Any chance there is a prediction market for this that we can use, since research has shown they tend to be more accurate than experts?
How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?
11–20 of 87 posts
Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?
#12> The overlapping AGI definition I use here is "Most purely cognitive labor is automatable at better quality, speed, and cost than humans". For some of these researchers, saying they use this definitions is a bit of a stretch, but I included everyone who I judged as close enough to be informative. Seems "AGI" is on the same level as "art" or "love" in that everyone knows what we're talking about but no one can nail d…
I have no idea why this "AGI is not even well defined" meme gained so much traction recently. AGI is something that can do everything better than humans. Write a novel, seduce someone, prove a theorem, fix a pipe, whatever. And it's clear right now we don't have it.
Which humans? "Humans" are not fungible objects, no matter what the gray-wool-suit set says. The LLMs are already replacing human workers on the bottom of the food chain. Are they perfect? No. Are the humans they are replacing perfect? No. At that point it becomes about tradeoffs.
If AGI is "better at every human at everything" that is ASI, which is a different breed of cat.
Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?
#13Amodei still predicts 2028, the same year when we'll have full self driving and Mars settlements.
So far all he has is this little code stealing application that could be replaced by git clone and sed for stripping the license.
The times before the Internet when Scientology people had to go into the streets to recruit people were nice. I wish we could put him and his ilk on some Claudology remote island, cut all Internet cables and enjoy the world without dorks and criminals that have been given a megaphone.
Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?
#14Earlier quoted context omitted.
I have no idea why this "AGI is not even well defined" meme gained so much traction recently. AGI is something that can do everything better than humans. Write a novel, seduce someone, prove a theorem, fix a pipe, whatever. And it's clear right now we don't have it.
Given your definition what's the difference between AGI and superintelligence? AGI should at least match, not surpass humans in every cognitive task.
I guess AGI is the breaking point and superintelligence is everything above?
Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?
#15> The overlapping AGI definition I use here is "Most purely cognitive labor is automatable at better quality, speed, and cost than humans". For some of these researchers, saying they use this definitions is a bit of a stretch, but I included everyone who I judged as close enough to be informative. Seems "AGI" is on the same level as "art" or "love" in that everyone knows what we're talking about but no one can nail d…
I really liked Dario's metaphor that in the 80's, we could have said someday we'll have "supercomputers", which can do all the calculations we did except WAY faster. When, in reality, the AI's just get smarter over time, even if the frontier is jagged. AGI is just vibes only for "smart enough, consistently enough".
Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?
#16> The overlapping AGI definition I use here is "Most purely cognitive labor is automatable at better quality, speed, and cost than humans".
That's a poor definition. Nowhere have I seen cheapness as being a requirement to count as AGI. If we have something that can do everything people can do and more, but it costs a lot means it's not AGI?
Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?
#17The article misses an important clarification for a general audience: current LLM architecture is not AGI by most scientists working on intelligence and cognition, even if its impact is already extraordinary and in many tasks exceeds human performance. AGI implies a broader set of traits.
Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?
#18somewhat relevant longread:
https://paoloanzn.github.io/2026/04/26/agi-will-always-be-on...
Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?
#19> The overlapping AGI definition I use here is "Most purely cognitive labor is automatable at better quality, speed, and cost than humans". For some of these researchers, saying they use this definitions is a bit of a stretch, but I included everyone who I judged as close enough to be informative. Seems "AGI" is on the same level as "art" or "love" in that everyone knows what we're talking about but no one can nail d…
I have no idea why this "AGI is not even well defined" meme gained so much traction recently. AGI is something that can do everything better than humans. Write a novel, seduce someone, prove a theorem, fix a pipe, whatever. And it's clear right now we don't have it.
I don’t think the definition is that clear cut at all. A human can remember the smell of something and invoke it right then and there even if only for half a second. Are we expecting an AGI to do the same?
Then again, transformers seem super-human in some ways already. Who do you know who can more or less recite and make associations from (even if not always intelligently) hundreds of billions of text fragments? Transformers already are better at math than your average human.
My bet is we’ll land in a weird place in between where these systems clearly have some superhuman intelligent capabilities but still are far from “do everything better than humans”.
Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?
#20> The overlapping AGI definition I use here is "Most purely cognitive labor is automatable at better quality, speed, and cost than humans". For some of these researchers, saying they use this definitions is a bit of a stretch, but I included everyone who I judged as close enough to be informative. Seems "AGI" is on the same level as "art" or "love" in that everyone knows what we're talking about but no one can nail d…
I have no idea why this "AGI is not even well defined" meme gained so much traction recently. AGI is something that can do everything better than humans. Write a novel, seduce someone, prove a theorem, fix a pipe, whatever. And it's clear right now we don't have it.
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