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U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

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11–20 of 116 posts

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#11
post #2

That's a good start, and should be followed by banning everyone else from trading on them.

Why though. This is a dead serious question, what is the difference in using financial derivatives and prediction markets. Both are a transaction between parties that is influenced by some other underlying event. Why is it ok for the event to be a stock price, but not ok for it to be a sports match?

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#13
post #8

ANY government employee or government contract worker should be banned from trading on prediction markets.

The US federal workforce is ~2.2 million people. Banning them all from trading on prediction markets isn't the right move. A cafeteria worker in some suburban admin office likely has no inside information they are going to trade on. Members of congress and other high level positions on the other hand should be banned.

> A cafeteria worker in some suburban admin office likely has no inside information they are going to trade on.

Until they do...

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#14
post #5

All of the other markets are prediction markets too, in terms of opportunities to profit from inside knowledge. This is like vowing to quit smoking ... Marlboros.

Would Martha Stewart be sentenced to prison for lying to federal investigators regarding her "prediction" of the release timing of her next cookbook?

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#15

ANY government employee or government contract worker should be banned from trading on prediction markets.

Every large company should ban employees and contractors from trading on prediction markets. There are so many ways an employee could make money on prediction markets. Causing outages is probably the easiest, but anything that would get the company in the news would do it.

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#16
post #11
post #2

That's a good start, and should be followed by banning everyone else from trading on them.

Why though. This is a dead serious question, what is the difference in using financial derivatives and prediction markets. Both are a transaction between parties that is influenced by some other underlying event. Why is it ok for the event to be a stock price, but not ok for it to be a sports match?

Because it isn't limited to seemingly innocent sports matches.

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#17
post #8

ANY government employee or government contract worker should be banned from trading on prediction markets.

The US federal workforce is ~2.2 million people. Banning them all from trading on prediction markets isn't the right move. A cafeteria worker in some suburban admin office likely has no inside information they are going to trade on. Members of congress and other high level positions on the other hand should be banned.

[dead]

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#18
post #11
post #2

That's a good start, and should be followed by banning everyone else from trading on them.

Why though. This is a dead serious question, what is the difference in using financial derivatives and prediction markets. Both are a transaction between parties that is influenced by some other underlying event. Why is it ok for the event to be a stock price, but not ok for it to be a sports match?

The financial derivatives are (supposed to be) regulated, there's laws against insider trading that keep the market fair. For sports betting there's laws against match fixing.

The prediction market CEOs on the other hand seem to be actively encouraging insider trading and match fixing, it's practically their main selling point.

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#19
post #4

Good. Now they should also ban themselves from insider trading in both the public stock market and private markets as well as prediction markets.

This was done in 2012: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STOCK_Act

> A member, officer, or employee of the __Senate__ shall not receive any compensation, nor shall he permit any compensation to accrue to his beneficial interest from any source, the receipt or accrual of which would occur by virtue of influence improperly exerted from his position as a member, officer, or employee.

Emphasis mine. This does not cover the judicial or executive branch

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#20
good. and the restriction shouldn’t stop at U.S. Senators. anyone with a major influence in their field should be banned from using these prediction/betting apps. as an NBA fan, I was shocked when I saw the reports about Milwaukee star Giannis allegedly using Kalshi to “predict” his own future team during the last NBA trade deadline. how is that even allowed? he even went on to promote the prediction app the day after the trade deadline.
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