Live data from Hacker News

Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsight

karpathy.bearblog.dev

11–20 of 285 posts

Re: Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsight

#11
> Everything we do today might be scrutinized in great detail in the future because it will be "free".

s/"free"/stolen/

The bit about college courses for future prediction was just silly, I'm afraid: reminds me of how Conan Doyle has Sherlock not knowing Earth revolves around the Sun. Almost all serious study concerns itself with predicting, modelling and influence over the future behaviour of some system; the problem is only that people don't fucking listen to the predictions of experts. They aren't going to value refined, academic general-purpose futurology any more than they have in the past; it's not even a new area of study.

Re: Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsight

#13
#272, I got a B+! Neat.

It would be very interesting to see this applied year after year to see if people get better or worse over time in the accuracy of their judgments.

It would also be interesting to correlate accuracy to scores, but I kind of doubt that can be done. Between just expressing popular sentiment and the first to the post people getting more votes for the same comment than people who come later it probably wouldn’t be very useful data.

Re: Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsight

#14
I have never felt less confident in the future than I do in 2025... and it's such a stark contrast. I guess if you split things down the middle, AI probably continues to change the world in dramatic ways but not in the all or nothing way people expect.

A non trivial amount of people get laid off, likely due to a finanical crisis which is used as an excuse for companies scale up use of AI. Good chance the financial crisis was partly caused by AI companies, which ironically makes AI cheaper as infra is bought up on the cheap (so there is a consolidation, but the bountiful infra keeps things cheap). That results in increased usage (over a longer period of time). and even when the economy starts coming back the jobs numbers stay abismal.

Politics are divided into 2 main groups, those who are employed, and those who are retired. The retired group is VERY large, and has alot of power. They mostly care about entitlements. The employed age people focus on AI which is making the job market quite tough. There are 3 large political forces (but 2 parties). The Left, the Right, and the Tech Elite. The left and the right both hate AI, but the tech elite though a minority has outsized power in their tie breaker role. The age distributions would surprise most. Most older people are now on the left, and most younger people are split by gender. The right focuses on limiting entitlements, and the left focuses on growing them by taxing the tech elite. The right maintains power by not threatening the tech elite.

Unlike the 20th century America is a more focused global agenda. We're not policing everyone, just those core trading powers. We have not gone to war with China, China has not taken over Taiwan.

Physical robotics is becoming a pretty big thing, space travel is becoming cheaper. We have at least one robot on an astroid mining it. The yield is trivial, but we all thought it was neat.

Energy is much much greener, and you wouln't have guessed it... but it was the data centers that got us there. The Tech elite needed it quickly, and used the political connections to cut red tape and build really quickly.

Re: Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsight

#16

Notable how this is only possible because the website is a good "web citizen." It has urls that maintain their state over a decade. They contain a whole conversation. You don't have to log in to see anything. The value of old proper websites increases with our ability to process them.

Yes! See "Cool URIs Don't Change"^1 by Sir TBL himself.

1. https://www.w3.org/Provider/Style/URI

Re: Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsight

#17
post #12

I think the most fun thing is to go to: https://karpathy.ai/hncapsule/hall-of-fame.html And scroll down to the bottom.

It’s interesting, if you go down near the bottom you see some people with both A’s and D’s.

According to the ratings for example, one person both had extremely racist ideas but also made a couple of accurate points about how some tech concepts would evolve.

Re: Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsight

#20
post #14

I have never felt less confident in the future than I do in 2025... and it's such a stark contrast. I guess if you split things down the middle, AI probably continues to change the world in dramatic ways but not in the all or nothing way people expect. A non trivial amount of people get laid off, likely due to a finanical crisis which is used as an excuse for companies scale up use of AI. Good chance the financial cr…

We do not currently have the political apparatus in place to stop the dystopian nightmares depicted in movies and media. They were supposed to be cautionary tales. Maybe they still can be, but there are basically zero guardrails in non-progressive forms of government to prevent massive accumulations of power being wielded in ways most of the population disapproves of.
Post reply on HN