When Will This Low-Innovation Era End? • Hacker News Board

Re: When Will This Low-Innovation Era End?

#11

Post by comicjk » Sat, Sep 22, 2012, 11:32 PM UTC

mynameishere wrote: post #8

thesash wrote: post #2

This is utter bullshit. Warren Ellis's excelent "How to see the future"[1], addresses why we're perpetually bored by the times we live in, and are always nostalgic about some bygone golden age: ...We look at the present day through a rear-view mirror. This is something Marshall McLuhan said back in the Sixties, when the world was in the grip of authentic- seeming future narratives. He said, “We look at the present th…

The point is that the difference between 1900 and 1960 is fundamental on every level. Carriages -> Cars Land Travel -> Aerospace Iceboxes at best -> Modern refrigeration Pen and Paper -> Computers Newspapers -> Ubiquitous electronic media. Living at the mercy of infectious diseases -> Antibiotics/vaccines. Coal (at best) -> Nuclear Outhouses -> Modern Plumbing and sanitation Etc. You could make similarly great compar…

| Pen and Paper -> Computers

Computers existed in 1960, but they didn't replace pen and paper (and electric typewriters) until the 1990s.

| Newspapers -> Ubiquitous electronic media.

This obviously happened after 1960. I do not consider TV and radio in 1960 to be functionally the same as the internet.

| Coal (at best) -> Nuclear

The first commercial nuclear point plant in the US was in 1958, and had a very primitive design. Nuclear power as we know it came about after 1960.

| What do we have now?

Several of the things you mentioned as coming before 1960, for a start.

Re: When Will This Low-Innovation Era End?

#12

Post by fooandbarify » Sat, Sep 22, 2012, 11:54 PM UTC

thesash wrote: post #2

This is utter bullshit. Warren Ellis's excelent "How to see the future"[1], addresses why we're perpetually bored by the times we live in, and are always nostalgic about some bygone golden age: ...We look at the present day through a rear-view mirror. This is something Marshall McLuhan said back in the Sixties, when the world was in the grip of authentic- seeming future narratives. He said, “We look at the present th…

"Science Fiction Condition". What an incredible way of putting it. Thanks for the link!

Re: When Will This Low-Innovation Era End?

#13

Post by ojosilva » Sat, Sep 22, 2012, 11:54 PM UTC

I think this is sort of a 80/20 situation, where the last 20% of the project is taking 80% of the time to complete -- the project here being the "migration" from the physical to the digital world. That's why change is not so palpable. This project is a great one nonetheless: we're redefining how humans relate to each other, how we handle and share knowledge, how we collaborate. I think these changes affect society in a more profound way than some great new device or technology.

Re: When Will This Low-Innovation Era End?

#14

Post by ippisl » Sat, Sep 22, 2012, 11:59 PM UTC

mynameishere wrote: post #8

thesash wrote: post #2

This is utter bullshit. Warren Ellis's excelent "How to see the future"[1], addresses why we're perpetually bored by the times we live in, and are always nostalgic about some bygone golden age: ...We look at the present day through a rear-view mirror. This is something Marshall McLuhan said back in the Sixties, when the world was in the grip of authentic- seeming future narratives. He said, “We look at the present th…

The point is that the difference between 1900 and 1960 is fundamental on every level. Carriages -> Cars Land Travel -> Aerospace Iceboxes at best -> Modern refrigeration Pen and Paper -> Computers Newspapers -> Ubiquitous electronic media. Living at the mercy of infectious diseases -> Antibiotics/vaccines. Coal (at best) -> Nuclear Outhouses -> Modern Plumbing and sanitation Etc. You could make similarly great compar…

If we accept the point that were just in the middle of the transition , and look a little bit forward, we'll see:

1960 -> 2025

Air travel -> life quality telepresence and group meetings globally

Expensive education -> free, high quality education for all

Antibiotics are great(but easy) -> tons of very difficult medical innovations(transplants,printing organs,cancer treatments,diagnostics, AI in medicine ...)

Everything needs workers -> So much can be done automatically, at extremely cheaper cost and extremely rapid pace.

Dirty energy -> Clean energy at competitive price(at least available if not deployed)

Manual cars -> automated cars (?)

