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Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

theguardian.com

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Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#11

Post by neogodless »

everfrustrated wrote: post #8

I don't think people have quite realized Cybercab is also a hedge against vehicle sales dropping. Musk can keep the factory at high utilization by pumping out cabs at cost and start collecting rideshare income. Tesla just announced Cybercab is now in production.

Based on Tesla's stock price and P/E ratio, it would seem most people do believe what you're suggesting, right?

But I am curious what the end-to-end math looks like for all costs incurred in Cybercab rideshare services, maintenance, insurance, repairs, and so forth, and how that calculates out per mile. And of course the volume of rideshares, given the tepid pace most Tesla announcements come to fruition and scale.

The Model 3 / Y scaled better than many predicted, but since then, other promises have gone the other way.

Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#12

Post by jqpabc123 »

everfrustrated wrote: post #8

I don't think people have quite realized Cybercab is also a hedge against vehicle sales dropping. Musk can keep the factory at high utilization by pumping out cabs at cost and start collecting rideshare income. Tesla just announced Cybercab is now in production.

I don't think you quite realize that Cybercab is a long, long way from scaling into a profitable business.

Safety and remote drivers are a huge barrier to achieving this. As is legal liability for accidents. Uber sidesteps this issue completely since it is the driver's responsibility.

Word is that Robotaxi is crashing at a higher rate than human drivers in Austin --- even with safety drivers.

https://www.technology.org/2025/11/03/teslas-robotaxi-fleet-...

Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#13

Post by neogodless »

thelastgallon wrote: post #9

What happens when TSLA speculation finally hits reality? It was understandable when growth was 50% yoy, but now its negative growth YOY and PE is 300. Would it take down the entire stock market with it because it unravels the many layers of leverage/margin or would money flow to other speculations?

I'm not sure how much of "the stock market" TSLA makes up, but at current valuation, it makes up 1.9% of VTI (so that's a good estimation). So it could blink out of existence and only take VTI down 2%. (2% is significant of course.) But more likely might be a slow erosion while other components grow, making index funds and "the entire stock market" quite resilient to such a shock.

Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#14

Post by bdangubic »

everfrustrated wrote: post #8

I don't think people have quite realized Cybercab is also a hedge against vehicle sales dropping. Musk can keep the factory at high utilization by pumping out cabs at cost and start collecting rideshare income. Tesla just announced Cybercab is now in production.

so we should expect to see it by 2065?

Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#15

Post by bdangubic »

thelastgallon wrote: post #9

What happens when TSLA speculation finally hits reality? It was understandable when growth was 50% yoy, but now its negative growth YOY and PE is 300. Would it take down the entire stock market with it because it unravels the many layers of leverage/margin or would money flow to other speculations?

you wrote TSLA and reality in the same sentence :)

people keep forgetting that TSLA is not a car company! they are AI and humanoid and robots and … company and as such worth 100x current eval :)

Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#17

Post by disqard »

bdangubic wrote: post #15
thelastgallon wrote: post #9

What happens when TSLA speculation finally hits reality? It was understandable when growth was 50% yoy, but now its negative growth YOY and PE is 300. Would it take down the entire stock market with it because it unravels the many layers of leverage/margin or would money flow to other speculations?

you wrote TSLA and reality in the same sentence :) people keep forgetting that TSLA is not a car company! they are AI and humanoid and robots and … company and as such worth 100x current eval :)

...you forgot "terraforming Mars" :)

Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#18

Post by ahartmetz »

triceratops wrote: post #16
vijay_erramilli wrote: post #5

stock will reach an all time high based on this news..

TSLA going pre-revenue.

Maybe they will even invent post-revenue economics. Or, with the benefit of the doubt, between-revenues economics.

Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#19

Post by sixQuarks »

bdangubic wrote: post #15
thelastgallon wrote: post #9

What happens when TSLA speculation finally hits reality? It was understandable when growth was 50% yoy, but now its negative growth YOY and PE is 300. Would it take down the entire stock market with it because it unravels the many layers of leverage/margin or would money flow to other speculations?

you wrote TSLA and reality in the same sentence :) people keep forgetting that TSLA is not a car company! they are AI and humanoid and robots and … company and as such worth 100x current eval :)

Solving autonomy is the hardest technical challenge right now, way harder than creating a frontier LLM AI. Tesla has basically solved it. So to argue sarcastically about Tesla is in my opinion being ignorant. I get the Elon hate, but he is usually correct in his predictions, albeit late

Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#20

Post by sixQuarks »

jqpabc123 wrote: post #12
everfrustrated wrote: post #8

I don't think people have quite realized Cybercab is also a hedge against vehicle sales dropping. Musk can keep the factory at high utilization by pumping out cabs at cost and start collecting rideshare income. Tesla just announced Cybercab is now in production.

I don't think you quite realize that Cybercab is a long, long way from scaling into a profitable business. Safety and remote drivers are a huge barrier to achieving this. As is legal liability for accidents. Uber sidesteps this issue completely since it is the driver's responsibility. Word is that Robotaxi is crashing at a higher rate than human drivers in Austin --- even with safety drivers. https://www.technology.o…

I don’t think you realize that Tesla has basically solved autonomy. you are obviously not using the latest Tesla version of FSD
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