Live data from Hacker News

Travel agents took 10 years to collapse. Developers are 3 years in

martinalderson.com

11–20 of 34 posts

Re: Travel agents took 10 years to collapse. Developers are 3 years in

#11
post #5

From the home page of the website. > I also teach workshops on AI development for engineering teams So yet another article playing on FOMO about how urgent it is to get in tune with LLM usage written by someone who teaches how to use LLM.

OP started blogging in August and AI appears to have a heavy role in the writing process. In a cool world mods would just ban the domain.

Re: Travel agents took 10 years to collapse. Developers are 3 years in

#12

> If your job is to translate requirements into code manually - and that's it - you're the generalist travel agent. I’ve been a full-stack web programmer at five different companies over the last fifteen years, big and small, e-commerce and B2B, junior to senior to staff, and that has never fully described my responsibilities.

Which responsibilities do you figure are a combination of highly valuable in your role, and resistant to automation?

Re: Travel agents took 10 years to collapse. Developers are 3 years in

#13
You guys remember HN from 2010, back when all software devs in the US and the EU would be out of job due to outsourcing?

It's incredible that 15 years later, all software devs still have a job, but this time they're going to be out of job due to AI.

Let me guess: in 15 years software devs are going to be fine but they'll all be out of their job soon because of, dunno, quantum computing maybe?

Re: Travel agents took 10 years to collapse. Developers are 3 years in

#16

You guys remember HN from 2010, back when all software devs in the US and the EU would be out of job due to outsourcing? It's incredible that 15 years later, all software devs still have a job, but this time they're going to be out of job due to AI. Let me guess: in 15 years software devs are going to be fine but they'll all be out of their job soon because of, dunno, quantum computing maybe?

> all software devs still have a job

As far as I can tell from comments on this site, that is far from reality. It's a tough market right now.

Re: Travel agents took 10 years to collapse. Developers are 3 years in

#17
> We're at ~2.5 years since the release of GPT-4 (the first model that could really attempt to code on any serious level) and LLM usage is >40% of the entire US population.

Sure, if you count "Google forced an AI-generated overview into my search, and I clicked on 'read more' once." as LLM usage.

> Even more astoundingly, according to the Stack Overflow developer survey LLM adoption in software engineering went from 0% in 2022 to 84% (!) in 2025

This simply isn't true. The 84% is for "using or planning to use AI tools in their development process". That's not about LLMs, not specifically about software engineering, and not even a "currently using"! Look at something like "Yes, I use AI agents at work daily" and the real figure is closer to 14%. So how do people use it? Not to write anything, but primarily as a search engine!

I don't doubt that AI is going to change software development. But let's be real about it: they aren't going to collapse the software developer industry any more than the invention of the microwave collapsed the restaurant industry.

Re: Travel agents took 10 years to collapse. Developers are 3 years in

#19
post #4

Off topic, but I’d love a good travel agent: someone who would help me cut through all the SEO and slop reviews to find the good hotels, tours, etc., and take care of booking and logistics. We’ve used some location-specific agencies that have been really good to work with, but you first have to find them . I’d happily pay a premium to someone who would work globally. Do such things exist?

You can still hire personal assistants to do grunt work like that

But how are you ever going to find a halfway-competent personal assistant for the occasional bounded task like that?

I need someone to spend a few days every couple of years to plan a holiday, not someone who is available several hours a day to read my emails for me.

Re: Travel agents took 10 years to collapse. Developers are 3 years in

#20

I remember using travel agents in the 1990s. Maybe it was just the particular ones I dealt with, but the experience was terrible. I was supposed to tell them what I wanted, they would look it up, and then I'd write them a check for whatever amount they told me it would cost. Then along came the internet portals where you could easily see all of your options/prices, without a single sigh from a travel agent. To my kno…

Yeah by the 90s the travel agents had metastasized into a middle man. The airlines saw them as a necessary evil because they made bookings appear automatically in SABRE to fill up their planes without having to do any customer outreach or support.

From the perspective of the customer you were a lamb to the slaughter. They could find you the best option, or they could just sell you the itinerary that made them the biggest commission. Finding an honest travel agent was a bit like finding an honest stock broker or car salesman.

Airlines putting their availability online was easy (it was already digitized) and they didn't really have much reason not to do it. They had little loyalty to the agents, and from their perspective a booking coming through priceline was no different than a booking coming from an agent. Customer satisfaction was higher because the customer felt like they had more control and transparency.

Post reply on HN