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2026 Predictions Scorecard

rodneybrooks.com

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Re: 2026 Predictions Scorecard

#11

Post by bhelkey »

Of the predictions I read, I found that the author engages in pretty heavy handed rules lawyering in order to make their predictions accurate.

For example, the author takes the stance that current self driving cars (Waymo, Zoox) do not count as self driving. The justification being that a human operator is involved some small fraction of the time.

By law, Waymo must report disengagements in California. In 2024, Waymo had ~10 thousand miles driven per disengagement, Zoox had ~28 thousand miles driven per disengagement [1]. I would say that this rate of human intervention qualifies as self driving.

[1] https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2025/02/03/2024-disen...

Re: 2026 Predictions Scorecard

#12

Post by strange_quark »

bhelkey wrote: post #11

Of the predictions I read, I found that the author engages in pretty heavy handed rules lawyering in order to make their predictions accurate. For example, the author takes the stance that current self driving cars (Waymo, Zoox) do not count as self driving. The justification being that a human operator is involved some small fraction of the time. By law, Waymo must report disengagements in California. In 2024, Waymo…

On the contrary, it’s the companies doing the lawyering. A disengagement is when the vehicle reverts fully back to manual control. Tele-operation does not count as a disengagement, and the frequency of tele-operation intervention is a closely guarded industry secret.

Re: 2026 Predictions Scorecard

#13

Post by brandall10 »

strange_quark wrote: post #12
bhelkey wrote: post #11

Of the predictions I read, I found that the author engages in pretty heavy handed rules lawyering in order to make their predictions accurate. For example, the author takes the stance that current self driving cars (Waymo, Zoox) do not count as self driving. The justification being that a human operator is involved some small fraction of the time. By law, Waymo must report disengagements in California. In 2024, Waymo…

On the contrary, it’s the companies doing the lawyering. A disengagement is when the vehicle reverts fully back to manual control. Tele-operation does not count as a disengagement, and the frequency of tele-operation intervention is a closely guarded industry secret.

You seem to have some deeper insight into this - in your estimation, how often does tele-operation (even a small correction) take place?

Re: 2026 Predictions Scorecard

#14

Post by kqr »

bhelkey wrote: post #11

Of the predictions I read, I found that the author engages in pretty heavy handed rules lawyering in order to make their predictions accurate. For example, the author takes the stance that current self driving cars (Waymo, Zoox) do not count as self driving. The justification being that a human operator is involved some small fraction of the time. By law, Waymo must report disengagements in California. In 2024, Waymo…

Predicting well absent lawyering is really hard! If someone else wants to try I warmly recommend starting with e.g. the ACX 2026 prediction contest: https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ACX2026/

Re: 2026 Predictions Scorecard

#15

Post by strange_quark »

brandall10 wrote: post #13
strange_quark wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the contrary, it’s the companies doing the lawyering. A disengagement is when the vehicle reverts fully back to manual control. Tele-operation does not count as a disengagement, and the frequency of tele-operation intervention is a closely guarded industry secret.

You seem to have some deeper insight into this - in your estimation, how often does tele-operation (even a small correction) take place?

There’s been reporting on this in several mainstream publications that was accurate as far as the systems I worked with. Unfortunately I don’t want to dox myself on here, so unsatisfyingly the best I can offer is “trust me bro”.

Re: 2026 Predictions Scorecard

#16

Post by Aurornis »

1970-01-01 wrote: post #5

Flying cars are nearly ready. That prediction of it not happening until 2036 is going to be set false the soonest. Alef Aero cars just started manufacturing. https://www.flyingmag.com/california-firm-first-flying-car-p...

> According to Dukhovny, a Model A prototype has been flying for years. However, there are no videos of the vehicle making the transition from a car to an aircraft. It will need to prove that capability, as well as its adherence to the rules of both the road and the sky.

> Dukhovny said the Model A will initially be certified as a “low-speed vehicle” on the ground, limiting it to about 25 mph on public roadways.

Sounds like they're just barely doing enough to meet the definition of "car" there, if it works at all. You'd think a video would at least exist if these are in production.

This sounds more like a personal aircraft where you can fold the wings in and propel it with a motor, not what people think of as "flying cars"

Re: 2026 Predictions Scorecard

#17

Post by cosmicgadget »

1970-01-01 wrote: post #5

Flying cars are nearly ready. That prediction of it not happening until 2036 is going to be set false the soonest. Alef Aero cars just started manufacturing. https://www.flyingmag.com/california-firm-first-flying-car-p...

> started manufacturing

There is a large graveyard of EV companies that hit this milestone. And they had a relatively easy problem space as well as a massive addressable market.

Re: 2026 Predictions Scorecard

#18

Post by bhelkey »

kqr wrote: post #14
bhelkey wrote: post #11

Of the predictions I read, I found that the author engages in pretty heavy handed rules lawyering in order to make their predictions accurate. For example, the author takes the stance that current self driving cars (Waymo, Zoox) do not count as self driving. The justification being that a human operator is involved some small fraction of the time. By law, Waymo must report disengagements in California. In 2024, Waymo…

Predicting well absent lawyering is really hard! If someone else wants to try I warmly recommend starting with e.g. the ACX 2026 prediction contest: https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ACX2026/

> Predicting well absent lawyering is really hard!

The author engages in rules lawyering of the evaluation of the predictions. The original predictions are clear.

Another example of this is the author's prediction that no robot will be able to navigate around the clutter in a US home, "What is easy for humans is still very, very hard for robots."

The author evaluated this prediction as not being met, "...I don't count as home robots small four legged robots that flail their legs quickly to beat gravity, and are therefore unsafe to be around children, and that can't do anything at all with their form factor besides scramble".

The author added constraints not in the original prediction (safe around children, must include a form factor able to preform an action, ...) then evaluated the prediction as accurate because no home robot met the original constraint + the new constraints.

Re: 2026 Predictions Scorecard

#20

Post by porphyra »

lbourdages wrote: post #7
christianqchung wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla? I don't love the company or the owner, but it seems silly to completely dismiss them so early on, relatively speaking. Self driving has been a decades long effort; even though I am heavily in favor of Waymo, some speculation towards Tesla's path seems fair. At the same time, I agree with the article here: > Tesla (owned by Tesla) has put on a facade of being operational, but it is not operational in the sense…

Given Tesla's abysmal track record on keeping their promises I feel like it is justified to dismiss them, at the risk of being surprised if they do make it.

Both of these can be true at the same time:

* Elon has been making wildly exaggerated and over-optimistic claims for a decade and continues to do so

* Tesla has recently made huge strides in capability and has a clear path to full autonomy

And to be fair, many other car companies also promised self driving cars, e.g. Audi in 2014 promising driverless cars by 2016 [1]. It's just that Tesla is still executing on the promise whereas many other carmakers have fizzled out on their ambitions. As the Rodney Brooks article itself mentions,

> As a reminder of how strong the hype was and the certainty of promises that it was just around the corner here is a snapshot of a whole bunch of predictions by major executives from 2017.

[1] https://www.digitalspy.com/tech/a610930/audi-promises-to-del...

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