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Treason in the Futures Markets

paulkrugman.substack.com

11–20 of 67 posts

Re: Treason in the Futures Markets

#11

While I agree it is very suspicious, needs investigating and far, far greater oversight in general, I'm not sure there is enough to conclude this definitely is insider trading. Markets are weird. People trade for weird reasons, sometimes gently and in small size, sometimes aggressively and all at once. We're zooming in at a short window just before the tweet. If you look at random windows you'll find these too. 6.49…

I agree the article could include more data around the frequency and size of these kind of trades around other events and for a longer period.

However as the article notes the time and size of this particular series of trades makes it look suspicious and that’s all one can say with certainty at this point.

Re: Treason in the Futures Markets

#12
post #7
post #5

[flagged]

The $580MM transaction described in the article is already 1,000 times larger than the alleged congressional insider trading by Paul Pelosi that caused Sen. Hawley to introduce the PELOSI act.

Honestly the PELOSI act is a step in the right direction, and should be extended to include all kinds of cryptocurrency and real estate. Also the president and his extended family should be included in it.

The only problem is in the name. It's clearly just to score political points. I'd be surprised if it gets approved.

Re: Treason in the Futures Markets

#13

Excuse my ignorance, but why can't this be traced? It's not crypto wallets, why is there no transparency here?

It can be traced, but the people who could and should be tracing this have been told not to.

Even if they found the culprits, what's a judge's verdict against a presidential pardon?

Re: Treason in the Futures Markets

#14
post #9

"Treason" seems a bit much. We put a very high bar on that term because it comes with the most serious consequences. The fact that nobody seems particularly surprised by it suggests that the damage is long since done.

We (the US) put a high bar on it because the Crown was using it as a way to attack political enemies and we didn’t want to follow suit. It is such a high bar in this country that it is effectively dead law, as nobody has been tried for it since soon after WWII, and very very few people have been convicted, and of those several had their convictions overturned.

The current administration does, however, throw the term around against its political enemies quite a bit, as have people in general pretty much throughout history.

Re: Treason in the Futures Markets

#15

While I agree it is very suspicious, needs investigating and far, far greater oversight in general, I'm not sure there is enough to conclude this definitely is insider trading. Markets are weird. People trade for weird reasons, sometimes gently and in small size, sometimes aggressively and all at once. We're zooming in at a short window just before the tweet. If you look at random windows you'll find these too. 6.49…

I'm sorry but I'm finding it hard to believe this is a real comment.

How's this a coincidence?

Trump has boasted about this, that's the point we're in.[0]

They're announcing in a newsletter a fund raising where they will share national secrets with donors.[1]

This is literally people paying to get access to privileged information, in a fund raising for what?

Like it's openly being said that if you pay enough money, you will make a lot of money, this is unprecedented.

Trying to normalize it by saying "it's not corruption because it's done out in the open", or to bend reality to make an excuse for this, like it's a coincidence... it's insanity.

This could very well be the end, if the game is rigged at this level - and people trying to get as much out as possible while it lasts, while acting like no one understands what's going on, it's one of the scariest things I've witnessed. It's like we're falling off a cliff and people are shoving money in their pockets while saying "we're not falling, it's just the wind".

[0]https://youtube.com/shorts/E2dr8En2N5A

[1]https://youtube.com/shorts/yhG1XWptoak

Re: Treason in the Futures Markets

#16

While I agree it is very suspicious, needs investigating and far, far greater oversight in general, I'm not sure there is enough to conclude this definitely is insider trading. Markets are weird. People trade for weird reasons, sometimes gently and in small size, sometimes aggressively and all at once. We're zooming in at a short window just before the tweet. If you look at random windows you'll find these too. 6.49…

> I'm not sure there is enough to conclude this definitely is insider trading. Markets are weird.

This was 6-8x the size all the existing trades on market combined, with zero other publicly available information early on a Monday morning 15 mins before an announcement that significantly moved the market.

Not even the biggest hedge funds in the world with coked up yolo traders go make 1.5 billion dollar bets like that, it simply doesn't happen.

It's egregious and blatant insider trading. The position got closed not long after the news came out.

Re: Treason in the Futures Markets

#17
And very soon, as economics and behavioral sciences suggest, we will have world events directly influenced by people having the incentives to make them happen for financial gains only.

There's a reason we have banned and prosecuted any hint of insider trading or match fixing for centuries. Yet we play dumb on way more serious risks, allowing betting on whether a country will attack another and labeling it "information hedging and price discovery".

I can't but look at the modern world with worry. We live in increasingly Orwellian and dystopic times. The world has never been so rich and evolved, yet, as a society, we're increasingly unhappy, alone and void of purposes that aren't greed and selfishness related.

We're looking at the decadence of a civilization and all we can do, at best, is post about it over the internet, and that's when we're in the aware crowd not falling for bitter insulting and fighting because somebody else holds different ideas.

I would really want to know what can we do, as average Joes, when the most powerful people in the world fall in line and are terrorized to speak their mind. And that's when they're not actively contributing to the very same decadence.

Re: Treason in the Futures Markets

#18

Excuse my ignorance, but why can't this be traced? It's not crypto wallets, why is there no transparency here?

Maybe because the rot runs so deep in Washington that nobody really wants this to be a big deal. A little like the Epstein files: so many people would be caught up in the web if insider trading in DC were properly investigated that nobody wants to go there.

Re: Treason in the Futures Markets

#19

Excuse my ignorance, but why can't this be traced? It's not crypto wallets, why is there no transparency here?

It can be traced, but the people who could and should be tracing this have been told not to. Even if they found the culprits, what's a judge's verdict against a presidential pardon?

> Even if they found the culprits, what's a judge's verdict against a presidential pardon?

This is bad logic. A presidential pardon at least exposes the corruption, and exposing the corruption is more important than a prison sentence.

Re: Treason in the Futures Markets

#20
post #9

"Treason" seems a bit much. We put a very high bar on that term because it comes with the most serious consequences. The fact that nobody seems particularly surprised by it suggests that the damage is long since done.

Agreed. War Profiteering [0] is probably a better term.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_profiteering

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