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The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

bloomberg.com

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Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#11
post #2

Maybe if young folks could afford housing they'd have kids...there's a thought.

If that were true then we would expect to see a positive correlation between income and family size, but households making 500k are basically the same size as households making 50k.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#12
post #6

Sounds hellish. "His administration is focused on delivering on his promise to reduce the immigrant population and argues, despite the protestations of economists, that doing so will mean greater opportunities and wages for native-born workers and will reduce the cost of everything from housing to health care by reducing demand. “There is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force, and President…

“There is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force" - amazing that you can get people to believe that. There is a massive shortage of labor and the labor force participation rate is already dangerously high.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#13
post #5
post #2

Maybe if young folks could afford housing they'd have kids...there's a thought.

More that young(er) folks could afford to live on a single income for the pre-school years. Or, I guess, that there's extensive parental leave and support for the parent doing primary caregiver.

There are many solutions to different aspects of the problem - if we define the problem something like "people get together older, and have kids older, and have fewer."

But even if everything was "easy and perfect" (arguably some other countries have this) - you still have something that is generally discouraging people from having kids.

The median Amish family income is about $65,000 and typically has six to eight children.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#15
post #7
post #3

Maybe they should have a look to what other countries are doing. [0] [0] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/27/spain-decree-r...

The interesting thing is this is Spain's second wave of doing this, and the economic studies on the first wave of it showed visibly positive results. Spain's economy moved in growth, and with a size larger than many other European nations in similar background conditions of flat to negative population growth, but tighter immigration allowances.

Spains youth is everywhere in europe but in spain? That economy sounds like a warzone from what they tell..

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#17
post #2

Maybe if young folks could afford housing they'd have kids...there's a thought.

This is often a commonly blamed reason, but I think the data at this point pretty strongly suggests that the more affluent a country is the less kids they have.

You look at some of the most third world places in the world without strong economic security, yet somehow they manage to have babies at a higher rate than Western countries do.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#18
post #5
post #2

Maybe if young folks could afford housing they'd have kids...there's a thought.

More that young(er) folks could afford to live on a single income for the pre-school years. Or, I guess, that there's extensive parental leave and support for the parent doing primary caregiver.

Mixed in with all this, and possibly preceeding all this, is declining marriage rates. It's significantly riskier, financially and relationally, to have kids without getting married.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#19
post #2

Maybe if young folks could afford housing they'd have kids...there's a thought.

God forbid paying the masses a living wage or allowing them access to things their forebears had. They will own nothing and they will be thankful for it.

[/s just in case it goes over someone's head]

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