We love lucy -> Extreme variety of content

Monopoly -> addictive digital experiences

It's easy to see big changes when you look over 60 years.

Re: When Will This Low-Innovation Era End?

#15

Post by indiecore » Sat, Sep 22, 2012, 11:59 PM UTC

marshallp wrote: post #4

It's ending right about now http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/18/science/a-robot-with-a-del... http://arxivindex.blogspot.ca/2012/09/new-form-of-universal-... http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2012/nanoelectronics-and-tissu...

That's not an ending, that's a continuation of the progress we've been making for decades. Someone just wanted to write a bitchy article in Wired because they aren't in Minority Report yet.

Re: When Will This Low-Innovation Era End?

#16

Post by josephlord » Sun, Sep 23, 2012, 12:02 AM UTC

Having globally usable handheld networked computers with location capability and voice and video communication capabilities that is simple enough for the average person to use is a pretty big innovation of the past decade.

Just look at the latest smartphones, they are amazing. That much computer, network, sensor and display power in that size of a package is incredible and real innovation even if it has been evolutionary over the last couple of decades rather than a single point revolution.

It has made room for a massive amount of minor steps in app development filling in the space created by the modern phone. There is still room for improvement, more accurate location will open further possibilities

Re: When Will This Low-Innovation Era End?

#17

Post by acoyfellow » Sun, Sep 23, 2012, 12:04 AM UTC

I honestly think that this line of thinking is now outdated. There will be a mental revolution for those who believe in this, because the rest of the world believes we are already in a revolution.. Stop being negative, make room for the people who are ready to innovate. Quit hating, in less words. There are generations who are adapting to this new environment, even if they don't realize it.

I'd say this: stop focusing on the negative and start being creative-- this article is just a bunch of bullshit excuses that will in itself slow innovation. Feed the hungry, don't kick them when they are down. "We" young entrepreneurs need inspiration now more than anything, not criticism. Big ideas are going to happen, regardless of you believing in them (yet).

The tools we all have access to is unbelievable. If you don't feel like the future is already here, and it's just prime time to start making the new generation of innovations using these tools, you're going to be left in the dust.

Innovation never goes anywhere it just needs time to adapt, I think.

Come and see me 5-10 years from now, and maybe I can say I told you so.

Re: When Will This Low-Innovation Era End?

#18

Post by derleth » Sun, Sep 23, 2012, 12:19 AM UTC

zizee wrote: post #7

Just because there is a lot of attention paid to the instagrams of the world does not mean there is nobody tackling big problems. Then the internet happened and everything got put on hold for a generation.” The ability for everyday man to broadcast is as big a revolution as the printing press. Typed from my glowing sheet of glass, from my couch, to be shared with the world.

> The ability for everyday man to broadcast is as big a revolution as the printing press.

In the words of Jason Scott:

> It is not unreasonable to say that a person putting up a web page might have a farther reach and greater potential audience than anyone in the history of their genetic line.

http://ascii.textfiles.com/archives/2402

Re: When Will This Low-Innovation Era End?

#19

Post by marshallp » Sun, Sep 23, 2012, 12:25 AM UTC

indiecore wrote: post #15

marshallp wrote: post #4

It's ending right about now http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/18/science/a-robot-with-a-del... http://arxivindex.blogspot.ca/2012/09/new-form-of-universal-... http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2012/nanoelectronics-and-tissu...

That's not an ending, that's a continuation of the progress we've been making for decades. Someone just wanted to write a bitchy article in Wired because they aren't in Minority Report yet.

I have to disagree a little there. There's been huge progress in communication but actual physical things (household robots or medical advances) not much. The linked-to articles (as well drones/robocars) show a beginning of a breakthrough in that sphere.

edit: I agree it's basically a continuation (cheaper) but you can say the same about internet (made in 60s but breakthrough in late 90s)

Re: When Will This Low-Innovation Era End?

#20

Post by pixie_ » Sun, Sep 23, 2012, 12:32 AM UTC

I believe it has been governments (societies) putting all its resources into something that has been the driver of pushing things forward. Corporations are experts at optimizing the status quo. Real progress takes real capital and great amounts of risk and investment that won't see returns for decades if ever.