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Is it a bubble?

oaktreecapital.com

11–20 of 605 posts

Re: Is it a bubble?

#11
Of course it's a bubble. Valuations are propped up by speculative spending and AI seems unable to make enough profit to make back the continued spending.

Now, that's not to say AI isn't useful and we won't have AGI in the future. But this feels alot like the AI winter. Valuations will crash, a bunch of players will disappear, but we'll keep using the tech for boring things and eventually we'll have another breakthrough.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#14
post #9

Ai is currently a bubble. But that is just a short term phenomenon. Ultimately what AI currently is and what the trend-line indicates what AI will become will change the economy in ways that will dwarf the current bubble. But this is only if the trend-line keeps going, which is a likely possibility given the last couple of years. I think people are making the mistake that AI is a bubble and therefore AI is completely…

Yes, a bubble just means that it's over-valued and that at some point there will be a significant correction in stock values. It doesn't mean that the thing is inherently worthless.

A great example is the DotCom bubble. Wiped out a lot of capital but it really did transform the world.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#15
The problem is that people conflate the current wave of transformer based ANNs with AI (as a whole). AI certainly has the potential to disrupt employment of humans. Transformers as they exist today not so much.

AI's potential isn't defined by the potential of the current crop of transformers. However, many people seem to think otherwise and this will be incredibly damaging for AI as a whole once transformer tech investment all but dries out.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#16

> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?

If true I’d like to know who is doing this so I can have exactly nothing to do with them.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#17

> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?

Probably their googly-eyed vibe coder friend told them this and they just parroted it.

Right. The author is non-technical and said so up front.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#18

> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?

AI writes most of the code for most new YC companies, as of this year.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#19
A lot of the debate here swings between extremes. Claims like “AI writes most of the code now” are obviously exaggerated especially coming from a nontechnical author but acting like any use of AI is a red flag is just as unrealistic. Early stage teams do lean on LLMs for scaffolding, tests and boilerplate, but the hard engineering work is still human. Is there a bubble? Sure, valuations look frothy. But like the dotcom era, a correction doesn’t invalidate the underlying shift it just clears out the noise. The hype is inflated, the technology is real.
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