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Some hedge fund managers walk onto an Argentinian navy ship

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Re: Some hedge fund managers walk onto an Argentinian navy ship

#11
post #7
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This ain't no vulture fund; and we all know about Argentinian "diplomacy". This fund invested in Argentina, because it believed in its economy - it went long. Like many other funds who invest in US treasuries, German bunds, JGBs, etc. We all know the Argentinian government is no example for a well-run government, and this fund is taking a stance (i) against the mal-practice/mis-management of the Argentinian finances,…

No. Elliott capital does not work this way. Google them. They don't go long on anything. They buy debt from funds that did for pennies on the dollar when it doesn't look like that debt will be repaid. They then try to collect on it aggressively and turn a handsome profit in most cases. It's been a very successful strategy for them - that's how their founder is now a billionaire.

The message being: Governments, pay your debts.

Re: Some hedge fund managers walk onto an Argentinian navy ship

#12
post #2

A vulture fund doing its things. ARA Libertad is a school vessel and is used for diplomacy. I doubt they can do something useful with this

For those not familiar with the term "Vulture Fund", there is some background at the following links:

Cashing in on the crash http://www.economist.com/node/9687782

Vulture funds – how do they work? http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2011/nov/15/vul...

Re: Some hedge fund managers walk onto an Argentinian navy ship

#13
post #11
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. Elliott capital does not work this way. Google them. They don't go long on anything. They buy debt from funds that did for pennies on the dollar when it doesn't look like that debt will be repaid. They then try to collect on it aggressively and turn a handsome profit in most cases. It's been a very successful strategy for them - that's how their founder is now a billionaire.

The message being: Governments, pay your debts.

Argentina reestructured its debts and it was a successful early 2000s campaign. These funds make money buying debt for pennies. They are similar in some way to patent trolls.

Not read this message as a support to the Argentinian government. What Argentina did with its debt is a case study.

Re: Some hedge fund managers walk onto an Argentinian navy ship

#14
post #5
post #2

A vulture fund doing its things. ARA Libertad is a school vessel and is used for diplomacy. I doubt they can do something useful with this

This ain't no vulture fund; and we all know about Argentinian "diplomacy". This fund invested in Argentina, because it believed in its economy - it went long. Like many other funds who invest in US treasuries, German bunds, JGBs, etc. We all know the Argentinian government is no example for a well-run government, and this fund is taking a stance (i) against the mal-practice/mis-management of the Argentinian finances,…

For private borrowers who can’t make their payments and probably never will, there is bankruptcy law, which lays out a orderly procedure where the borrower asks for relief, the lenders make their claims, and a judge decides who ends up with how much. It’s not a perfect system by any means, but anyone who loans money understands the risk that the borrower will declare bankruptcy, and the credit markets still function.

For sovereign countries, unfortunately, there is no such procedure. If a government borrows money on the international credit market, its taxpayers can be on the hook for perpetuity. I would like to see those taxpayers have at least as much protection as private-sector borrowers—especially when the taxpayers of a democratic government are on the hook for the debts of its authoritarian or corrupt predecessors.

Re: Some hedge fund managers walk onto an Argentinian navy ship

#15
post #10
post #4

Link bait title - the ship was seized in Ghana by a court-ordered injunction. Highly unlikely that the investors walked on the boat. Nevertheless, really interesting. In general, we expect a debt holder to try to seize assets after the loan defaults. But I've never heard of a private investment group going after a government. Here is the response from the Argentine government: The vulture funds have crossed a new lim…

The Argentine government is getting desperate at the moment. They've started fiddling their inflation figures, [1] and they've had to take steps to stop people converting all their savings into dollars. On top of that, they've added in some populist sabre rattling over the Falklands to try and distract everyone. [1] http://www.rssenews.org.uk/2012/02/economist-magazine-drops-...

Not exactly, it's long, but here I go...

Malvinas/Falklands has always been a national claim, that has been brought to every possible international forum, for decades before the war in 1982, and of course, also after the war... So, that's not news.

