Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

For first time since World War II, US national debt now larger than its economy

fortune.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

11–20 of 54 posts

Re: For first time since World War II, US national debt now larger than its economy

#11

Post by noir_lord »

fallingfrog wrote: post #9

The debt can be inflated away (which is the only plausible way this is going to go) but it might cause the dollar to be dropped as the world reserve currency. I don't know for sure what happens in that case.. I suspect that imports would become enormously more expensive, which would reveal the catastrophic erosion in worker rights and pay due to neoliberalism. People would be suddenly aware of how much less they are…

> I don't know for sure what happens in that case..

One thing would be that GDP per Capita would fall to something like Germany (and I'm been kind there assuming it would only drop that much) there isn't inherently anything about the US that says it's GDP per capita has to be ~50% higher than Germany.

Re: For first time since World War II, US national debt now larger than its economy

#12

Post by infinitewars »

0cf8612b2e1e wrote: post #5
sharemywin wrote: post #2

good thing the current administration was basically elected to fix it. how's that going?

Well they lowered taxes on the richest (reduced income) and have increased spending (defense, ICE, ballrooms, what have you). So, exactly as predicted.

Don't forget the $3.6T https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Dome_(missile_defense_s...

Re: For first time since World War II, US national debt now larger than its economy

#13

Post by fallingfrog »

noir_lord wrote: post #11
fallingfrog wrote: post #9

The debt can be inflated away (which is the only plausible way this is going to go) but it might cause the dollar to be dropped as the world reserve currency. I don't know for sure what happens in that case.. I suspect that imports would become enormously more expensive, which would reveal the catastrophic erosion in worker rights and pay due to neoliberalism. People would be suddenly aware of how much less they are…

> I don't know for sure what happens in that case.. One thing would be that GDP per Capita would fall to something like Germany (and I'm been kind there assuming it would only drop that much) there isn't inherently anything about the US that says it's GDP per capita has to be ~50% higher than Germany.

And assuming that median salary drops the same percentage as gdp per capita, it would drop to 41k, which puts a lot of people beneath the threshold to pay their mortgage.

Of course taking a huge pay cut is not something most people are willing to do, so you'd probably actually see mass unemployment and salaries being inflated away.

In response the fed will do the only thing it knows, which is to rev up the money printer even more. But thats going to make all these problems worse, leading to a vicious cycle.

And in the midst of economic chaos, people's danger switches get activated and they will turn to an authoritarian strongman who will make them feel safe.

And generally speaking, once such a person is in power, they can only think of one way to solve their problems, which is to plunder their neighbors by going to war. Thats basically the imperial cycle.

It sucks to be able to see all this coming and yet be powerless to stop it..

Re: For first time since World War II, US national debt now larger than its economy

#15

Post by oa335 »

History doesn't repeat but it rhymes. Roman emperors starting with Marcus Aurelius began devaluing their currency to pay for endless war, and to a lesser extent, free bread; i believe that is the principle cause of the decline of Roman empire.

Re: For first time since World War II, US national debt now larger than its economy

#17

Post by cineticdaffodil »

oa335 wrote: post #15

History doesn't repeat but it rhymes. Roman emperors starting with Marcus Aurelius began devaluing their currency to pay for endless war, and to a lesser extent, free bread; i believe that is the principle cause of the decline of Roman empire.

Empire is a structure that exist strangely disconnected from the country that spawned it to keep the lights at the cost of other countries.

Just imagine if the us empire and its institutions, war machine parted ways with the country and its population. It would not be as hard as one imagines, but would reveal a country that has benefitted in parts by snuggling up to the imperial maxhine, while other paets where abandoned. It would also reveal how deeply the empire structure seeped into the privat social landscape.

Re: For first time since World War II, US national debt now larger than its economy

#18

Post by rayiner »

DoesntMatter22 wrote: post #10
rayiner wrote: post #8

America can’t solve this problem democratically. Trump has taught the GOP you can win elections through targeted bribery (e.g. No Taxes on Tips), avoiding hard decisions (e.g. no cuts to entitlements), and distracting people with expensive spectacle. Meanwhile, Democrats are a collection of interest groups held together by patronage. In the recent election, Democrats were knee-capped because inflation made it impossi…

The only problem that exists is spending too much money. They could fix this overnight if people were willing to give up public entitlements and healthcare support. But they aren’t willing to so the US will eventually see hyper inflation or less likely bankruptcy

No, you can also raise taxes. The deficit is 4% of GDP. If we raised taxes by 4% of GDP, we'd still be less than the OECD average. We'd be the same as Australia, which is the second lowest-tax Anglosphere country.

Re: For first time since World War II, US national debt now larger than its economy

#19

Post by lifestyleguru »

bcjdjsndon wrote: post #14

America teeters on the edge like Britain prior to ww2...one more military overstep and it's over for you

The real estate diplomats and their extended family know what they're doing. Give them more time.
Post reply on HN