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US issues security NOTAM for Venezuelan airspace

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Re: US issues security NOTAM for Venezuelan airspace

#11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He means the opposite, Trump threatening Venezuela because he needs a distraction from his presence in the Epstein files.

Do you legit believe he'd release them if there's anything even remotely controversial?

He hasn't released them yet though, has he? And I don't think it's likely they ever will be. Also it's already been mentioned that 1000 FBI agents are scrubbing them of anything incriminating, so even if they are, they'll likely be almost uselessly redacted.

Re: US issues security NOTAM for Venezuelan airspace

#12

Do we have another war in post-WWII history where a credible theory for its genesis is a leader trying to distract from a scandal? Closest I can come to is the Falklands War.

If you don’t mind could you briefly summarise your view on the Falklands War? Was it a distraction for UK or Argentinian leadership?

Re: US issues security NOTAM for Venezuelan airspace

#13
post #3

Do we have another war in post-WWII history where a credible theory for its genesis is a leader trying to distract from a scandal? Closest I can come to is the Falklands War.

Depends on how you define "war", but the initial invasion of Crimea by Russia in 2014 and Israel's strikes on Iran this year may count - both were closely aligned to rising domestic pressure on the leaders at the time.

It is a far stretch to call annexation/reunification (pick whichever you like) an invasion. There was no fighting and it went almost with no violence. There was a swift independence referendum followed by a decree to join Russian Federation. Majority of Crimean population voted in favor, as later confirmed by independent gallups. Anyone thinks that Crimeans want to rejoin Ukraine is delusional.

Re: US issues security NOTAM for Venezuelan airspace

#14

Do we have another war in post-WWII history where a credible theory for its genesis is a leader trying to distract from a scandal? Closest I can come to is the Falklands War.

If you don’t mind could you briefly summarise your view on the Falklands War? Was it a distraction for UK or Argentinian leadership?

> Was it a distraction for UK or Argentinian leadership?

"In the period leading up to the war—and, in particular following the transfer of power between the military dictators General Jorge Rafael Videla and General Roberto Eduardo Viola late in March 1981—Argentina had been in the midst of devastating economic stagnation and large-scale civil unrest against the National Reorganisation Process, the military junta that had been governing the country since 1976.

In December 1981 there was a further change in the Argentine military regime, bringing to office a new junta headed by General Leopoldo Galtieri (acting president), Air Brigadier Basilio Lami Dozo and Admiral Jorge Anaya. Anaya was the main architect and supporter of a military solution for the long-standing claim over the islands, expecting that the United Kingdom would never respond militarily."

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falklands_War#Prelude

Re: US issues security NOTAM for Venezuelan airspace

#15
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on how you define "war", but the initial invasion of Crimea by Russia in 2014 and Israel's strikes on Iran this year may count - both were closely aligned to rising domestic pressure on the leaders at the time.

It is a far stretch to call annexation/reunification (pick whichever you like) an invasion. There was no fighting and it went almost with no violence. There was a swift independence referendum followed by a decree to join Russian Federation. Majority of Crimean population voted in favor, as later confirmed by independent gallups. Anyone thinks that Crimeans want to rejoin Ukraine is delusional.

> stretch to call annexation/reunification (pick whichever you like) an invasion. There was no fighting

Invasion is occupation. Fighting isn't a pre-requisite. Entire colonies were gained in the age of empire through gunboat diplomacy [1]. We even extend the metaphor to invasive species.

> Majority of Crimean population voted in favor

Correct.

> Anyone thinks that Crimeans want to rejoin Ukraine is delusional

With present tense, unknown.

More generally, Xinjiang would vote for independence from China, J&K from India and Siberia from Russia [1]. Local self-determination isn't a maximalist proxy advocated for by anyone but anarchists.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gunboat_diplomacy#Notable_exam...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberian_Republic

Re: US issues security NOTAM for Venezuelan airspace

#16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you legit believe he'd release them if there's anything even remotely controversial?

He hasn't released them yet though, has he? And I don't think it's likely they ever will be. Also it's already been mentioned that 1000 FBI agents are scrubbing them of anything incriminating, so even if they are, they'll likely be almost uselessly redacted.

So then it isn't much of a distraction

Re: US issues security NOTAM for Venezuelan airspace

#17

Do we have another war in post-WWII history where a credible theory for its genesis is a leader trying to distract from a scandal? Closest I can come to is the Falklands War.

Probably every war ... It worked so well we dont know what the scandal was.

Re: US issues security NOTAM for Venezuelan airspace

#18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He hasn't released them yet though, has he? And I don't think it's likely they ever will be. Also it's already been mentioned that 1000 FBI agents are scrubbing them of anything incriminating, so even if they are, they'll likely be almost uselessly redacted.

So then it isn't much of a distraction

> then it isn't much of a distraction

People were talking about it. Now we’re talking about Venezuela, too. That’s how distractions work.

Re: US issues security NOTAM for Venezuelan airspace

#19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you don’t mind could you briefly summarise your view on the Falklands War? Was it a distraction for UK or Argentinian leadership?

> Was it a distraction for UK or Argentinian leadership? "In the period leading up to the war—and, in particular following the transfer of power between the military dictators General Jorge Rafael Videla and General Roberto Eduardo Viola late in March 1981—Argentina had been in the midst of devastating economic stagnation and large-scale civil unrest against the National Reorganisation Process, the military junta tha…

Thanks! I probably should have read the damn wiki haha.

Re: US issues security NOTAM for Venezuelan airspace

#20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a far stretch to call annexation/reunification (pick whichever you like) an invasion. There was no fighting and it went almost with no violence. There was a swift independence referendum followed by a decree to join Russian Federation. Majority of Crimean population voted in favor, as later confirmed by independent gallups. Anyone thinks that Crimeans want to rejoin Ukraine is delusional.

> stretch to call annexation/reunification (pick whichever you like) an invasion. There was no fighting Invasion is occupation. Fighting isn't a pre-requisite. Entire colonies were gained in the age of empire through gunboat diplomacy [1]. We even extend the metaphor to invasive species. > Majority of Crimean population voted in favor Correct. > Anyone thinks that Crimeans want to rejoin Ukraine is delusional With pr…

Why stop with these examples though? By the same rhetoric, Kosovo, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, Finnish Lapland, Venice, Eastern Germany, Quebec, Hawaii and Texas are all occupied either by force or gunboat diplomacy.
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