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Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

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Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#11

Post by abcd_f »

ambicapter wrote: post #8
abcd_f wrote: post #5

The market will correct before mid-terms next year. This is almost a certainty. By how much and when exactly - now, that's where the shorting profits are. PS. Burry infamously made several more bets after the "big short", bets that misfired. That is, his record is far from being 100% right.

What makes it an (almost) certainty?

Political volatility and the dirty nasty hustle on the Trump/republicans' part that will precede the mid-terms. Combined with the general state of bizarre market bonanza of the past few months. It's a powder keg just waiting for a match.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#12

Post by JKCalhoun »

ambicapter wrote: post #8
abcd_f wrote: post #5

The market will correct before mid-terms next year. This is almost a certainty. By how much and when exactly - now, that's where the shorting profits are. PS. Burry infamously made several more bets after the "big short", bets that misfired. That is, his record is far from being 100% right.

What makes it an (almost) certainty?

Long overdue? Fairly constant stream of bad news in other sectors of the economy?

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#16

Post by Havoc »

bgirard wrote: post #7
dh2022 wrote: post #3

Thanks for sharing. Michael Bury also shorted S&P 500 in Sep 2023 and closed his position in Nov 2023 for a nice payoff… he seems to know what he is doing.

I'm legitimately curious what his overall performance is. Are those just cherry picked trades?

His wins were quite big so I’d imagine he’s doing really well overall

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#18

Post by piltdownman »

prodigycorp wrote: post #4

Palantir's valuation is far more egregious than Nvidia's. Palantir is Becky (IBM) with the good hair.

You're betting against a middle-east Marshall Plan and AIPAC lobbyists vs. a company that just set up its AI industrial Hub in Europe and has some serious compute-engine hosting cost sticker-shock incoming.

As far as I can see, shorting Thiel is shorting Israel at the moment. Don't do it while Trump is in Cabinet and pressuring Tel Aviv to pardon Bibi.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#19

Post by fragmede »

ambicapter wrote: post #8
abcd_f wrote: post #5

The market will correct before mid-terms next year. This is almost a certainty. By how much and when exactly - now, that's where the shorting profits are. PS. Burry infamously made several more bets after the "big short", bets that misfired. That is, his record is far from being 100% right.

What makes it an (almost) certainty?

Reminder that economist have predicted 9 of the past 7 recessions.

General handwavy statements like "there's a bubble" aren't worth paying attention to. Ones with specific timelines attached to it (like the one above, or the article we're commenting on), are worth listening to a bit more, but unless they have the funds to back it up (like Michael Burry has put down here), it's still hot air.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#20

Post by selim17 »

lordnacho wrote: post #9

I'm not sure the bet is as big as it seems from the headline. When you buy options, you pay a fixed premium to get the right to buy/sell a very large value of shares, called the notional. But the notional is not what you are losing if it goes wrong, you lose the premium. The premium can be quite a small number compared to the notional.

You can check here: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649339/000164933925... Is this like what you say?
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