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What if AI doesn't need more RAM but better math?

adlrocha.substack.com

11–20 of 111 posts

Re: What if AI doesn't need more RAM but better math?

#11

We will not see memory demand decrease because this will simply allow AI companies to run more instances. They still want an infinite amount of memory at the moment, no matter how AI improves.

If models become more efficient we will move more of the work to local devices instead of using SaaS models. We’re still in the mainframe era of LLM.

[flagged]

Re: What if AI doesn't need more RAM but better math?

#12

We will not see memory demand decrease because this will simply allow AI companies to run more instances. They still want an infinite amount of memory at the moment, no matter how AI improves.

Jevons paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

Re: What if AI doesn't need more RAM but better math?

#13

We will not see memory demand decrease because this will simply allow AI companies to run more instances. They still want an infinite amount of memory at the moment, no matter how AI improves.

If models become more efficient we will move more of the work to local devices instead of using SaaS models. We’re still in the mainframe era of LLM.

The hyperscalers do not want us running models at the edge and they will spend infinite amounts of circular fake money to ensure hardware remains prohibitively expensive forever.

Re: What if AI doesn't need more RAM but better math?

#16
post #5

We will not see memory demand decrease because this will simply allow AI companies to run more instances. They still want an infinite amount of memory at the moment, no matter how AI improves.

I disagree. I think a sharp drop in memory requirements of at least an order of magnitude will cause demand to adjust accordingly.

Department of Transportation always thinks adding more lanes will reduce traffic.

It doesn't, it induces demand. Why? Because there's always too many people with cars who will fill those lanes.

Re: What if AI doesn't need more RAM but better math?

#17

We will not see memory demand decrease because this will simply allow AI companies to run more instances. They still want an infinite amount of memory at the moment, no matter how AI improves.

If models become more efficient we will move more of the work to local devices instead of using SaaS models. We’re still in the mainframe era of LLM.

> If models become more efficient

Then we can make them even bigger.

Re: What if AI doesn't need more RAM but better math?

#18
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If models become more efficient we will move more of the work to local devices instead of using SaaS models. We’re still in the mainframe era of LLM.

> If models become more efficient Then we can make them even bigger.

> Then we can make them even bigger.

But what if it becomes "good enough", that for most intents and purposes, small models can be "good enough"

There are some people here/on r/localllama who I have seen run some small models and sometimes even run multiple of them to solve/iterate quickly and have a larger model plug into it and fix anything remaining.

This would still mean that larger/SOTA models might have some demand but I don't think that the demand would be nearly enough that people think, I mean, we all still kind of feel like there are different models which are good for different tasks and a good recommendation is to benchmark different models for your own use cases as sometimes there are some small models who can be good within your particular domain worth having within your toolset.

Re: What if AI doesn't need more RAM but better math?

#19
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. I think a sharp drop in memory requirements of at least an order of magnitude will cause demand to adjust accordingly.

Department of Transportation always thinks adding more lanes will reduce traffic. It doesn't, it induces demand. Why? Because there's always too many people with cars who will fill those lanes.

Citation needed. I've heard this quite often, but so far, I haven't seen proof of the stated causality.

PS: This doesn't mean that better public transportation could deliver more bang for the buck than the n-th additional car lane. But never ever have I heard from anybody that they chose to buy a car or use an existing car more often because an additional lane has been built.

Re: What if AI doesn't need more RAM but better math?

#20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If models become more efficient we will move more of the work to local devices instead of using SaaS models. We’re still in the mainframe era of LLM.

The hyperscalers do not want us running models at the edge and they will spend infinite amounts of circular fake money to ensure hardware remains prohibitively expensive forever.

> of circular fake money

Oh it gets worse than that, the money which caused all of this by OpenAI was taken from Japanese banks at cheap interest rates (by softbank for the stargate project), and the Japanese Banks are able to do it because of Japanese people/Japanese companies and also the collateral are stocks which are inflated by the value of people who invest their hard earned money into the markets

So in a way they are using real hard earned money to fund all of this, they are using your money to basically attack you behind your backs.

I once wrote an really long comment about the shaky finances of stargate, I feel like suggesting it here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47297428

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