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The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

montanaskeptic.substack.com

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Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#11

Post by ChadNauseam »

riv991 wrote: post #8

I liked Matt Levine's take in his latest podcast. You buy an index because you want to own the market. If you want to own the market in 2026 you want to own SpaceX and Anthropic, and probably OpenAI too. That said, if you think this is as bad as the article claims you'll obviously buy SpaceX at IPO, then sell it when Index funds are obligated to buy.

> That said, if you think this is as bad as the article claims you'll obviously buy SpaceX at IPO, then sell it when Index funds are obligated to buy.

The price at IPO will obviously be influenced by expectations of a future purchase by index funds... as an analogy, if it became public knowledge that next week, 1,000,000 people would all be required to buy gold, the price of gold would go up today, not next week

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#13

Post by dogwalker5000 »

sschueller wrote: post #6

The point-to-point travel with starship is the one that urks me the most. It is completely unrealistic and will never happen. They have Zürich, Switzerland as a destination. There is no place in all of Zürich to facility such a thing, you will blow out every window in the city at each launch. Absolutely ridiculous that anyone would take this serious. Also don't get me started on data centers in space idea... When the…

> When the Chinese land on the moon sometime in 2030 and the US still doesn't have a way to get there, will Elon finally reap the consequences for his lies or just the interim NASA admin that gave Space X the contract?

In all likelihood, neither.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#14

Post by simonjgreen »

riv991 wrote: post #8

I liked Matt Levine's take in his latest podcast. You buy an index because you want to own the market. If you want to own the market in 2026 you want to own SpaceX and Anthropic, and probably OpenAI too. That said, if you think this is as bad as the article claims you'll obviously buy SpaceX at IPO, then sell it when Index funds are obligated to buy.

This IPO marks and inflection point where a fund that tracks whole market value shifts in definition, because of the forced rush value nature of the rule changes.

If the fast entry rule changes hadn’t happened I would agree with you entirely.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#15

Post by avaer »

tick_tock_tick wrote: post #5

This is just the dude that's famous for getting Tesla wrong constantly? If he's convinced it's going south it's probably an easy 100% gain from the IPO.

That's not an argument for. Maybe we don't want to live in a world of thievery, or be thieves ourselves.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#16

Post by saltyoldman »

SwellJoe wrote: post #9
saltyoldman wrote: post #4

This is just eds. Same guy here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSLAQ He's got some kind of beef with Elon and has predicted TSLA stock will crash many times.

It is reasonable to predict TSLA stock will, someday, drop to something roughly reflective of the value of the company. It has a long way to fall to reach that point, but, there's no reason to think it won't happen eventually. The market can remain irrational for a long time, but the facts are what they are.

This is like ANY company. What company will last forever. Not many.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#18

Post by andsoitis »

avaer wrote: post #12
khazhoux wrote: post #10

How can a public sale ever be a theft?

Maybe you didn't know this but: - many funds owned by the public will buy this, so people will be indirectly invested and could lose money - if this affects the economy, it will affect everyone

All investments in equities carry risk of losing money. You also have a choice how much, if any, you are in the stock market and which stocks. As the market conditions change or the economy changes, it is your responsibility to manage your own investments.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#19

Post by chii »

simonjgreen wrote: post #14
riv991 wrote: post #8

I liked Matt Levine's take in his latest podcast. You buy an index because you want to own the market. If you want to own the market in 2026 you want to own SpaceX and Anthropic, and probably OpenAI too. That said, if you think this is as bad as the article claims you'll obviously buy SpaceX at IPO, then sell it when Index funds are obligated to buy.

This IPO marks and inflection point where a fund that tracks whole market value shifts in definition, because of the forced rush value nature of the rule changes. If the fast entry rule changes hadn’t happened I would agree with you entirely.

The rule change where nasdaq adds a weighting factor to spacex's float is what causes distortions - it artificially increases the size of spacex's cap weight without actually having more shares.

Fortunately, this only affects indices that follow nasdaq, and from what i know, no other index is following this. That means it's "safe" to purchase a globally diversified, cap weighted index fund (safe as in the float isn't manipulated).

People talk of the demise of passive investing due to this, but most of the commentary fail to mention it's a specific, nasdaq thing and not a general change.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#20

Post by l23k4 »

avaer wrote: post #12
khazhoux wrote: post #10

How can a public sale ever be a theft?

Maybe you didn't know this but: - many funds owned by the public will buy this, so people will be indirectly invested and could lose money - if this affects the economy, it will affect everyone

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