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Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term

cnbc.com

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Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term

#11

Post by nostrademons »

wyldfire wrote: post #5

Of course he should be punished but the best lesson here is for bettors. Those who wager on "prediction markets": you are betting against people who have access to more information or can influence the outcome of the wager. Don't waste your money.

That's sort of the point of prediction markets: they surface insider information by allowing people to profit off of it. The benefit is to people watching the prices, who can then use that information to make better decisions ahead of the answer being revealed to the public. It's not necessarily to market participants, who need to be aware of who else is trading the market and have a credible reason to believe they have better information.

Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term

#13

Post by fragmede »

morkalork wrote: post #2

Anyone could have run the list of candidate names from the bets through google trends right?

There's an end-of-year Google trends wrapped that the employee pulled off an internal system before it was public.

Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term

#14

Post by gammarator »

827a wrote: post #10

Anderson Cooper: But predictive markets do rely on someone having some inside information. Shayne Coplan: Uh-huh. Yeah. I think that people going and having an edge to the market is a good thing. Obviously, you need to curate them and you need to be really clear and stringent on where the line is drawn and, like, sort of ethics and we spend a lot of time on that. But it's sort of an inevitability that this will happe…

“and, like, sort of ethics”

Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term

#15

Post by mikeweiss »

nostrademons wrote: post #11
wyldfire wrote: post #5

Of course he should be punished but the best lesson here is for bettors. Those who wager on "prediction markets": you are betting against people who have access to more information or can influence the outcome of the wager. Don't waste your money.

That's sort of the point of prediction markets: they surface insider information by allowing people to profit off of it. The benefit is to people watching the prices , who can then use that information to make better decisions ahead of the answer being revealed to the public. It's not necessarily to market participants, who need to be aware of who else is trading the market and have a credible reason to believe they…

You are correct, but you say this like the prediction markets are open about this fact. They aren't and if you ask them they will deny this.

Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term

#16

Post by mikeyouse »

nostrademons wrote: post #11
wyldfire wrote: post #5

Of course he should be punished but the best lesson here is for bettors. Those who wager on "prediction markets": you are betting against people who have access to more information or can influence the outcome of the wager. Don't waste your money.

That's sort of the point of prediction markets: they surface insider information by allowing people to profit off of it. The benefit is to people watching the prices , who can then use that information to make better decisions ahead of the answer being revealed to the public. It's not necessarily to market participants, who need to be aware of who else is trading the market and have a credible reason to believe they…

That’s the academic theory behind these markets, but there’s no actual value to knowing who the most searched celebrity will be or any of this other garbage. It’s just an unregulated casino with guesses about the popularity of Google searches instead of guessing black or red.

Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term

#19

Post by altmanaltman »

nostrademons wrote: post #11
wyldfire wrote: post #5

Of course he should be punished but the best lesson here is for bettors. Those who wager on "prediction markets": you are betting against people who have access to more information or can influence the outcome of the wager. Don't waste your money.

That's sort of the point of prediction markets: they surface insider information by allowing people to profit off of it. The benefit is to people watching the prices , who can then use that information to make better decisions ahead of the answer being revealed to the public. It's not necessarily to market participants, who need to be aware of who else is trading the market and have a credible reason to believe they…

The point is to make money by letting people gamble on the future. What you said is a second order effect of doing the first thing. They should at least be regulated under gambling laws, doesnt make sense without it

Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term

#20

Post by tomjakubowski »

wyldfire wrote: post #5

Of course he should be punished but the best lesson here is for bettors. Those who wager on "prediction markets": you are betting against people who have access to more information or can influence the outcome of the wager. Don't waste your money.

Also, at least on Polymarket, beware of those who can influence the settlement of the wager, which may settle not in concordance with the actual outcome in reality.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1jki1lj/pol...

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