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Microsoft seemingly just revealed that OpenAI lost $11.5B last quarter

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Re: Microsoft seemingly just revealed that OpenAI lost $11.5B last quarter

#11

Their revenue in the entire first half per the article was $4.3B, even if we assume it was backloaded in Q2 that’s a -500% profit margin. I’m very excited to review their S-1. Like, for every dollar you give them they spend $5 to deliver the product. They’re selling $10 bills for $2. They seem to have taken the joke about making up losses with scale pretty seriously.

What Theo claims on YouTube is that each model they make is profitable over its lifetime and the weird numbers for the company are because they keep training more models, having to pay up front to buy a bunch of future profit each time basically

The problem is that OpenAI will have to keep doing this basically indefinitely, as otherwise open-source commodity models will catch up with them and offer an equivalent product at a much lower cost. If the company is reliant on having to keep paying more than it's making on its current model to train new models, I don't see how it can ever become a sustainable business.

Re: Microsoft seemingly just revealed that OpenAI lost $11.5B last quarter

#12

Their revenue in the entire first half per the article was $4.3B, even if we assume it was backloaded in Q2 that’s a -500% profit margin. I’m very excited to review their S-1. Like, for every dollar you give them they spend $5 to deliver the product. They’re selling $10 bills for $2. They seem to have taken the joke about making up losses with scale pretty seriously.

What Theo claims on YouTube is that each model they make is profitable over its lifetime and the weird numbers for the company are because they keep training more models, having to pay up front to buy a bunch of future profit each time basically

I would think that logic only works if opensource models like llama don't catch up? In other words the models don't become a commodity.

Re: Microsoft seemingly just revealed that OpenAI lost $11.5B last quarter

#13

Their revenue in the entire first half per the article was $4.3B, even if we assume it was backloaded in Q2 that’s a -500% profit margin. I’m very excited to review their S-1. Like, for every dollar you give them they spend $5 to deliver the product. They’re selling $10 bills for $2. They seem to have taken the joke about making up losses with scale pretty seriously.

> Like, for every dollar you give them they spend $5 to deliver the product.

Well, it would be useful before concluding this to see a breakdown between OpEx, CapEx, and R&D.

Re: Microsoft seemingly just revealed that OpenAI lost $11.5B last quarter

#14
post #6
post #4

Contrast this with Google who made $100Bn profit last quarter and on the side has Gemini with 650MAU and does 7B tokens/minute. It makes it clear that neither MS nor OAI know what they are doing.

Alphabet (Google) made $102.35 billion in revenue last quarter, not $100bn in profit.

Also most of it is from ads, not from their AI or cloud products. I wonder when OpenAI will start to serve ads as much as Google does, they certainly have people's attention a lot of times throughout the day looking at how people around me use their services.

Re: Microsoft seemingly just revealed that OpenAI lost $11.5B last quarter

#15
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What Theo claims on YouTube is that each model they make is profitable over its lifetime and the weird numbers for the company are because they keep training more models, having to pay up front to buy a bunch of future profit each time basically

The problem is that OpenAI will have to keep doing this basically indefinitely, as otherwise open-source commodity models will catch up with them and offer an equivalent product at a much lower cost. If the company is reliant on having to keep paying more than it's making on its current model to train new models, I don't see how it can ever become a sustainable business.

Not even just open source models - other commercial LLM models as well. All of the big LLM companies (Google, Anthropic, OpenAI) are basically ocked in a cold war of having to continuously outspend the other providers or risk becoming irrelevant.

The big question for me is if people will ever be happy with a model that is "good enough", and can thus be optimized and run profitably over time without faling behind. Time will tell!

Re: Microsoft seemingly just revealed that OpenAI lost $11.5B last quarter

#17
post #4

Contrast this with Google who made $100Bn profit last quarter and on the side has Gemini with 650MAU and does 7B tokens/minute. It makes it clear that neither MS nor OAI know what they are doing.

Not a single AI company is cash flow positive, not even Google's AI part of the business.

It's unclear if they even can be, since commodity models you can use for free catch up to them pretty close to yearly.

Re: Microsoft seemingly just revealed that OpenAI lost $11.5B last quarter

#19
this is bad reporting. microsoft's share of openai's cumulative loss over the lifetime of their investment is 11.5b. the microsoft share of openai's loss in the quarter was 4.1b, implying an 8b loss for openai itself assuming microsoft recognized 49% of openai losses per their ownership stake exiting the quarter. there may be some one time items that skew this, if not this is ain't good

Re: Microsoft seemingly just revealed that OpenAI lost $11.5B last quarter

#20

Their revenue in the entire first half per the article was $4.3B, even if we assume it was backloaded in Q2 that’s a -500% profit margin. I’m very excited to review their S-1. Like, for every dollar you give them they spend $5 to deliver the product. They’re selling $10 bills for $2. They seem to have taken the joke about making up losses with scale pretty seriously.

What Theo claims on YouTube is that each model they make is profitable over its lifetime and the weird numbers for the company are because they keep training more models, having to pay up front to buy a bunch of future profit each time basically

Future profit? Isn't that what every company in the red claims?

Ofcourse in the 21st century none of this actually matters people just want to buy low sell high.

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