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Google tells employees it must double capacity every 6 months to meet AI demand

arstechnica.com

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Re: Google tells employees it must double capacity every 6 months to meet AI demand

#11

Post by whynotmaybe »

bgwalter wrote: post #6

What "AI"? The current search situation is: - The forced "AI" summary is wrong. - If you click on "Google AI", it gives a new summary that contradicts the initial one. - If you check Wikipedia or the top real search result, they contradict both the above. Should the board intervene and fire Pichai? Does the board know something we don't, e.g., are there massive surveillance contracts with the NSA and the "AI" demand…

I'm wondering whether they're seeing "AI" as the next big thing for mass consumer markets.

IMHO, there are few "big thing" for mass consumer markets and we haven't had one recently.

In chronological order, I'd put PC (90's), internet and online shopping (2000's), smart phones and 'social' media (2010's) and that's it.

I consider something reached "mass consumer market" when a 75 years old grandma considers it normal.

Yes there are many new stuff (online services around phones, smart watches, assistant like Alexa) but nothing that's used by almost everyone.

Re: Google tells employees it must double capacity every 6 months to meet AI demand

#12

Post by quickthrowman »

austin-cheney wrote: post #3

What happens when this bubble pops? I am trying to avoid any time or financial investment in AI as I look around the corner. I am also looking back at the last big bubble. I got my first house for $129k at 2800sqft when the housing bubble popped. There were just so many empty houses available. So now I am wondering what will be available once the AI investment implodes. I am thinking about computer hardware, availabl…

If it collapses, lenders will own (in general) giant tip-up buildings with two separate substations tied to two different utility circuits, a shitload of generators and UPSes, a shitload of chillers and cooling towers, and miles of cable tray. Plus whatever computing hardware is inside.

I assume the excess electrical and HVAC gear would be stripped out and sold before converting the tip-up building into another yet another Amazon distribution center.

It’s not particularly useful infrastructure, unlike all of the dark fiber laid during the dotcom boom.

Re: Google tells employees it must double capacity every 6 months to meet AI demand

#13

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

whynotmaybe wrote: post #11
bgwalter wrote: post #6

What "AI"? The current search situation is: - The forced "AI" summary is wrong. - If you click on "Google AI", it gives a new summary that contradicts the initial one. - If you check Wikipedia or the top real search result, they contradict both the above. Should the board intervene and fire Pichai? Does the board know something we don't, e.g., are there massive surveillance contracts with the NSA and the "AI" demand…

I'm wondering whether they're seeing "AI" as the next big thing for mass consumer markets. IMHO, there are few "big thing" for mass consumer markets and we haven't had one recently. In chronological order, I'd put PC (90's), internet and online shopping (2000's), smart phones and 'social' media (2010's) and that's it. I consider something reached "mass consumer market" when a 75 years old grandma considers it normal.…

I know 75 year old grandmas who consider ChatGPT normal and use it all the time. I bet that number gets even higher if you count the people trusting Google AI summaries, although that’s more dubious since they didn’t opt in.

Re: Google tells employees it must double capacity every 6 months to meet AI demand

#14

Post by reisse »

whynotmaybe wrote: post #11
bgwalter wrote: post #6

What "AI"? The current search situation is: - The forced "AI" summary is wrong. - If you click on "Google AI", it gives a new summary that contradicts the initial one. - If you check Wikipedia or the top real search result, they contradict both the above. Should the board intervene and fire Pichai? Does the board know something we don't, e.g., are there massive surveillance contracts with the NSA and the "AI" demand…

I'm wondering whether they're seeing "AI" as the next big thing for mass consumer markets. IMHO, there are few "big thing" for mass consumer markets and we haven't had one recently. In chronological order, I'd put PC (90's), internet and online shopping (2000's), smart phones and 'social' media (2010's) and that's it. I consider something reached "mass consumer market" when a 75 years old grandma considers it normal.…

I strongly believe it is _the_ next big thing.

The easiest way to tell why is that every high schooler or university student is using LLMs (whether it is a good thing or not is irrelevant). These people will go to the job market in a few years and carry the habit.

Re: Google tells employees it must double capacity every 6 months to meet AI demand

#15

Post by gizmo686 »

concinds wrote: post #7
austin-cheney wrote: post #3

What happens when this bubble pops? I am trying to avoid any time or financial investment in AI as I look around the corner. I am also looking back at the last big bubble. I got my first house for $129k at 2800sqft when the housing bubble popped. There were just so many empty houses available. So now I am wondering what will be available once the AI investment implodes. I am thinking about computer hardware, availabl…

They're trying to increase their "compute capacity" over 5 years but aiming for the same cost and energy consumption. It's a drive for some buildout combined with hardware/algorithm efficiency improvements. They're not trying to build double the data centers every 6 months. But Ars likes the "economic collapse" narrative because I guess their journalist spends too much time on social media. If a recession comes it li…

The quoted goal is a 1000x increse over 5 years. That works out to an average of 1.9953x increase every 6 months.

Re: Google tells employees it must double capacity every 6 months to meet AI demand

#16

Post by kylecazar »

Tenoke wrote: post #10
andy99 wrote: post #5

Demand is internal and speculative. It’s not market driven and in some cases (AI features in existing products) is counter to clear market signals.

How is it internal or speculative? Chatgpt is the 5th most poplar website. Gemini is 30th but they have increasing demand and a ton of it isn't on the gemini main site. And that isn't their only external demand of coruse.

I think they are referring to the fact that Google has shimmied AI into every one of their products, thus demand surge is the byproduct of decisions made internally. They are themselves electing to send billions of calls daily to their models.

As opposed to external demand, where vastly more compute is needed just to keep up with users torching through Gemini tokens.

Here is the relevant part of the article:

"It’s unclear how much of this “demand” Google mentioned represents organic user interest in AI capabilities versus the company integrating AI features into existing services like Search, Gmail, and Workspace."

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