11–20 of 85 posts
Ok, this seems like a good post. At the end of the day, what do I, as a single investor, do? I'm 50 years old, 2 kids in college, I have a $300,000 mortgage on a house presently worth $1M. I have $300,000 cash and an open eTrade account. What do I do with the cash? A) keep it as cash B) Pay off the mortgage C) Buy some QQQ D) Buy some T-notes E) there is no E. I am a simple man. Let's start with a simple solution.
Posts like this make me want to hurry up and buy a farm
I've been watching my investment accounts, particularly the TSLA fraction, and see-sawing between "This has got to collapse soon, I should..." and "You cannot time the market, idiot".
I'm dissatisfied with the inaction, but I can't come up with a coherent theory about how I should act... Bleah.
Ok, this seems like a good post. At the end of the day, what do I, as a single investor, do? I'm 50 years old, 2 kids in college, I have a $300,000 mortgage on a house presently worth $1M. I have $300,000 cash and an open eTrade account. What do I do with the cash? A) keep it as cash B) Pay off the mortgage C) Buy some QQQ D) Buy some T-notes E) there is no E. I am a simple man. Let's start with a simple solution.
maybe learn about options. do some practice trading. Theory is one thing, patience and common sense are other things. Above all be very, very careful, but have fun. The practice part is important but when you are comfortable, nibble a little with small amounts.
(Note: I ended up breaking my rule by continuing to trade after losing $5000, but then did great in the markets anyway in the long run LOL)
Ok, this seems like a good post. At the end of the day, what do I, as a single investor, do? I'm 50 years old, 2 kids in college, I have a $300,000 mortgage on a house presently worth $1M. I have $300,000 cash and an open eTrade account. What do I do with the cash? A) keep it as cash B) Pay off the mortgage C) Buy some QQQ D) Buy some T-notes E) there is no E. I am a simple man. Let's start with a simple solution.
Trading yourself is just not worth it. You'll lose money long-term. An exception here is if you want to hold shares of a company long-term as a form of investment.
If your mortgage is a fixed rate at a reasonable interest, then keep it. If there's a high inflation episode, you'll be able to benefit from it.
Ok, this seems like a good post. At the end of the day, what do I, as a single investor, do? I'm 50 years old, 2 kids in college, I have a $300,000 mortgage on a house presently worth $1M. I have $300,000 cash and an open eTrade account. What do I do with the cash? A) keep it as cash B) Pay off the mortgage C) Buy some QQQ D) Buy some T-notes E) there is no E. I am a simple man. Let's start with a simple solution.
If cash remaining -> if mortgage rate >4% pay down mortgage (locking in 4%+ yield). If you want to average 50% towards mortgage 50% VOO (S&P Index fund)
Deeper post ->https://monetarymusings.substack.com/p/how-to-not-blow-up-wh...
> On this basis, global material prosperity has grown by 25% since 2004, which is nowhere near claimed “growth” of 96% in real GDP over that period. Moreover, the 25% rise in aggregate prosperity has been matched by the rise in population numbers over those twenty years. This assumes that the GDP growth and the material prosperity are in a simple linear relation. I don't think this makes sense. A small solar panel th…
But it only takes a few examples counter to what a public service should do to show that GDP reliance creates anti-patterns. e.g. rising healthcare costs is good for the GDP while universal healthcare is bad.
> On this basis, global material prosperity has grown by 25% since 2004, which is nowhere near claimed “growth” of 96% in real GDP over that period. Moreover, the 25% rise in aggregate prosperity has been matched by the rise in population numbers over those twenty years. This assumes that the GDP growth and the material prosperity are in a simple linear relation. I don't think this makes sense. A small solar panel th…
Yeah, I felt that this was the weakest point of the argument presented.
I do like calling out the absurdity of "wealth" in various assets though, as well as the notion that we need to map this "wealth" back ultimately to energy (which makes sense, as we need energy for basically everything).
Ok, this seems like a good post. At the end of the day, what do I, as a single investor, do? I'm 50 years old, 2 kids in college, I have a $300,000 mortgage on a house presently worth $1M. I have $300,000 cash and an open eTrade account. What do I do with the cash? A) keep it as cash B) Pay off the mortgage C) Buy some QQQ D) Buy some T-notes E) there is no E. I am a simple man. Let's start with a simple solution.
Why is this hard? Calculate the expected value of each option, do a risk analysis, apply risk factor (based on your own tolerance), biggest number wins.
All these will influence your EV.
Complete and utter horseshit