Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

vincentschmalbach.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

11–20 of 105 posts

Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#11

Post by vincent_s »

Forgeties79 wrote: post #8
vincent_s wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say it's a mixed bag. Yes, price increases are/were expected. But blocking 3rd party harnesses from their subscription and also moving SDK/claude-p access out of the subscription is blocking innovation and therefore future use of Claude models. What I mean is, while Claude models are SOTA, Claude Code is not. It's full of bugs and shortcomings and new innovative harnesses might make better use of the model, but t…

I think it also doesn’t help that they’re all different flavors of the same tool and it’s very easy to jump between them. None of them actually made a particularly distinct product, and they want us to use their tool to make/justify the nebulous billion dollar product. As for subscription/token costs, even with increases they’re not even remotely covering costs. If people actually paid what it cost for these companie…

Yeah I'm worried about that too. Current SOTA models might just be too expensive for most use cases if we had to pay the real costs.

Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#13

Post by rvz »

After Anthropic achieve's "safe" AGI (A Giant IPO). Those token prices are NOT going down as I am predicting [0]

Why would they?

They need to pay for the increasing costs and the high demand for running Claude and soon it will be reflected in their earnings releases. So every token cost counts and the subsidization era of tokens will eventually end.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46886918

Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#14

Post by cmiles8 »

re-thc wrote: post #6
cmiles8 wrote: post #3

It’s going to be an interesting period ahead. The market is going to struggle to absorb SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and others. They’re just massive relative to typical IPOs. Maybe one can sneak through but not all. Someone is going to have to have a very bad day and it’s not clear who yet. Separately there’s a big battle to keep these folks out of the S&P index, because many funds (some of whom are required to buy ind…

> because many funds (some of whom are required to buy index stocks) think they’re horribly over valued and will tank once floating Most of S&P 500 have shares in these anyway e.g. Microsoft and OpenAI. Not really making THAT much of a difference.

? No.

These companies are not publicly traded yet so they are not in these indices. Funds are fighting to keep them out so they’re not required to buy stocks they think will tank.

Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#15

Post by WarmWash »

cmiles8 wrote: post #3

It’s going to be an interesting period ahead. The market is going to struggle to absorb SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and others. They’re just massive relative to typical IPOs. Maybe one can sneak through but not all. Someone is going to have to have a very bad day and it’s not clear who yet. Separately there’s a big battle to keep these folks out of the S&P index, because many funds (some of whom are required to buy ind…

>The market is going to struggle to absorb

It's very unlikely, part of the reason why valuations are so high is because there is so much money, not just in the US, but globally, that is desperately seeking a place to park.

Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#16

Post by this_user »

Anthropic have clearly been working towards this since last year when they started focussing more on building products around their models that could be monetised, instead of competing on the most advanced chatbot. IMO this is part of a broader strategy on their part to tap into the enterprise market, because that is where the money is, not in selling subsidised subscriptions to consumers. This is also what the market will want to see: a credible path towards profitability.

Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#17

Post by Fire-Dragon-DoL »

afavour wrote: post #12

I hope price increases will mean we see serious moves towards open source and/or on device models. Feels like that's where we should all be headed but the current subsidy is a distraction.

I agree but with the current hardware pricing it is a big problem

Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#18

Post by vincent_s »

cmiles8 wrote: post #3

It’s going to be an interesting period ahead. The market is going to struggle to absorb SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and others. They’re just massive relative to typical IPOs. Maybe one can sneak through but not all. Someone is going to have to have a very bad day and it’s not clear who yet. Separately there’s a big battle to keep these folks out of the S&P index, because many funds (some of whom are required to buy ind…

Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX all want to IPO within this year. There's just not enough money in the market to buy all those shares. So people might sell their shares in other companies to buy in at the IPO, then when the next one goes public they might sell the shares they just bought to jump onto the next one and so on. I don't think that there was a situation like this ever before.

Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#19

Post by twalla »

cmiles8 wrote: post #14
re-thc wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> because many funds (some of whom are required to buy index stocks) think they’re horribly over valued and will tank once floating Most of S&P 500 have shares in these anyway e.g. Microsoft and OpenAI. Not really making THAT much of a difference.

? No. These companies are not publicly traded yet so they are not in these indices. Funds are fighting to keep them out so they’re not required to buy stocks they think will tank.

There is indirect exposure to Anthropic/OpenAI through all the incestuous partnerships between hyperscalers and NVDA

Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#20

Post by miroljub »

cmiles8 wrote: post #3

It’s going to be an interesting period ahead. The market is going to struggle to absorb SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and others. They’re just massive relative to typical IPOs. Maybe one can sneak through but not all. Someone is going to have to have a very bad day and it’s not clear who yet. Separately there’s a big battle to keep these folks out of the S&P index, because many funds (some of whom are required to buy ind…

How is that an issue? Many funds that replicate an index are not doing full replication anyway. They do some kind of sampling that includes way fewer stocks than defined in the index.

What would stop a fund from just not including those stocks because of sampling?

Or waiting for time to settle, since even with full physical replication, they are not required to jump in and buy immediately after IPO.

Post reply on HN