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The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue

garymarcus.substack.com

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Re: The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue

#11

Post by Havoc »

grim_io wrote: post #10
Havoc wrote: post #8

Still the same flaw in his analysis. Humans are unreliable too and the entire damn economy runs on them. You just need good enough, and AI is getting better daily.

It only gets better daily at stuff it already kinda could do. It can write my code a bit less shitty tomorrow, but that doesn't sound like the fulfillment of the promises given. Tomorrow, another company will yet again fail to integrate agentic workflows.

That seems true.

Even with current abilities if they're just rolled out it's still trillions of the economy.

A bit like OK Waymo isn't perfect but it works in SF...we don't need a giant breakthrough to bring it to another 1000 cities.

Everyone is focused on how to make the models better (rightly), but impact and economic viability is in implementation and there is a lot of low hanging fruit there.

>another company will yet again fail to integrate agentic workflows.

'tis true

Re: The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue

#12

Post by pants2 »

I have been asking myself the question of how useful an LLM would be that has perfect intelligence. Meaning that for any question you give it that can possibly be answered with the given information, you will get the right answer.

Obviously, it would be very useful, but still limited by it's context and prompt. For many tasks, coding models are getting close. It will do everything I ask generally correctly the first time. Around half the re-dos are because I under-specified the prompt. Soon that will be 100% of re-dos, and the programming aspect of my job will be mostly focused on writing good prompts, yet I will still be here identifying and translating real-world requirements into prompts.

We are quickly approaching a situation where LLMs can ace all benchmarks, and yet still not see the insane ROI that the frontier labs are predicting because humans are a bottleneck, and so is experiment.

For example that perfect LLM may be able to find the cure to cancer, but all the research in the world isn't enough information to answer that question, so we need to conduct experiments and learn more. Maybe that can speed up humanity's cancer discoveries by 10X, but not 1000X, purely because of the experiment bottleneck.

Re: The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue

#14

Post by thegrim000 »

Havoc wrote: post #8

Still the same flaw in his analysis. Humans are unreliable too and the entire damn economy runs on them. You just need good enough, and AI is getting better daily.

What analysis? There is no analysis. "The economics don't make sense to me and therefore it'll crash and burn", and "here's two articles from mainstream media that are worried about AI spending". That's the extent of the article's content. That's the extent of the analysis. He himself offers absolutely zero argument, data, or facts.

Re: The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue

#15

Post by tim333 »

There was an interesting take on it on youtube today, Bill Gurley (VC) talking to Tim Ferris (interviewer) on if it's a bubble, based on some research:

> ...every time there's been a technology wave that leads to wealth creation, especially fast wealth creation, that will inherently invite speculators, carpetbaggers, interlopers that want to come take advantage of it. Think of the gold rush, you know, and so people want to make it a debate. Do you believe in AI or is it a bubble? And if you say you think it's a bubble, they say, "Oh, you don't believe in AI." Like this gotcha kind of thing. And if you study Perez, and I I think this is absolutely correct. If the wave is real, then you're going to have bubble-like behavior. like they come together as a pair precisely because anytime there's very quick wealth creation, you're going to get a lot of people that want to come try and take advantage of that.

Seems about right to me. https://youtu.be/D0230eZsRFw

Re: The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue

#16

Post by Ianjit »

pants2 wrote: post #12

I have been asking myself the question of how useful an LLM would be that has perfect intelligence. Meaning that for any question you give it that can possibly be answered with the given information, you will get the right answer. Obviously, it would be very useful, but still limited by it's context and prompt. For many tasks, coding models are getting close. It will do everything I ask generally correctly the first…

Why assume the breakdown between benchmarks and RoI is due to humans? The map is not the territory, the benchmark is not reality, there world is more complex than computer scientists understand.

Re: The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue

#17

Post by pants2 »

Ianjit wrote: post #16
pants2 wrote: post #12

I have been asking myself the question of how useful an LLM would be that has perfect intelligence. Meaning that for any question you give it that can possibly be answered with the given information, you will get the right answer. Obviously, it would be very useful, but still limited by it's context and prompt. For many tasks, coding models are getting close. It will do everything I ask generally correctly the first…

Why assume the breakdown between benchmarks and RoI is due to humans? The map is not the territory, the benchmark is not reality, there world is more complex than computer scientists understand.

Benchmarks are moving closer to reality though with things like FrontierScience and SWE-Bench Pro

Re: The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue

#18

Post by Ianjit »

pants2 wrote: post #17
Ianjit wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why assume the breakdown between benchmarks and RoI is due to humans? The map is not the territory, the benchmark is not reality, there world is more complex than computer scientists understand.

Benchmarks are moving closer to reality though with things like FrontierScience and SWE-Bench Pro

Maybe you are right, but maybe it’s radiology all over again.

Re: The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue

#19

Post by tim333 »

pants2 wrote: post #12

I have been asking myself the question of how useful an LLM would be that has perfect intelligence. Meaning that for any question you give it that can possibly be answered with the given information, you will get the right answer. Obviously, it would be very useful, but still limited by it's context and prompt. For many tasks, coding models are getting close. It will do everything I ask generally correctly the first…

You could do a lot with perfect intelligence. Print out the formulas for cures to cancer and als. Print out the code for self improving AGI, meaning of life, why there's something rather than nothing and so on.

Re: The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue

#20

Post by tim333 »

ta9000 wrote: post #13
chvid wrote: post #2

It is a bit silly calling a top at this point.

“Have you met Gary Marcus?”

You can check https://hn.algolia.com/?query=garrymarcus for ~286 previous Gary Marcus stories with similar content.

Also check out ten years into the future https://sw.vtom.net/hn35/pages/90099333.html https://sw.vtom.net/hn35/item.html?id=90099333 from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46205632

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