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AGI Is Here

robinsloan.com

11–20 of 30 posts

Re: AGI Is Here

#11
I want a thing that has a fuzzy capability .

To make this easier to discuss and think about, here's a short name for that thing, and a longer definition that probably describes that thing.

.

Oh look, if I take the literal definitions of some words in , there's a thing that fits!

Therefore is solved!

Re: AGI Is Here

#13

> If you appeared in a puff of smoke before the authors of that paper, just after publication — a few months before half of them cleaved from OpenAI to form Anthropic — and carried with you a laptop linked through time to the big models of 2026, what would their appraisal be ? There’s no doubt in my mind they would say: Wow, we really did it ! This is obviously AGI! I really don't think this would be the reaction. I'…

> It's clear that we need a paradigm shift on memory to unlock the next level of performance.

I think this is on point to the next phase of LLMs or a different neural network architecture that improves on top of them, alongside continual learning.

Adding memory capabilities would mostly benefit local "reasoning" models than online ones as you would be saving tokens to do more tasks, than generating more tokens to use more "skills" or tools. (Unless you pay more for memory capabilities to Anthropic or OpenAI).

It's kind of why you see LLMs being unable to play certain games or doing hundreds of visual tasks very quickly without adding lots of harnesses and tools or giving it a pre-defined map to help it understand the visual setting.

As I said before [0], the easiest way to understand the memory limitations with LLMs is Claude Playing Pokemon with it struggling with basic tasks that a 5 year old can learn continuously.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43291895

Re: AGI Is Here

#14
post #6

I'll say AGI is "here" when they are agents in our Slack/chat, emails, and planning tools doing that strategic work that management does. As a dev, "AI" is currently just a handy English language interface to web search.

You could argue LLMs already achieve the same work that management does.

Yeah I think a lot of the mediocre PM type work of getting from this tool, input, etc to summarizing requirements into that tool, etc is exactly what LLMs do well.

Re: AGI Is Here

#15

> If you appeared in a puff of smoke before the authors of that paper, just after publication — a few months before half of them cleaved from OpenAI to form Anthropic — and carried with you a laptop linked through time to the big models of 2026, what would their appraisal be ? There’s no doubt in my mind they would say: Wow, we really did it ! This is obviously AGI! I really don't think this would be the reaction. I'…

with beads, or shoving it in git, or .MD files, it's not clear that we do.

Re: AGI Is Here

#16

> If you appeared in a puff of smoke before the authors of that paper, just after publication — a few months before half of them cleaved from OpenAI to form Anthropic — and carried with you a laptop linked through time to the big models of 2026, what would their appraisal be ? There’s no doubt in my mind they would say: Wow, we really did it ! This is obviously AGI! I really don't think this would be the reaction. I'…

with beads, or shoving it in git, or .MD files, it's not clear that we do.

These are all very much in the same category of hacks that I mentioned.

A cat doesn't know its way around a house when it's born, but it also doesn't have to flick through markdown files to find its way around. A child can touch a hot stove once and be neurotic about touching hot things for the rest of their life, without having to read flash cards each morning or think for a few minutes about "what do I know about stoves" every time they're in the kitchen.

Re: AGI Is Here

#17
post #13

> If you appeared in a puff of smoke before the authors of that paper, just after publication — a few months before half of them cleaved from OpenAI to form Anthropic — and carried with you a laptop linked through time to the big models of 2026, what would their appraisal be ? There’s no doubt in my mind they would say: Wow, we really did it ! This is obviously AGI! I really don't think this would be the reaction. I'…

> It's clear that we need a paradigm shift on memory to unlock the next level of performance. I think this is on point to the next phase of LLMs or a different neural network architecture that improves on top of them, alongside continual learning. Adding memory capabilities would mostly benefit local "reasoning" models than online ones as you would be saving tokens to do more tasks, than generating more tokens to use…

Continual learning is definitely part of it. Perhaps part of it (or something else) is learning much faster from many fewer examples.

Re: AGI Is Here

#20

> If you appeared in a puff of smoke before the authors of that paper, just after publication — a few months before half of them cleaved from OpenAI to form Anthropic — and carried with you a laptop linked through time to the big models of 2026, what would their appraisal be ? There’s no doubt in my mind they would say: Wow, we really did it ! This is obviously AGI! I really don't think this would be the reaction. I'…

We have LLM memory, it's a training data from which the model was initially programmed. To allow adding or changing LLM memory, we would need to retrain model completely or partially. And that is not realistic any time soon. All other attempts at LLM memory would be just an obscure hack of splitting context window into parts and feeding input from different files. Literally nothing would change if you input half of the query from one file, half from another called "memory.txt" or if you just input whole query from a single file twice as big.
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