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Open Source Iran War Cost Tracker: 45.7B

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Re: Open Source Iran War Cost Tracker: 45.7B

#12

Some problems: - The Aid package is not immediately spent all at once. It authorizes up to $26 billion, but the CBO estimates it may take all the way into 2033 to claim the money. - To that end, a lot of these costs are double counted. It's including the bill that authorizes these expenses, and then those expenses all in the same calculation. More realistically, the $6.5M/day in theater operations for a Carrier Strik…

Thank you for the feedback, I'll take it into account. Much appreciated!

Re: Open Source Iran War Cost Tracker: 45.7B

#13

The modern Iran War began in April 2024 when Israel bombed Iran's consulate in Syria, marking the first direct conflict between the countries.

There were many many milestones that are relevant to the current war.

- Proxy war waged by Iran in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleima...

Arguably the bombing of IRGC meeting in the consulate-adjacent structure was not really "direct conflict". It was Iran firing missiles at Israel that was the first real direct conflict: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_2024_Iranian_strikes_on_...

Also if we want to split hairs Iran attacked Israel's embassy in Buenos Aires in 1992: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Buenos_Aires_Israeli_emba...

"In April 2024, Argentina's second highest court ruled that the Iranian government was responsible for the bombing, and that it was carried out in retaliation for Argentina reneging on agreements to transfer nuclear material to Iran. The ruling also characterized Iran as a terrorist state"

Re: Open Source Iran War Cost Tracker: 45.7B

#15

The modern Iran War began in April 2024 when Israel bombed Iran's consulate in Syria, marking the first direct conflict between the countries.

That only works if you treat Iran’s proxies as unrelated actors.

Hamas (Oct 7), Hezbollah on the northern border, the Houthis in the Red Sea, Iraqi militias hitting U.S. bases — that’s been Iran’s strategy for decades.

April 2024 may have been the first direct exchange, but the war with Iran’s proxy system was already underway.

Re: Open Source Iran War Cost Tracker: 45.7B

#16
"Estimated US military spending since April 20, 2024, the day Congress passed $26.38B in emergency security assistance for Israel. "

In April 2024, Congress passed a $95.3 billion national-security supplemental package that included funding for Ukraine, Israel, and Indo-Pacific security. The Israel portion totaled about $26.38 billion.

Key points about that money:

Total Israel-related funding: about $26.38B. Humanitarian aid: roughly $9.15B (for civilians affected by conflicts, including Gaza). Missile defense: about $5.2B for systems like Iron Dome and David’s Sling. Weapons procurement: about $3.5B for new weapons. Other military supplies/services: about $4.4B.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/whats-us-houses-foreign-aid... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Law_118-50

Re: Open Source Iran War Cost Tracker: 45.7B

#17

The modern Iran War began in April 2024 when Israel bombed Iran's consulate in Syria, marking the first direct conflict between the countries.

That only works if you treat Iran’s proxies as unrelated actors. Hamas (Oct 7), Hezbollah on the northern border, the Houthis in the Red Sea, Iraqi militias hitting U.S. bases — that’s been Iran’s strategy for decades. April 2024 may have been the first direct exchange, but the war with Iran’s proxy system was already underway.

Hezbollah and Hamas are friendly with Iran but they very much have their own reasons for attacking Israel. Handwaving that as "Iran's proxies" is motivated reasoning.

Re: Open Source Iran War Cost Tracker: 45.7B

#18

Some problems: - The Aid package is not immediately spent all at once. It authorizes up to $26 billion, but the CBO estimates it may take all the way into 2033 to claim the money. - To that end, a lot of these costs are double counted. It's including the bill that authorizes these expenses, and then those expenses all in the same calculation. More realistically, the $6.5M/day in theater operations for a Carrier Strik…

It would be interesting, but admittedly difficult, to have a comparative scale of what could have been achieved if the money had been used to hire more teachers, set up universal healthcare, reduce overcrowding in prisons, provide shelters and food for the homeless, subsidise doctors to work in places where no-one can afford medical care... In other words "at this point you could have provided shelter for every homeless person; at this point you could have halved the crowding in prisons; at this point ...".

Re: Open Source Iran War Cost Tracker: 45.7B

#20
post #13

The modern Iran War began in April 2024 when Israel bombed Iran's consulate in Syria, marking the first direct conflict between the countries.

There were many many milestones that are relevant to the current war. - Proxy war waged by Iran in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleima... Arguably the bombing of IRGC meeting in the consulate-adjacent structure was not really "direct conflict". It was Iran firing missiles at Israel that was the first real direct conflict: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_2…

In your last point, wasn't that just Miley pandering to the US and Israel ?

Bombing an Embassy/Consulate is a direct attack on sovereign territory according to international law, so technically Israel started first, but I agree, it's splitting hair, both sides attacked each other in various ways, via proxies, sabotage, killing scientists, economic damages, sanctions long before any of this happened.

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