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Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

thatjoescott.com

11–20 of 103 posts

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#11
AMOC makes Europe hotter than expected, and US east coast colder.

Europe is already hotter than expected.

AMOC collapse in a heating world wouldn't mean much. It seems to me that whatever cooling from it will be offset by global warming.

AMOC could be a generally bad thing for biodiversity or crops, but it's not going to stop global warming.

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#12

Is this real? https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/research-frontiers/how-a-swiss-... Says it’s not. Seems like this kind of disaster engagement bait that’s super popular now

But doesn’t that article say that it hasn’t weakened from “between 1963 and 2017” with the important caveat being that after 2017, maybe there’s been more acceleration? Some other commenter on this thread also posted a similar statement about how its collapse is unlikely before 2100, but that’s not very far away which should be very concerning.

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#14
post #4

This scary, yet almost nothing on the news. We're living in a fake world and pretending everything is fine. Adam Curtis made a movie HyperNormalisation and we're living it also today. Adam Curtis: “HyperNormalisation” is a word that was coined by a brilliant Russian historian who was writing about what it was like to live in the last years of the Soviet Union. What he said, which I thought was absolutely fascinating,…

The top politicians, academics, businessmen, can party with underage children and even torture them, or dicuss blatant undemocratic actions that impact billions, and it's business as usual.

You think they'd care for something as remote as the AMOC collapse?

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#15
post #4

This scary, yet almost nothing on the news. We're living in a fake world and pretending everything is fine. Adam Curtis made a movie HyperNormalisation and we're living it also today. Adam Curtis: “HyperNormalisation” is a word that was coined by a brilliant Russian historian who was writing about what it was like to live in the last years of the Soviet Union. What he said, which I thought was absolutely fascinating,…

It isn't actually all that scary; humans cope pretty well over a wide variety of temperatures. If the change caught everyone by surprise it'd be a huge problem but it seems to be fairly well understood and there is lots of time to adjust.

Worst case scenario seems to be that people will stop migrating to Europe.

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#16

Is this real? https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/research-frontiers/how-a-swiss-... Says it’s not. Seems like this kind of disaster engagement bait that’s super popular now

>The AMOC will decline substantially, that’s virtually certain and the consequences will be extremely grave. All serious experts (including the nature study you linked a popsci article about) agree this is a problem that will have a devastating impact on humanity in the future. We're just quibbling about how devastating and how soon.

It's important, but if it happens, the main effects are expected to be after 2100. That seems pretty relevant for any plans you might make.

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#17
post #11

AMOC makes Europe hotter than expected, and US east coast colder. Europe is already hotter than expected. AMOC collapse in a heating world wouldn't mean much. It seems to me that whatever cooling from it will be offset by global warming. AMOC could be a generally bad thing for biodiversity or crops, but it's not going to stop global warming.

That's some industrial level cope.

"Climate disaster affecting a mechanism Europe depended for millenia to keep warm? No biggie, we are already have another climate disaster making Europe hotter, they'll just cancel each other out"

Not just second and third order effects, many can't even understand first level effects.

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#18

Is this real? https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/research-frontiers/how-a-swiss-... Says it’s not. Seems like this kind of disaster engagement bait that’s super popular now

Here’s the science: https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/possible-nort...

„Under high-emission scenarios, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a key system of ocean currents that also includes the Gulf Stream, could shut down after the year 2100.“

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#19
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you read the article and that's the overall conclusion you came away with I'm not sure we read the same article. They're just pointing out that timing is uncertain, but the majority of diverse models show AMOC failure within a few generations and nearly all of them do if we extrapolate continued CO2 release growth.

I hate endless catastrophism in the headlines. Article contents doesn't reflect the alarmist statement in the header.

"The house will burn down"

"Don't be alarmist, it's just the curtains that are on fire. Besides, there's a good chance it might rain".

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#20
post #19
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate endless catastrophism in the headlines. Article contents doesn't reflect the alarmist statement in the header.

"The house will burn down" "Don't be alarmist, it's just the curtains that are on fire. Besides, there's a good chance it might rain".

Literally in the article:

“Our paper says that the Atlantic overturning has not declined yet. That doesn’t say anything about its future, but it doesn’t appear the anticipated changes have occurred yet.”

The study is a stark contrast to a 2018 study that said the AMOC had declined over the last 70 years."

...

“Our results imply that, rather than a substantial decline, the AMOC is more likely to experience a limited decline over the 21st century—still some weakening, but less drastic than previous projections suggest.”

Am I the only person here who actually read it?

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