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Thanks for sharing! It's pretty rare to see a balanced take from Ed Zitron. > I also cannot reconcile these numbers with the reporting that OpenAI will have a cash burn of $9 billion in CY2025. On inference alone, OpenAI has already spent $8.67 billion through Q3 CY2025. This is insane.
How high are OpenAI's compute costs? Possibly a lot higher than we thought
https://www.ft.com/content/fce77ba4-6231-4920-9e99-693a6c38e...
NVIDIA earnings call is November 19th brb buying puts
Nvidia is getting all the money though. It’s not their problem that people want to burn cash in their direction in order to build products that only lose money. At least it’s not their problem right now…
Sure, Nvidia is making crazy money right now, but what's going to happen to all those deals when the market blinks and some of those lesser players start falling over?
[0]: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/ai-investment-is-sta...
the oldheads are snickering at dotcom 2.0 from behind their gray beards.
Compute is a hard resource, inextricably linked to money, time, and energy.
The math doesn't work in Sam's favor, no matter how much smoke he blows up your ass.
It's going to be interesting when all these GPUs are repurposed to mine Bitcoin, and people try to forget falling for the hysteria that somehow you can arrive at AGI from a glorified markov bot.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nvidia is getting all the money though. It’s not their problem that people want to burn cash in their direction in order to build products that only lose money. At least it’s not their problem right now…
The problem is that all the AI companies have been getting incredibly intertwined, see [0] for example. Nvidia isn't just selling chips - it is also actively investing in its own customers in order to drive up demand. This is giving us neat headlines like "NVIDIA intends to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI as the new NVIDIA systems are deployed". The Coreweave deal is even worse: Nvidia is investing in Coreweave,…
I honestly think it's a great model for incentive alignment and not that sketchy on the surface. For the manufacturer, it's guaranteed revenue with upside convexity. For the startup, it's better terms and priority from the manufacturers since they have a stake in your success.
the oldheads are snickering at dotcom 2.0 from behind their gray beards.
And slowly building up their shorts and keeping cash on the sidelines to short harder when it finally all comes crashing down.
the oldheads are snickering at dotcom 2.0 from behind their gray beards.
Bitcoin miners have also been sitting on the sidelines waiting for this too. Compute is a hard resource, inextricably linked to money, time, and energy. The math doesn't work in Sam's favor, no matter how much smoke he blows up your ass. It's going to be interesting when all these GPUs are repurposed to mine Bitcoin, and people try to forget falling for the hysteria that somehow you can arrive at AGI from a glorified…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
And slowly building up their shorts and keeping cash on the sidelines to short harder when it finally all comes crashing down.
The problem with shorts is that bubbles can expand well beyond rationality. Cash or bonds is what I am doing.
How can have this had so little votes and comments?