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Economics of Orbital vs. Terrestrial Data Centers

andrewmccalip.com

11–20 of 282 posts

Re: Economics of Orbital vs. Terrestrial Data Centers

#11
post #7
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Demand for what? A sealab like head in the sand view of lack of data regulation requirements?

specific software applications you can run in space that you can't run on Earth or can't run cheaper on Earth.

What’s software that would benefit from running in space? The only thing I can imagine is processing of data generated in space so you need less downlink or can reduce latency, everything else can be calculated wherever you want, no?

Re: Economics of Orbital vs. Terrestrial Data Centers

#14
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

specific software applications you can run in space that you can't run on Earth or can't run cheaper on Earth.

What’s software that would benefit from running in space? The only thing I can imagine is processing of data generated in space so you need less downlink or can reduce latency, everything else can be calculated wherever you want, no?

...you have to pay me a lot for the answer to this question.

Re: Economics of Orbital vs. Terrestrial Data Centers

#16
> ...we should be actively goading more billionaires into spending on irrational, high-variance projects that might actually advance civilization. I feel genuine secondhand embarrassment watching people torch their fortunes on yachts and status cosplay. No one cares about your Loro Piana.

I 100% agree with this. There are ~2,600 billionaires in the world and we should encourage all of them to spend their money. Even buying a superyacht is a benefit to the economy. But the best billionaires, like Bill Gates and Elon Musk, are actually trying to advance the tech tree.

We are honestly lucky that Musk is wired funny. Any normal human being would retire and hang out on the beach with supermodels after all the abuse he has taken. But he takes it all as a personal challenge and doubles down. That is both his worst quality and his best.

Re: Economics of Orbital vs. Terrestrial Data Centers

#17
post #3

As an expert in this field, I can assure that cost is not the most important factor. Demand is.

But if cost of the space GPUs is higher then the land GPUs, why would demand matter? Is there limited land? Are space GPUs better for some reason, like perhaps they can't be regulated as easily or because our AGI overlords will be less vulnerable to mobs with pitchforks?

Re: Economics of Orbital vs. Terrestrial Data Centers

#18
This is very well done! I love including all the sliders so that we can play with the (reasonable looking) assumptions the author has made. Like the author, I share their surprise that the result did not come out even more in favor of terrestrial GPUs.

Re: Economics of Orbital vs. Terrestrial Data Centers

#19
Will these space-based data centers run on rad-hard silicon (which is dog slow compared to anything on Earth) or just silently accept wrong results, hardware lockups and permanent failure due to the harsh space environment? Will they cool that hardware with special über-expensive high-temperature Peltiers that heat the radiators up to visible incandescence so that the heat can be shed with any efficiency? There's zillions of those issues. The whole idea is just bonkers.

Re: Economics of Orbital vs. Terrestrial Data Centers

#20

I suspect that this orbital data centers isn't entirely about dollars (No doubt dollars are important). I suspect it is about the regulatory environment. The regulatory environment on data centers is moving quickly. Data centers used to be considered a small portion of the economy and thus benign and not worth extorting/controlling. This seems to be changing, rapidly. Given that data centers only exchange information…

True, but businesses don't care about regulations except where it costs them money. Also, remember that time is money, so any regulatory delays cost real money to a business. My point is that you can actually reduce it all to dollars. And I believe that the cost of orbital data centers will come down due to technological advances, while the cost of regulation will only go up, because of local and global opposition.

"My point is that you can actually reduce it all to dollars."

I'm not sure. A couple of points:

1) The regulatory landscape is enormous. It is unknown from which angle regulators will "slow you down."

2) As I mentioned the regulatory frameworks in this area are evolving very quickly. It is unknown what the regulations will be in 1, 2, 5 years and how that will impact your business.

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