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TPUs vs. GPUs and why Google is positioned to win AI race in the long term

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Re: TPUs vs. GPUs and why Google is positioned to win AI race in the long term

#12
post #2

A question I don't see addressed in all these articles: what prevents Nvidia from doing the same thing and iterating on their more general-purpose GPU towards a more focused TPU-like chip as well, if that turns out to be what the market really wants.

For users buying H200s for AI workloads, the "ASIC" tensor cores deliver the overwhelming bulk of performance. So they already do this, and have been since Volta in 2017.

To put it into perspective, the tensor cores deliver about 2,000 TFLOPs of FP8, and half that for FP16, and this is all tensor FMA/MAC (comprising the bulk of compute for AI workloads). The CUDA cores -- the rest of the GPU -- deliver more in the 70 TFLOP range.

So if data centres are buying nvidia hardware for AI, they already are buying focused TPU chips that almost incidentally have some other hardware that can do some other stuff.

I mean, GPUs still have a lot of non-tensor general uses in the sciences, finance, etc, and TPUs don't touch that, but yes a lot of nvidia GPUs are being sold as a focused TPU-like chip.

Re: TPUs vs. GPUs and why Google is positioned to win AI race in the long term

#13
post #4

Right because people would love to get locked into another even more expensive platform.

That's mentioned in the article, but is the lock-in really that big? In some cases, it's as easy as changing the backend of your high-level ML library.

Re: TPUs vs. GPUs and why Google is positioned to win AI race in the long term

#14
In my 20+ years of following NVIDIA, I have learned to never bet against them long-term. I actually do not know exactly why they continually win, but they do. The main issue they have a 3-4 year gap between wanting a new design pivot and realizing it (silicon has a long "pipeline"), it can seem that they may be missing a new trend or swerve in the demands of the market, it is often simply because there is this delay.

Re: TPUs vs. GPUs and why Google is positioned to win AI race in the long term

#17
How high are the chances that as soon as China produces their own competitive TPU/GPU, they'll invade Taiwan in order to starve the West in regards to processing power, while at the same time getting an exclusive grip on the Taiwanese Fabs?

Re: TPUs vs. GPUs and why Google is positioned to win AI race in the long term

#18
post #2

A question I don't see addressed in all these articles: what prevents Nvidia from doing the same thing and iterating on their more general-purpose GPU towards a more focused TPU-like chip as well, if that turns out to be what the market really wants.

That's pretty much what they've been doing incrementally with the data center line of GPUs versus GeForce since 2017. Currently, the data center GPUs now have up to 6 times the performance at matrix math of the GeForce chips and much more memory. Nvidia has managed to stay one tape out away from addressing any competitors so far.

The real challenge is getting the TPU to do more general purpose computation. But that doesn't make for as good a story. And the point about Google arbitrarily raising the prices as soon as they think they have the upper hand is good old fashioned capitalism in action.

Re: TPUs vs. GPUs and why Google is positioned to win AI race in the long term

#20
post #2

A question I don't see addressed in all these articles: what prevents Nvidia from doing the same thing and iterating on their more general-purpose GPU towards a more focused TPU-like chip as well, if that turns out to be what the market really wants.

They will, I'm sure.

The big difference is that Google is both the chip designer *and* the AI company. So they get both sets of profits.

Both Google and Nvidia contract TSMC for chips. Then Nvidia sells them at a huge profit. Then OpenAI (for example) buys them at that inflated rate and them puts them into production.

So while Nvidia is "selling shovels", Google is making their own shovels and has their own mines.

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