Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The strait of Hormuz blockade will strangle US defense industry

theguardian.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

11–20 of 44 posts

Re: The strait of Hormuz blockade will strangle US defense industry

#11

Post by kvuj »

> “We don’t know who their vendors are,” he said, adding that beyond a few steps in long chains of subcontractors, “nobody actually knows who’s providing these metals, these minerals, the parts. And it just becomes a maze.”

So how can you predict the impact on the US defense industry? How can you predict it will be strangled?

What the hell is this shitty article that doesn't use a single hard number? No graphs, no prediction based on previous wars, no investigative dig into the supply chains...

Re: The strait of Hormuz blockade will strangle US defense industry

#13

Post by jmstfv »

andyjohnson0 wrote: post #7
jmstfv wrote: post #6

the closure of the strait (i.e. a toll booth by Iran) will cause massive inflation, destroy the GCC, and eventually lead to a global recession and the end of a petrodollar, which is how Iran is retaliating. And if the US attempts a ground invasion to keep the strait open, it will be a complete disaster for the US.

GCC == Gulf Cooperation Council?

yes. they export oil/LNG and import most of their food. and they invest their proceeds into the US economy/treasuries, which they're going to stop if this continues.

by some estimates, Qatar and Kuwait could experience ~14% GDP contraction this year if this goes on.

Re: The strait of Hormuz blockade will strangle US defense industry

#14

Post by kelipso »

redwood wrote: post #9

Everyone's an expert 19 days into a conflict that was absolutely foreseen in comprehensive United States military planning. People need to have some patience. What's clear is it the way this is being executed is a complete reboot of how prior Middle East conflicts were executed which suggests major ownership of prior problems and learnings applied

Wow, seeing tech manager talk in war context is really something. Finding new and innovative way to kill millions of civilians everyday. I suppose there are real people who do actually do this.

Re: The strait of Hormuz blockade will strangle US defense industry

#15

Post by baal80spam »

kvuj wrote: post #11

> “We don’t know who their vendors are,” he said, adding that beyond a few steps in long chains of subcontractors, “nobody actually knows who’s providing these metals, these minerals, the parts. And it just becomes a maze.” So how can you predict the impact on the US defense industry? How can you predict it will be strangled? What the hell is this shitty article that doesn't use a single hard number? No graphs, no pr…

> What the hell is this shitty article that doesn't use a single hard number? No graphs, no prediction based on previous wars, no investigative dig into the supply chains...

That's The Guardian for you, sir.

Re: The strait of Hormuz blockade will strangle US defense industry

#16

Post by softwaredoug »

yabones wrote: post #12

It's kind of funny how the US military, the largest single consumer of fossil fuels on the planet, didn't consider that disrupting the largest source of fossil fuels would impact them.

They of course considered it. It’s the civilians at the top that did not.

Re: The strait of Hormuz blockade will strangle US defense industry

#17

Post by selectodude »

yabones wrote: post #12

It's kind of funny how the US military, the largest single consumer of fossil fuels on the planet, didn't consider that disrupting the largest source of fossil fuels would impact them.

They demoted or fired all the people in the room who would raise a concern for being gay and woke.

Re: The strait of Hormuz blockade will strangle US defense industry

#18

Post by softwaredoug »

kvuj wrote: post #11

> “We don’t know who their vendors are,” he said, adding that beyond a few steps in long chains of subcontractors, “nobody actually knows who’s providing these metals, these minerals, the parts. And it just becomes a maze.” So how can you predict the impact on the US defense industry? How can you predict it will be strangled? What the hell is this shitty article that doesn't use a single hard number? No graphs, no pr…

I’ve seen a lot of subreddits devolve into posting political rage bait articles plastered with ads and very little substance. I hope that doesn’t happen here.

Re: The strait of Hormuz blockade will strangle US defense industry

#19

Post by ImPostingOnHN »

echoangle wrote: post #5
pjc50 wrote: post #2

> "knock-on effect of this war is that it may cost double or more than double to replace all these weapons because all the mineral demand is going to go way up It's a lazy assumption that the motivation for war is profit, but in this case ...

How much would material prices have to increase that replacement cost doubles? The main factor in weapon prices is development cost and manufacturing, not the raw materials, right?

> The main factor in weapon prices is development cost and manufacturing

Close: the main factor in weapon costs is development. The main factor in prices depends on how many are manufactured, what sort of maintenance there will be (huge business), how much profit the defense contracting corporation wants to make, etc.

For example, now that the Patriot missile is already developed, each new one made and sold for millions will have a gross profit. If you can say "material prices increased (unsaid: "by 20%, etc") so we need to double the price", and the buyer is motivated (started a war and exhausted their previous supply), and also they are already locked into your ecosystem, then that is a win for you in even more ways.

If you are money-friends with the head of the military, and they are infamous for corruption, violating laws and regulations, not caring about the cost of things they spend government money on, and gifting government favors to their money-friends, then you are golden.

Re: The strait of Hormuz blockade will strangle US defense industry

#20

Post by jameskilton »

> only 6% of US defense contractors have fully transparent supply chains

The Industrial-Military complex and the constant fight against Right-to-Repair is finally biting us in the ass. It remains to be seen if we will learn anything from this disaster.

Post reply on HN