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Canada in Technical Recession

cbc.ca

11–20 of 43 posts

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#11

I’m surprised it’s taken this long to get here. Talking to a few friends up there, the country has been feeling economically depressed for the last couple of years.

The formal and traditional definition of a recession means a regression in GDP growth.

Economic malaise is orthogonal to the technical definition of a recession, though it is often correlated. And conversely, economic growth isn't always correlated with positive feelings (eg. South Korea and Canada in the 2010s)

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#12
post #2

Considering all of Trump’s shenanigans it’s impressive it’s just that. With Hormuz, tariffs, and America first, this is the equivalent of a fender dent after spinning out on black ice.

Given canada has so much oil,is the hormuz situation really a net negative for canada ecconomically? Like obviously its terrible in general, but id expect higher oil prices to help starve off a recesion.

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#16
post #12
post #2

Considering all of Trump’s shenanigans it’s impressive it’s just that. With Hormuz, tariffs, and America first, this is the equivalent of a fender dent after spinning out on black ice.

Given canada has so much oil,is the hormuz situation really a net negative for canada ecconomically? Like obviously its terrible in general, but id expect higher oil prices to help starve off a recesion.

Global market for oil. If the oil intensity of your economy is high, higher oil prices impacting all goods/services will outweigh increased oilel revenues.

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#17

I’m surprised it’s taken this long to get here. Talking to a few friends up there, the country has been feeling economically depressed for the last couple of years.

The formal and traditional definition of a recession means a regression in GDP growth. Economic malaise is orthogonal to the technical definition of a recession, though it is often correlated. And conversely, economic growth isn't always correlated with positive feelings (eg. South Korea and Canada in the 2010s)

This is not really true. Consumer confidence has a direct impact on GDP in terms of consumption. Lower confidence = lower consumption. Other components of GDP (Investment, Government spending, Net exports) can increase at the same time which can result in no net change, or even positive growth despite decreases in consumer spending. But saying consumer confidence (ie consumption) has no correlation with GDP is incorrect. This is basic macroeconomics.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/fundamental/103002.asp

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#18
post #15

I wonder to what extent the clamp down on immigration is related to this. Feels like a factor that gets lost with everyone blaming trump (which dont get me wrong, he deserves)

> I wonder to what extent the clamp down on immigration is related to this

It doesn't hurt but it doesn't really help either.

According to a buddy of mine from my policy days, GAC has always known there were issues with how immigration was managed in Canada but their diplomatic posts tend to severely lack intel and law enforcement attaches unlike most other foreign services, which made background checking difficult. There was also a recognition internally that the kinds of immigrants Canada wanted would be poached via an O-1 anyhow, so there was a perverse incentive around how skilled immigration was managed. And add to that the fact that the provinces themselves also managed immigration to a certain degree. All that led to a bureaucratic breakdown.

Additionally, when even Canadian policymakers are actively targeting American finance, VC, and lobbying jobs (like my friend), it shows you that there are deeper, fundamental issues. Heck, Carney only came back to Canada because his door to 10 Downing Street was effectively shut due to BoJo.

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#19
I have zero knowledge of economics, so maybe someone can help me with the question that's been bothering me lately. Why is being in recession or not decided based on figures not adjusted for inflation? I mean, a large part of Europe is technically not in recession, but growing at a rate that's much lower than inflation is no real growth at all, is it? How does it work?
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