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Nvidia plans heavy cuts to GPU supply in early 2026

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Re: Nvidia plans heavy cuts to GPU supply in early 2026

#11

Post by ssl-3 »

kowbell wrote: post #8
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't get this. Nvidia didn't "bet the farm" on AI. They are simply allocating limited resources (in this case memory) to their most profitable products. Yes, it sucks for gamers, but I see Nvidia more reacting to the current marketplace than driving that change. If/when the AI bubble bursts, Nvidia will just readjust their resource allocation accordingly.

I also don't understand common sentiment that if/when the AI bubble pops and hardware manufacturers come crawling back, we consumers are going to make manufacturers regret their decision. Isn't the whole problem that all the manufacturers are pivoting away from consumers and toward AI? How are we going to "hurt Nvidia in the pocketbook?" Buy from their competitors? But they are also making these pivots/"turning their…

If/when the bubble pops, manufacturers will find that they can't butter their bread like they could when the datacenter craze was booming. In a world that is paved by growth, companies aren't very good at shrinking.

It doesn't matter what consumers do or don't do -- we plebians are a tiny portion of their present market. We can buy the same GPUs from the same folks as before, or we can do something different, and it won't matter.

Whatever we do will be a rounding error in the jagged, gaping, infected hole where the AI market once was.

Re: Nvidia plans heavy cuts to GPU supply in early 2026

#12

Post by nullocator »

xacky wrote: post #9

Nvidia is chasing trends again, they did it for crypto mining, and I bet some new fad will come up soon. It looks like the gaming industry needs to move to something else than the current GPU ecosystem in the long term. Intel Arc and Moore Threads have tried, but we really need a new way of designing and rendering graphics.

Or nvidia could be broken up and different companies could focus on consumer and enterprise divisions.

Re: Nvidia plans heavy cuts to GPU supply in early 2026

#13

Post by tracker1 »

I think it's maybe time for game developers to spend more effort/time on gameplay and a bit less on AAA+++ graphics that only top GPUs can handle. Maybe hard targeting iGPU/APU for mid-level support in games.

For that matter, plenty of room to remake/reskin older (fun) games... Bring the Black Mesa effect to lots of existing games.

Re: Nvidia plans heavy cuts to GPU supply in early 2026

#14

Post by smilebot »

TheAmazingRace wrote: post #3

I do feel there might be a day of reckoning where Nvidia bet the farm too hard on this AI bubble and it ends up blowing up in their face. I hope gamers, systems integrators, and regular PC enthusiasts don't have memories of goldfish and go back to business as usual. It needs to hurt Nvidia in the pocketbook. Will this happen? Unlikely, but hope springs eternal.

Why take this personally. They are a business. It’s one thing if they did something unethical, but I don’t think this is grudge worthy.

If anything this shows how small the gaming market really is for them. This opens the playing field for new companies to capture.

I find it admirable that they are able to intensify focus on an area they see the most value.

Re: Nvidia plans heavy cuts to GPU supply in early 2026

#15

Post by HWR_14 »

nullocator wrote: post #12
xacky wrote: post #9

Nvidia is chasing trends again, they did it for crypto mining, and I bet some new fad will come up soon. It looks like the gaming industry needs to move to something else than the current GPU ecosystem in the long term. Intel Arc and Moore Threads have tried, but we really need a new way of designing and rendering graphics.

Or nvidia could be broken up and different companies could focus on consumer and enterprise divisions.

I'm sure half their employees will love being removed from the AI profit train.

Re: Nvidia plans heavy cuts to GPU supply in early 2026

#16

Post by cedws »

tracker1 wrote: post #13

I think it's maybe time for game developers to spend more effort/time on gameplay and a bit less on AAA+++ graphics that only top GPUs can handle. Maybe hard targeting iGPU/APU for mid-level support in games. For that matter, plenty of room to remake/reskin older (fun) games... Bring the Black Mesa effect to lots of existing games.

Games now don’t even look good enough to justify the enormous computing power they require. They’re a stuttery and blurry mess, augmented by fake AI frames, LOD popping, weird screen space rendering defects, and so on. Graphics peaked 10 years ago.

Re: Nvidia plans heavy cuts to GPU supply in early 2026

#17

Post by TheAmazingRace »

smilebot wrote: post #14
TheAmazingRace wrote: post #3

I do feel there might be a day of reckoning where Nvidia bet the farm too hard on this AI bubble and it ends up blowing up in their face. I hope gamers, systems integrators, and regular PC enthusiasts don't have memories of goldfish and go back to business as usual. It needs to hurt Nvidia in the pocketbook. Will this happen? Unlikely, but hope springs eternal.

