Acclaimed science author Carl Sagan illustrated this challenge with his “dragon in the garage” analogy. If someone claims to have a dragon that is invisible, silent, intangible, and undetectable by any means, there is no practical difference between the dragon’s existence and non-existence. Similarly, without verifiable evidence, the existence of an immortal soul remains unproven. https://www.rxjourney.net/the-possib…
Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)
11–20 of 129 posts
Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)
#12Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Not sure why this comment got downvoted, but after all this is HN: very pro-tech while at the same time anti-science. Computers do everything so knowledge doesn't matter. As Dr. Sagan (quite correctly) pointed out: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Whether there's any particular method right now , next week or next year for such "detection" isn't relevant in this context for several reasons: 1. Sa…
[flagged]
QFT posits that the graviton (as a particle-like excitation in a "gravity field") exists.
We do not currently (although there are some potential future experiments that might be able to confirm the existence of the graviton) have the means to detect gravitons.
Does the graviton exist? I don't know and neither do you. And we won't, unless and until we have the ability to detect gravitons. While we have a theoretical basis for gravitons, we have no experimental or observational evidence. Does that mean we should stop looking? No.
How about dark matter. What exactly is dark matter? We have a bunch of evidence that something that doesn't interact via the photon (the particle-like excitation of the EM field), but does interact gravitationally with itself and other fermions and bosons.
We don't know what that "dark matter" might be, but we continue looking for it, as there is both theoretical and observational evidence of its existence.
As for the "garage dragon," there is no theoretical, experimental or observational evidence for it.
There is also none of that for my claim of the absolute existence of a gremlin living inside your skull chowing down on your brain. But we should definitely saw open your skull to prove it, right? I'm partial to circular saws, but we can go with a chainsaw if you like.
>you sound like someone who stops giving up at the first obstacle.
It's not clear what ad-hominem attack you're making against me here as the words, as strung together don't make sense, but who I am or what I will or won't do is irrelevant to the discussion at hand.
Are you unable to make a better argument and so attack me personally instead?
>> I'd also point out that the guidelines[0] say:
>I had already removed it by the time you commented, so that's on you.
Did you? Thanks for finally following the site guidelines. Perhaps next time you won't need to be reminded.
Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)
#13Acclaimed science author Carl Sagan illustrated this challenge with his “dragon in the garage” analogy. If someone claims to have a dragon that is invisible, silent, intangible, and undetectable by any means, there is no practical difference between the dragon’s existence and non-existence. Similarly, without verifiable evidence, the existence of an immortal soul remains unproven. https://www.rxjourney.net/the-possib…
The dragon in the room is the hidden qualifier for "undetectable by any means" is "that is currently known to humanity". That makes Carl Sagan's claim some what Balonish. Not sure why the smart Sagan fell for it.
> That makes Carl Sagan's claim some what Balonish. Not sure why the smart Sagan fell for it.
The point is that if someone does claim that the dragon exists, they better be able to explain how they know it exists.
Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)
#14Acclaimed science author Carl Sagan illustrated this challenge with his “dragon in the garage” analogy. If someone claims to have a dragon that is invisible, silent, intangible, and undetectable by any means, there is no practical difference between the dragon’s existence and non-existence. Similarly, without verifiable evidence, the existence of an immortal soul remains unproven. https://www.rxjourney.net/the-possib…
The dragon in the room is the hidden qualifier for "undetectable by any means" is "that is currently known to humanity". That makes Carl Sagan's claim some what Balonish. Not sure why the smart Sagan fell for it.
Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)
#15Earlier quoted context omitted.
[flagged]
>It IS relevant to me and to most scientists. And you sound like someone who stops giving up at the first obstacle. QFT posits that the graviton (as a particle-like excitation in a "gravity field") exists. We do not currently (although there are some potential future experiments that might be able to confirm the existence of the graviton) have the means to detect gravitons. Does the graviton exist? I don't know and n…
You did a good job at making my point for me, thank you.
Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)
#16I think it needs another item in the list: For any theory/ hypothesis: how well does it stand against the null-hypothesis? For example: How much physical evidence is there really for the string-theory?
And I would upgrade this one: If there’s a chain of physical evidence (was argument), every link in the chain must work (including the premise) — not just most of them
And when breaking these items do not mean that something is false. It means that the arguments and evidence is incomplete. Don't jump to conclusions when you think that the arguments or evidence is invalid (that is how some people even think that the moonlanding was a hoax).
Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)
#17Acclaimed science author Carl Sagan illustrated this challenge with his “dragon in the garage” analogy. If someone claims to have a dragon that is invisible, silent, intangible, and undetectable by any means, there is no practical difference between the dragon’s existence and non-existence. Similarly, without verifiable evidence, the existence of an immortal soul remains unproven. https://www.rxjourney.net/the-possib…
You can’t really tell a particular piece of hardware is running software by a direct physical measurement. You can only infer that indirectly.
Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)
#18Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)
#19Acclaimed science author Carl Sagan illustrated this challenge with his “dragon in the garage” analogy. If someone claims to have a dragon that is invisible, silent, intangible, and undetectable by any means, there is no practical difference between the dragon’s existence and non-existence. Similarly, without verifiable evidence, the existence of an immortal soul remains unproven. https://www.rxjourney.net/the-possib…
Doesn’t silent, invisible, intangible also apply to software? You can’t really tell a particular piece of hardware is running software by a direct physical measurement. You can only infer that indirectly.
Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)
#20> I have a foreboding of an America in my children’s or grandchildren’s time — when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what’s true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness…
https://www.openculture.com/2025/02/carl-sagan-predicts-the-...