios, in which we assume the company can achieve a rapidly reusable Starship rocket enabling multiple launches per week and successfully commercialize data centers in space. > In our downside scenario, orbital data centers won’t work or offer any advantage over terrestrial ones. We surmise that the company, having invested…

The orbital data center thing is really strange. Without some kind of massive technological breakthrough the physics of an orbital data center make no sense. Napkin math for a single data center including solar panels, radiators, compute and structure is somewhere on the order of ~6500 tonnes. Let's say Starship can put 100-150 tonnes into orbit per launch, that is somewhere between 40-65 launches for just one single…

> Let's say Starship can put 100-150 tonnes into orbit per launch, that is somewhere between 40-65 launches for just one single orbital data center.

Ok. And why does it follow from this that the physics of an orbital data center makes no sense?

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#17

Post by hparadiz »

kldavis4 wrote: post #10
m-hodges wrote: post #2

> Even at $63 per share, we give SpaceX a lot of benefit of the doubt in two of the three scenarios, in which we assume the company can achieve a rapidly reusable Starship rocket enabling multiple launches per week and successfully commercialize data centers in space. > In our downside scenario, orbital data centers won’t work or offer any advantage over terrestrial ones. We surmise that the company, having invested…

The orbital data center thing is really strange. Without some kind of massive technological breakthrough the physics of an orbital data center make no sense. Napkin math for a single data center including solar panels, radiators, compute and structure is somewhere on the order of ~6500 tonnes. Let's say Starship can put 100-150 tonnes into orbit per launch, that is somewhere between 40-65 launches for just one single…

The video they posted today outlines their specs. They are gonna be smaller. About 100T. Based on Starlink architecture but with way larger radiators and solar panels. Apparently the design is simpler than existing Starlinks because it has fewer different parts.

Specs: https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/2064108916611420273?s=20

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#18

Post by jiggawatts »

kldavis4 wrote: post #10
m-hodges wrote: post #2

> Even at $63 per share, we give SpaceX a lot of benefit of the doubt in two of the three scenarios, in which we assume the company can achieve a rapidly reusable Starship rocket enabling multiple launches per week and successfully commercialize data centers in space. > In our downside scenario, orbital data centers won’t work or offer any advantage over terrestrial ones. We surmise that the company, having invested…

The orbital data center thing is really strange. Without some kind of massive technological breakthrough the physics of an orbital data center make no sense. Napkin math for a single data center including solar panels, radiators, compute and structure is somewhere on the order of ~6500 tonnes. Let's say Starship can put 100-150 tonnes into orbit per launch, that is somewhere between 40-65 launches for just one single…

The actual “plan” is to just put a couple of GPUs in each Starlink satellite for inference.

They’re not launching something the size of a building!

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#19

Post by adgjlsfhk1 »

credit_guy wrote: post #16
kldavis4 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The orbital data center thing is really strange. Without some kind of massive technological breakthrough the physics of an orbital data center make no sense. Napkin math for a single data center including solar panels, radiators, compute and structure is somewhere on the order of ~6500 tonnes. Let's say Starship can put 100-150 tonnes into orbit per launch, that is somewhere between 40-65 launches for just one single…

> Let's say Starship can put 100-150 tonnes into orbit per launch, that is somewhere between 40-65 launches for just one single orbital data center. Ok. And why does it follow from this that the physics of an orbital data center makes no sense?

Because 50 rocket launches seems hard to make cheaper than a building.
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