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Will you heed my warnings now?

scottaaronson.blog

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Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#11

Post by bradley13 »

AndrewStephens wrote: post #4

Aaronson know his stuff but I am not sure he hasn’t considered the fact that, in this current hype cycle, the quantum researchers breathlessly reporting to him on a breakthrough just around the corner are just lying to him and themselves. I have been hearing about one more technical hurdle to solve before quantum algorithms become feasible since before I graduated. That was in 1996.

This is true, practical quantum computing is always "just a couple of years away".

At the same time, moving to more secure encryption really isn't difficult. How many times have algorithms been deprecated over the past 20 or so years? It's time to do it again.

Let's just make sure that the NSA hasn't worked in any backdoors. At latest since Snowdon, anything they work on is suspect.

Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#12

Post by sharkjacobs »

AndrewStephens wrote: post #4

Aaronson know his stuff but I am not sure he hasn’t considered the fact that, in this current hype cycle, the quantum researchers breathlessly reporting to him on a breakthrough just around the corner are just lying to him and themselves. I have been hearing about one more technical hurdle to solve before quantum algorithms become feasible since before I graduated. That was in 1996.

Are you saying this because it's an evergreen joke or because you really think there hasn't been meaningful progress in the field since 1996?

Duke Nukem Forever was release fifteen years ago. Some things never happen until they suddenly do.

The wolf really does eat the boy at the end of The Boy Who Cried Wolf.

Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#13

Post by AshamedCaptain »

bradley13 wrote: post #11
AndrewStephens wrote: post #4

Aaronson know his stuff but I am not sure he hasn’t considered the fact that, in this current hype cycle, the quantum researchers breathlessly reporting to him on a breakthrough just around the corner are just lying to him and themselves. I have been hearing about one more technical hurdle to solve before quantum algorithms become feasible since before I graduated. That was in 1996.

This is true, practical quantum computing is always "just a couple of years away". At the same time, moving to more secure encryption really isn't difficult. How many times have algorithms been deprecated over the past 20 or so years? It's time to do it again. Let's just make sure that the NSA hasn't worked in any backdoors. At latest since Snowdon, anything they work on is suspect.

And in the process immediately convert huge numbers of devices into ewaste. Then check the excuse calendar again for tomorrow's reason to deprecate yet another batch of "legacy" ciphers from openSSL.

Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#14

Post by Tyyps »

bradley13 wrote: post #11
AndrewStephens wrote: post #4

Aaronson know his stuff but I am not sure he hasn’t considered the fact that, in this current hype cycle, the quantum researchers breathlessly reporting to him on a breakthrough just around the corner are just lying to him and themselves. I have been hearing about one more technical hurdle to solve before quantum algorithms become feasible since before I graduated. That was in 1996.

This is true, practical quantum computing is always "just a couple of years away". At the same time, moving to more secure encryption really isn't difficult. How many times have algorithms been deprecated over the past 20 or so years? It's time to do it again. Let's just make sure that the NSA hasn't worked in any backdoors. At latest since Snowdon, anything they work on is suspect.

There is no clear evidence that the risk of "a practical post quantum computer would arrive in the next 5 years" is greater than "post quantum scheme X is broken" for any scheme X. The only way to go is hybridation and it is quite hard from an engineering point apparently.

Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#15

Post by emil-lp »

sharkjacobs wrote: post #12
AndrewStephens wrote: post #4

Aaronson know his stuff but I am not sure he hasn’t considered the fact that, in this current hype cycle, the quantum researchers breathlessly reporting to him on a breakthrough just around the corner are just lying to him and themselves. I have been hearing about one more technical hurdle to solve before quantum algorithms become feasible since before I graduated. That was in 1996.

Are you saying this because it's an evergreen joke or because you really think there hasn't been meaningful progress in the field since 1996? Duke Nukem Forever was release fifteen years ago. Some things never happen until they suddenly do. The wolf really does eat the boy at the end of The Boy Who Cried Wolf.

But Duke Nukem was developed with visible progress.

We are still not factoring 21, let alone 35, let alone numbers with thousands of digits.

Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#16

Post by Ardren »

> Shor of Damocles

What is the biggest number factored using Shor's algorithm?

Last time I looked it was very unimpressive.

Edit: It's gotten worse. 21 from 2012. "Replication of Quantum Factorisation Records with an 8-bit Home Computer, an Abacus, and a Dog" say the factorization of 35 in 2019 actually failed.

https://eprint.iacr.org/2025/1237

Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#17

Post by FartyMcFarter »

Ardren wrote: post #16

> Shor of Damocles What is the biggest number factored using Shor's algorithm? Last time I looked it was very unimpressive. Edit: It's gotten worse. 21 from 2012. "Replication of Quantum Factorisation Records with an 8-bit Home Computer, an Abacus, and a Dog" say the factorization of 35 in 2019 actually failed. https://eprint.iacr.org/2025/1237

I said this about LLMs a few years ago, and now here we are.

Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#18

Post by FartyMcFarter »

AshamedCaptain wrote: post #13
bradley13 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is true, practical quantum computing is always "just a couple of years away". At the same time, moving to more secure encryption really isn't difficult. How many times have algorithms been deprecated over the past 20 or so years? It's time to do it again. Let's just make sure that the NSA hasn't worked in any backdoors. At latest since Snowdon, anything they work on is suspect.

And in the process immediately convert huge numbers of devices into ewaste. Then check the excuse calendar again for tomorrow's reason to deprecate yet another batch of "legacy" ciphers from openSSL.

The sooner we start making devices ready for better encryption systems, the fewer devices will be wasted.

Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#19

Post by sanxiyn »

Ardren wrote: post #16

> Shor of Damocles What is the biggest number factored using Shor's algorithm? Last time I looked it was very unimpressive. Edit: It's gotten worse. 21 from 2012. "Replication of Quantum Factorisation Records with an 8-bit Home Computer, an Abacus, and a Dog" say the factorization of 35 in 2019 actually failed. https://eprint.iacr.org/2025/1237

I will let Scott Aaronson speak. (See https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=9668)

> Sometimes these days, I'll survey the spectacular recent progress in fault-tolerance, 2-qubit gate fidelities, programmable hundred-qubit systems, etc., only to be answered with a sneer: "What's the biggest number that Shor's algorithm has factored? Still 15 after all these years? Haha, apparently the emperor has no clothes!" I've commented that this is sort of like dismissing the Manhattan Project as hopelessly stalled in 1944, on the ground that so far it hasn't produced even a tiny nuclear explosion... If there's a reason why you think it can't work beyond a certain scale, say so. But don't fixate on one external benchmark and ignore everything happening under the hood, if the experts are telling you that under the hood is where all the action now is, and your preferred benchmark is only relevant later.

Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#20

Post by weddpros »

KaiserPro wrote: post #2

Ok, maybe I'm missing something here. So we know that quantum computers hold a real risk of being able to break a lot of encryption. We also know that changing cyphers is hard (because reasons) But what I don't see is what I can practically do now, as either someone who is a CTO/Big Cheese™ or a lowly engineer?

TLS can already be setup to avoid store-now-decrypt-later PQC issues. That's available today, and should be implemented. Use https://sslboard.com to inventory all your external TLS infrastructure and check for PQC readiness (creator here).
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