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The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

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11–20 of 411 posts

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#11

> The impotence of naive idealism in the face of economic incentives A great point. I saw blinding idealism during the early days of GPT era.

This was never idealism, it was much more about gaslighting. Billionaire investors have a playbook where they say something to gaslight people into agreeing with them, and then go to the opposite direction. It is already a pattern. For example, most companies would swear they were decided on cutting carbon emissions, just to forget everything when it comes to build data centers. They say some technology is just for the growth of mankind when in fact they're looking for monopoly and destroying jobs. They say they're donating money for "charity" when they're in fact investing in technologies that they have vested financial interest. They say we need to contribute to a not-for-profit institution which will later be used to create another monopoly. It is so predictable that I wonder why anyone can still be fooled by this.

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#13
Purely anecdotal, but GPT 5.4 has been better than Opus 4.6 this past week or so since it came out. It’s interesting to see it rank fairly low on that table. Opus “talks” better and produces nicer output (or, it renders better Markdown in OpenCode) than 5.4.

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#14
OpenAI:

- we are building Open AI - only if you have more than $10B net worth

- we are against using AI for military purposes - except when that case is allowed by government

- we are on a mission to help humanity - again, we define humanity as set of people with more than $10B net worth

- surrender? - sure, sure, we will, only to people with more than $10B net worth, they can do whatever they want to our models, we will surrender to them

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#16

The way Sam Altman bungled the Pentagon deal by swooping in a few hours after Anthropic was fired should be grounds for OpenAI finding another CEO.

Why? Give it a couple weeks and everybody will forget about this. They'll be earning more money than previously. Job well done.

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#19
I think the brunt of the disruption regarding AI is already behind us for LLMs at least. It's possible we'll see improvements over the following months/years, but government will inevitably start to catchup to the level of disinformation and confusion that AI has brought to this world.

Laws & regulations that needs to be created to reign in AI will undoubtedly increase the opportunity cost of training LLMs.

For some, it might be similar to the early 2000s, but I think it's just a healthy rebalance of what AI is, and how the society needs to implement this new, hardly controllable, paradigm. With this perspective, OpenAI has a lot to lose as it hasn't been able to create a moat for itself compared to, let's say, Anthropic.

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