Why take this personally. They are a business. It’s one thing if they did something unethical, but I don’t think this is grudge worthy. If anything this shows how small the gaming market really is for them. This opens the playing field for new companies to capture. I find it admirable that they are able to intensify focus on an area they see the most value.

Hardly taking this personally. Just calling out how I see it going most likely. Also... Nvidia has done quite a bit unethically. Namely violating anti-monopoly laws (though with our current US administration - they may as well be not worth the paper they are printed on), screwing with product reviewers, pulling a 90s-era Microsoft to obliterate their competition at all costs, and screwing over their board partners, like EVGA. GamersNexus on Youtube has covered plenty of this.

That said, although AI has some uniquely good applications, this AI mania is feeding into some ridiculous corporate feedback loop that is having a negative impact on the consumer.

Having to pay several thousands of dollars for a top tier consumer GeForce when it was possible to do the same with only a few hundred dollars less than a decade ago is telling me the customer is being taken for a ride. It stinks.

Re: Nvidia plans heavy cuts to GPU supply in early 2026

#18

Post by TheAmazingRace »

kristianp wrote: post #10
TheAmazingRace wrote: post #3

I do feel there might be a day of reckoning where Nvidia bet the farm too hard on this AI bubble and it ends up blowing up in their face. I hope gamers, systems integrators, and regular PC enthusiasts don't have memories of goldfish and go back to business as usual. It needs to hurt Nvidia in the pocketbook. Will this happen? Unlikely, but hope springs eternal.

NVidias share price will take a hit when consolidation starts in AI, because their business won't be growing as fast as their PE ratio implies. Also the circular deals could hurt them if one of the AI providers they've invested in goes bust.[1],[2]. They won't go out of business but holders of their shares may lose lots of money. But will this happen after Anthropic and OpenAI have their IPOs, possibly next year? NVi…

If OpenAI has their IPO, this is likely going to result in retail getting fleeced, given how their return on their investments to date has been absolutely pitiful. They are seeing revenues of around $13 billion for 2025, with an alleged over $100 billion or more by 2030, but the investments they are making are orders of magnitude greater. Who is ultimately going to pay for this?

Surely OpenAI has customers buying their pro packages for ChatGPT, but that can't really be it. And businesses are starting to realize that AI can't replace the workforce that easily either.

Re: Nvidia plans heavy cuts to GPU supply in early 2026

#19

Post by TheAmazingRace »

ssl-3 wrote: post #11
kowbell wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also don't understand common sentiment that if/when the AI bubble pops and hardware manufacturers come crawling back, we consumers are going to make manufacturers regret their decision. Isn't the whole problem that all the manufacturers are pivoting away from consumers and toward AI? How are we going to "hurt Nvidia in the pocketbook?" Buy from their competitors? But they are also making these pivots/"turning their…

If/when the bubble pops, manufacturers will find that they can't butter their bread like they could when the datacenter craze was booming. In a world that is paved by growth, companies aren't very good at shrinking. It doesn't matter what consumers do or don't do -- we plebians are a tiny portion of their present market. We can buy the same GPUs from the same folks as before, or we can do something different, and it…

This is an even-handed take. I still think consumers in general should vote with their wallets, even if all of them put together won't hold a candle to their datacenter customers. If nothing else, it can grant the competition more market share, and maybe AMD and Intel can invest more into Radeon and Arc, respectively. That can only be a good thing, since I'd love to see more broad support for FSR and XeSS technologies on games, and ROCm and oneAPI for compute.

Re: Nvidia plans heavy cuts to GPU supply in early 2026

#20

Post by nirav72 »

tracker1 wrote: post #13

I think it's maybe time for game developers to spend more effort/time on gameplay and a bit less on AAA+++ graphics that only top GPUs can handle. Maybe hard targeting iGPU/APU for mid-level support in games. For that matter, plenty of room to remake/reskin older (fun) games... Bring the Black Mesa effect to lots of existing games.

After I read this article, I realized that I have a huge backlog of unplayed/partially played games in my steam library. Significant chunk of those games are from Indie devs. Probably enough games to last me a year or two. Plus, most of them seem like they will run just fine at max to high settings using my 3080 Ti on a 1440p display. Point is, I really need to stop looking for the next hardware refresh so I can keep playing newer big budget titles. This and current memory prices made it easy for me to forget about upgrading for the next 2-3 years.
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