The current overall economic situation is not as terrible as it may seem from outside. The main problem is that because of the high inflation, people try to have their savings in other currencies, but the government put restrictions on the amount of foreign money that can be bought. Sadly, tax evasion is commonplace here, so, it's hard to prove the origin of the money, and thus making it an impediment to buy US dollars.

But the overall situation is very complex. I have always said that the main problem in Argentina is that culturally, Argentine businessmen always try to make money selling a few products at a high price, instead of selling a lot of products at smaller prices (scale economy). And there's no focus on trying to change that mentality. That makes the local industry totally noncompetitive, and thus, the government has to rely in protectionist policies to prevent importers from flooding the local market with chinese products, that would simply destroy the local jobs (it has happened before, in the '80s, then again in the '90s).

As an example, you have some plain stupid policies, like having the electronics factories in the furthest possible place (Tierra del Fuego, the island just at the end of the continent!), far away from the consumption centers, making the prices go up as they have to move the manufacturing parts from Buenos Aires, to Tierra del Fuego, and then, the manufactured goods back to Tierra del Fuego/Cordoba. That's 3100 miles by road!

This kind of policies render the commendable idea of helping the local industry develop, totally useless because those industries will never be competitive.

On the other hand, historically, the main source of wealth in this country has always being agriculture. But sadly, since the 1800's, almost 80% of the country has been in the hands of a few families. Currently, 2000 families own almost all of the fields. And sadly, in the last 10 years, they stopped producing a lot of products (wheat, fruits, livestock), replacing most of the production with soybeans. That resulted in a huge increase in prices, something unthinkable in a food-producing country like this.

That, added to the fact that historically those families operate usually operate this way: They sell the products through a shell company in some tax heaven country, thus declaring much lower earnings here (evading local taxes). Of course, this kind of behavior is possible because of the ever-existing corruption. Anyways, the money that they do bring here, is usually moved anyway to offshore bank accounts (generally luxemburg, switzerland or uruguay). Capital flight then becomes a common practice.

A few years ago, the government paid its debt to the IMF, and because it would have to eventually pay most of the debt to the remaining creditors, and its debt is adjusted by the inflation index they declare, they started forging that index. They did it by printing money, used to internal payments to government employees. Internally, as salaries were raised anually at the same level of inflation, it didn't change much to the average people. But in the long run, it affects business, as companies stop trusting the country, so they stop investing here.

As the government had to afford some payments this year to finally complete payments from the 2001 crisis (Boden 2012), they tried to stop this capital flight, but instead of doing it gradually, they did it in a shockingly fast way.

That generated a lot of social discontent in the middle classes. And of course, people are just sick high levels of the corruption and impunity. Some judges, just act as lackeys of the government, absolving government employees involved in public corruption scandals, even when there's a lot of evidence to make them go to prison.

And finally, Media conglomerates that have an enormous amount of power are fighting its own war against the government, that again, even when they are trying to implement an understandable law to replace one from the time of the last dictatorship, the small amount of time given to split the "monopolies", escalated everything.

Interestingly, even with all of this, the overall economic situation is not that bad, people still have their jobs, there are not massive layouts as seen in Europe, salaries grow at the same rate as inflation, compensating it. People is still consuming and is expected that in 2013 the economy is growing more, as Brazil gets better.

But the manner of this government is what makes people sick. They have a very authoritarian way of imposing their agenda. It's like if for them, the end justifies the means. Other parties, even when they could share some of the objectives, prefer other ways to do things, but the opposition is totally fragmented, so the officialism has all the way clear to act as they please.

-

To summarize:

- Noncompetitive industry.

- Wrong way of thinking about business (gain by product instead of by scale).

- Unpatriotic landowners, masters in tax evasion

- Widespread corruption.

- Plain Stupid Policies

- Flawed legal system, with corrupted judges

Makes a once-great country, a languishing country that every time it seems to be about to stand again, it falls to the floor and ignites... just to start from scratch again, like a recurring fenix.

Hope it helps to understand us a little bit more :)

As an anecdote, after the 2001 crisis, this country was literally broke, there were no reserves, no money left, while, at the same time, the IMF was trying to prove some 'new theories' and Argentina became the perfect experiment. After rejecting a debt-exchange, default was the only option.

That's where this kind of vulture funds get in the picture. Their modus operandi is simple: buy debt for cents (in this case, defaulted bonds), knowing that a large country like Argentina, very rich in natural resources would eventually recover, and then try to get paid the full price. Good luck with that.

Re: Some hedge fund managers walk onto an Argentinian navy ship

#16
post #13
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The message being: Governments, pay your debts.

Argentina reestructured its debts and it was a successful early 2000s campaign. These funds make money buying debt for pennies. They are similar in some way to patent trolls. Not read this message as a support to the Argentinian government. What Argentina did with its debt is a case study.

Argentina reestructured its debts

Apparently, not all of it.

Re: Some hedge fund managers walk onto an Argentinian navy ship

#17
post #2

A vulture fund doing its things. ARA Libertad is a school vessel and is used for diplomacy. I doubt they can do something useful with this

For those not familiar with the term "Vulture Fund", there is some background at the following links: Cashing in on the crash http://www.economist.com/node/9687782 Vulture funds – how do they work? http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2011/nov/15/vul...

I'm having a bit of trouble understating the problem with vulture firms.

Is it the fact that they bought a lot of risky debt at low prices? That is how risk works; I feel like objections along these lines are focusing on specific cases where the vultures got lucky and are ignoring the big picture.

Is it the fact that they are demanding money out of bankrupt countries? This seems odd to me; wouldn't the original debtors want repayment too?

The second article there mentions vultures discouraging real investment in the countries. This seems like a serious issue but I don't understand how vultures specifically would have that effect.

Re: Some hedge fund managers walk onto an Argentinian navy ship

#18
post #11
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. Elliott capital does not work this way. Google them. They don't go long on anything. They buy debt from funds that did for pennies on the dollar when it doesn't look like that debt will be repaid. They then try to collect on it aggressively and turn a handsome profit in most cases. It's been a very successful strategy for them - that's how their founder is now a billionaire.

The message being: Governments, pay your debts.

Maybe. I'm sure it's a calculated risk, but you might want to be careful who you cross when you deal with sovereign nations and seizing their assets. Private lenders don't have standing armies, after all.

Re: Some hedge fund managers walk onto an Argentinian navy ship

#19
Aside: There seems to be a strange (one-way) attraction between creditors and sailing ships these days. Another example:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sedov

"Sedov has regularly been targeted by unpaid creditors of the Russian Federation such as Nissim Gaon (of now defunct Swiss group NOGA, an anagram of Gaon) and also by French holders of defaulted Russian bonds; in 2002 Sedov was forced to precipitously and unexpectedly leave Marseilles in the dead of night[1] to avoid being served a writ by AFPER (French association of holders of Russian Empire bonds) the following morning.

For over a year French holders of defaulted Russian bonds have been warning they were going to reorganize and export their claim to Anglo-Saxon jurisdictions, more friendly to private citizens than the French."

Re: Some hedge fund managers walk onto an Argentinian navy ship

#20
post #15
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Argentine government is getting desperate at the moment. They've started fiddling their inflation figures, [1] and they've had to take steps to stop people converting all their savings into dollars. On top of that, they've added in some populist sabre rattling over the Falklands to try and distract everyone. [1] http://www.rssenews.org.uk/2012/02/economist-magazine-drops-...

Not exactly, it's long, but here I go... Malvinas/Falklands has always been a national claim, that has been brought to every possible international forum, for decades before the war in 1982, and of course, also after the war... So, that's not news. The current overall economic situation is not as terrible as it may seem from outside. The main problem is that because of the high inflation, people try to have their sav…

Thanks for such an informative reply. I hope one day Argentina gets a government worthy of them :-)

I also hope to go fishing in Patagonia one day, but that's another story...

As an aside, are those wealthy families that own all the land of Spanish or Welsh origin? I've heard there are a lot of Welsh immigants in Argentina.

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